The latest projection by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) that 2025 will likely become Nigeria’s second-hottest year on record is both alarming and instructive. It signals that climate change has moved from theoretical debate to lived experience, with implications that cut across agriculture, health, economy, and food security. The finding, contained in the WMO’s State of the Global Climate Update 2025, reinforces the need for urgent, sustained, and locally relevant climate action in Nigeria.
According to the report, the period 2015 to 2025 will mark the warmest 11 years in the 176-year global observational record, with 2025 ranking among the top three. The WMO further revealed that mean near-surface temperatures between January and August this year were 1.42°C above pre-industrial averages, driven by record concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. It warned that glaciers and sea ice are retreating, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events are causing widespread social and economic disruption.
For Nigeria, these trends are not abstract global phenomena; they are being felt daily, from droughts and heatwaves in the North to floods and coastal erosion in the South. Each passing year brings new evidence that the climate crisis is eroding livelihoods, displacing communities, and amplifying poverty.
At the COP30 held in Brazil, where Vice President Kashim Shettima represented President Bola Tinubu, the WMO’s warning offered an opportunity for sober reflection and renewed commitment. The conference, themed “Climate Action and Implementation,” underscored that the time for pledges has passed; what the world and Nigeria in particular need now is execution, accountability, and measurable outcomes.
The Nigerian economy remains heavily dependent on agriculture, which employs over 35% of the population and contributes about a quarter of the national GDP. Yet, this critical sector is the most vulnerable to climate variability. The expected heat extremes in 2025 threaten to undermine food production, aggravate rural poverty, and destabilise national food security.
Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns have already shortened growing seasons and disrupted planting calendars. Staple crops such as maize, rice, sorghum, and cassava are showing declining yields in several regions. In the North and Middle Belt, prolonged dry spells and advancing desertification are shrinking arable lands, while farmers in southern states face flooding and saline intrusion that destroy farmlands and contaminate freshwater sources.
Livestock farming is equally endangered. Heat stress reduces milk output and reproductive efficiency, while water scarcity forces herders to move farther south in search of pasture, fuelling farmer–herder conflicts that now carry deadly humanitarian and economic consequences. Moreover, rising temperatures expand the breeding grounds for pests and crop diseases, such as armyworms and locusts, which further threaten fragile harvests.
Without large-scale improvements in irrigation, heat-tolerant seed varieties and efficient land management, Nigeria could witness a 10 to 15 per cent reduction in agricultural productivity by 2026, according to projections by the Food and Agriculture Organisation. This decline would deepen hunger and push more rural families into destitution.
The economic implications of unmitigated warming are equally profound. Extreme heat reduces labour productivity, disrupts manufacturing, and increases electricity demand for cooling, thereby worsening the country’s chronic energy deficit. Infrastructure, already under stress, suffers repeated damage from floods and erosion. These disasters divert public funds from essential development projects toward relief and reconstruction.
Climate-linked inflation, especially food inflation, continues to squeeze household incomes. In 2025, food prices have risen by over 35 per cent, eroding purchasing power and worsening the cost-of-living crisis. For a country where more than 63 per cent of citizens live in multidimensional poverty, rising food costs translate directly into increased malnutrition, stunted growth in children, and social instability.
The World Bank estimates that climate-related disruptions could cost Nigeria up to six per cent of its GDP by 2030 if adaptation measures are not intensified. That figure represents millions of lost jobs, shuttered farms, and deepening inequality. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue; it is an economic emergency. Its impacts ripple across sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, health, and housing. Each year of inaction compounds future costs, eroding the nation’s development gains and undermining its pathway to sustainable growth.
The WMO’s projection raises urgent questions about Nigeria’s preparedness for another year of climatic volatility. Food insecurity, already at critical levels, could worsen if higher temperatures coincide with irregular rainfall and poor harvests. The FAO and WFP estimate that over 26 million Nigerians are currently facing acute food insecurity, a figure likely to rise as climate shocks multiply.
Food availability is under pressure due to declining yields and degraded soils. Access is constrained by high prices and weak transportation infrastructure. Utilisation, the nutritional value of the food available is declining as families resort to cheaper, less nutritious diets. In the North-East and North-West, where conflict and climate stress overlap, food insecurity has become a humanitarian crisis.
Without decisive intervention, Nigeria risks sliding towards chronic food dependence. Importing food to compensate for local shortfalls is not sustainable; it drains foreign reserves and exposes the nation to global market volatility. The only viable solution lies in building climate-smart agriculture, expanding irrigation, strengthening extension services, improving storage and distribution systems, and providing farmers with updated climate information and insurance mechanisms.
Despite policy progress, Nigeria remains underprepared for the magnitude of future climate risks. The National Climate Change Act (2021) and the establishment of the National Climate Change Council created a solid framework, but implementation has been slow and underfunded. Coordination between federal and state agencies remains weak, and the integration of climate goals into national planning is inconsistent.
NiMet’s seasonal forecasts and early warning systems have improved, but dissemination to rural communities is uneven. NEMA remains more reactive than preventive, constrained by limited funding.
In agriculture, less than seven per cent of farmland is irrigated, leaving farmers vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations. Research into climate-resilient crop varieties is underfunded, and Nigeria’s green finance ecosystem remains underdeveloped.
There are, however, emerging signs of hope. The Federal Ministry of Youth Development’s renewed commitment to support young Nigerians driving climate justice and sustainability is commendable.
Young innovators in renewable energy, recycling, technology, and agriculture are demonstrating that local solutions can drive national resilience. With targeted funding and policy support, these efforts could form the backbone of Nigeria’s green transition.
Nigeria must shift from a reactive posture to proactive climate planning. National resilience will require the integration of climate considerations across all ministries, from agriculture and housing to transportation and finance.
Climate-smart agriculture must be expanded urgently, including irrigation development, adoption of resilient crop varieties, mechanisation, and improved extension services. Renewable energy options should be scaled up to reduce pressure on the national grid, lower emissions, and support rural development.
Disaster preparedness and early warning systems must be strengthened, particularly in vulnerable communities, while investments in flood control infrastructure, drainage systems, and coastal protection should be accelerated.
Nigeria must treat the WMO projection as an immediate national priority. Rising heat levels threaten to reverse decades of development gains, and the cost of inaction will far outweigh the investments required today.
