TheThe Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said that while the decline in inflation suggests that macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to take effect, adjustments to CPI computation parameters have created credibility gaps, undermining the confidence of investors, analysts, businesses, and policymakers.

CPPE, in its policy brief on the December 2025 inflation figures released last week by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), noted that though the country has witnessed a steady 12 months of disinflation, recent changes in the methodology for computing the CPI have raised concerns about the credibility of the inflation data.

The NBS inflation figures showed that the headline inflation rate declined to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 from 34.80 per cent in December 2024, while food inflation also moderated to 10.84 per cent in December 2025 from 39.84 per cent in December 2024.
The decline was, however, achieved after the NBS rebased the CPI with 2024 as the base year instead of 2009, a process on which some experts have raised concerns.

CPPE, in the document signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, said while inflation is easing, the structural drivers of high costs — especially energy, transportation, logistics, and insecurity — remain firmly in place. It also noted another contradiction in the rising Core Inflation, which stood at 18.63 per cent despite exchange-rate stability. “This is inconsistent with macroeconomic fundamentals and suggests deeper structural pressures or possible statistical inconsistencies,” it said.

It called on NBS to review and improve CPI methodology to ensure alignment with economic realities.
Another area of concern identified by CPPE is the sharp decline in food prices which, though it has brought some relief to households, has at the same time created serious concerns about the sustainability of farmers’ investments, as their returns are being eroded.

It noted that addressing both affordability for consumers and investment viability for producers is now an urgent policy priority.

According to CPPE, food, housing, utilities, fuel, and transportation remain the dominant contributors to inflation, reflecting the sectors where Nigerians spend the bulk of their income. “It is therefore important that policy focus should target cost reductions in these sectors to accelerate disinflation and improve affordability,” it said.

“While consumers benefit from lower food prices, farmers face declining incomes amid rising input costs. This risks discouraging agricultural investment and threatening long-term food security. There should be a deliberate policy to reduce the cost of fertilisers, agrochemicals, and machinery, expand irrigation and mechanisation support, and introduce a minimum guaranteed pricing framework for staple crops.

“Such measures will restore the confidence of farmers in profitability prospects while sustaining affordability for households.”
Other recommendations by the Centre include intensifying efforts to reduce the cost of food, transportation, and utilities, addressing insecurity to boost agricultural supply, reducing input costs for farmers, lowering import duties on manufacturing inputs, and strengthening fiscal–monetary policy coordination.

It further noted that the December 2025 inflation data confirms that Nigeria’s inflation is moderating, driven largely by food price declines. “This is a positive development for households and economic stability,” it noted, but added that sustaining this progress requires urgent action to address structural cost pressures, support agricultural producers, and restore confidence in inflation data, insisting that without these measures, the gains in affordability and price stability may not endure.