The growing characterisation of the insecurity ravaging parts of Nigeria as genocide against Christians, and the consequent designation of the country as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) by the United States, is beginning to shape political calculations ahead of the 2027 general election, ADAMU ABUH and RAUF OYEWOLE report.

To be or not to be. That is the crucial question hanging over the possibility of the incumbent Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima, retaining his position on the presidential ticket as the running mate of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.

That such a staggering concern is emerging barely 13 months to the next general election and less than six months to the commencement of the candidate nomination processes underscores the intensity of pressure facing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as the defending champion in the 2027 contest.

Concerns about the feasibility of a same-faith ticket in a country almost evenly divided between Christians and Muslims gained traction after the then APC presidential nominee, Tinubu, settled for Shettima as his preferred running mate in 2022.

Those disconcerting negative optics had existed long before the recent U.S. interpretation. For some time, dating back to the annulled 1993 presidential election, believed to have been won by the Moshood Abiola–Babagana Kingibe ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, now President, had canvassed the possibility of a joint ticket of same-faith adherents.

Following his surprising emergence from the June 8, 2022, presidential primary and special convention of the APC, Tinubu was supported by a coterie of northern governors to actualise that vision by choosing a fellow Muslim to fly the party’s flag in the 2023 presidential election. On July 10, 2022, Kashim Shettima Mustapha, then a serving senator representing Borno Central, was announced as Tinubu’s running mate.

As expected, that announcement triggered a wave of opposition, leading to the spontaneous defection of some party loyalists from the North-East, including former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir David Lawal; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara; and public intellectual Daniel Bwala, among others.

Although the Tinubu–Shettima ticket went on to win the February 25, 2023, presidential election for the APC, murmurs against the Muslim–Muslim pairing persisted. Those muted objections gained intensity as insecurity in northern Nigeria worsened, culminating in mass abductions of schoolchildren and the killing of villagers.

Against that backdrop, the United States House of Representatives and Senate, led by Republican lawmakers Riley Moore of West Virginia, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Chris Smith of New Jersey, moved for the relisting of Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC).

They argued that the redesignation was intended to compel Nigeria to take decisive action against violent crimes and acts of terror perpetrated by Boko Haram and armed Fulani herders. On October 5, 2025, Riley Moore presented a letter to the U.S. House of Representatives seeking Nigeria’s return to the CPC list.

On October 31, 2025, President Donald Trump acted on the resolution of the House of Representatives, as well as a motion by Senator Cruz titled: ‘Nigeria Religious Freedom Accountability Act of 2025’, to designate Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern, threatening to direct the U.S. Department of Defence to bomb terrorist enclaves in Nigeria over the killings of Christians.

Political tremor
Immediately after the U.S. President issued those threats, debates over the implications of a Muslim–Muslim presidential ticket in a country with near parity between Christians and Muslims resurfaced.

That renewed interest sparked calls for a review of the Tinubu–Shettima ticket, with demands that a Christian be considered as a possible replacement for Shettima ahead of the 2027 general election.

As discussions over the viability of the current presidential configuration in Nigeria’s tense religious climate continued, APC stakeholders reportedly began quiet deliberations on rejigging the ticket, fuelling speculation that President Tinubu may sacrifice his Vice President to appease critics of the Muslim–Muslim arrangement.

As the speculation gained momentum, several names were floated, including the current Minister of Defence, retired General Christopher Musa, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara. Proponents argue that the same-faith ticket that delivered victory in 2023 may no longer retain its electoral potency.

Those advocating a revised ticket point to the large Christian population in Southern Nigeria, the Middle Belt, and Christian-majority enclaves in the North, areas where Tinubu is seeking to consolidate support for a second term.

The speculation intensified after the APC caucus in the National Assembly endorsed Tinubu for a second term but conspicuously omitted any reference to Shettima. The silence unsettled party leaders, particularly in the North-East, where Shettima served two terms as governor of Borno State and retains a strong political base.

Although the controversy initially subsided, it resurfaced sharply following Trump’s remarks, which were widely amplified by evangelical and conservative media platforms in the United States and Africa.

Trump accused Nigerian authorities of failing to protect Christians from what he described as “systematic persecution,” warning that he would not hesitate to “hit terror enclaves responsible for genocide against Christians in Nigeria.” While diplomatic officials have downplayed the likelihood of U.S. military intervention, the political ramifications were immediate.

The APC now faces mounting pressure from Christian groups, civil society organisations, and international actors, prompting renewed internal reassessment of whether a Muslim–Muslim ticket remains politically sustainable ahead of 2027.

Deepening internal rift
Within APC circles, Trump’s strong words have split the debate into familiar but sharper camps. One bloc insists the party must abandon the Muslim–Muslim ticket, arguing that religious sensitivities have heightened and that Tinubu should prioritise balance. They believe ignoring Christian agitation could prove politically costly, especially with increasing international awareness. For these stakeholders, Trump’s remarks are not merely a foreign-policy episode but a signal that the world is watching how Nigeria navigates religion and governance.

The counter-argument, driven largely by northern political heavyweights and some southwest strategists, is that competence, not religion, should determine the 2027 ticket. They cite historical voting behaviour, arguing that Nigerians vote more on regional alignments, economic concerns, and political structures than on faith identity.

Yet a third camp, focused on electoral arithmetic, argues that Nigeria’s religious demography makes it extremely difficult for a southern Muslim presidential candidate to pick a northern Christian running mate and still retain majority support in the North. They reference the 1993 example of Chief MKO Abiola, who, despite pressure to choose a northern Christian, settled for Babagana Kingibe, a northern Muslim. The same logic informed Tinubu’s 2023 choice of Shettima.

For these strategists, states such as Kano, Borno, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Bauchi, and Niger, core Muslim-majority strongholdsremain crucial battlegrounds where religious symbolism often outweighs political nuance. A Muslim–Christian pairing, they fear, could fracture northern voting blocs and empower opposition mobilisation through clerical and conservative networks.

Regardless of position, insiders agree on one thing: Trump’s comments have transformed what was previously quiet whispering into more structured political consultations. Party elders, governors, and federal power brokers are engaging more frequently on the matter, aware that Nigeria’s religious equilibrium, coupled with global attention, may shape one of the APC’s most consequential decisions in a decade.

Data versus demography
Fresh demographic estimates shed more light on the religious distribution across Northern Nigeria, underscoring why the debate has returned with such intensity. Figures drawn from the 2024 Nigeria Full Country Dossier by Open Doors, alongside population projections from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and United Nations bulletins, show that while Muslims are majorities in two of the three northern zones, Christians constitute a formidable bloc in the North-Central.

The North-West—Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara—has about 54.8 million people, of whom only 12.5 per cent (6.87 million) are Christians. This makes it the most religiously homogeneous zone.

In the North-East—Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe—Christians make up 21.6 per cent (6.35 million of 29.4 million), while Muslims constitute roughly 78.4 per cent. Taraba, as well as parts of Adamawa and Bauchi, contain significant Christian communities, but overall the zone remains predominantly Muslim.

The North-Central—Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, and the FCT—presents a different picture. With 50.7 per cent Christians (16.64 million of 32.8 million), it is the most religiously mixed region and often decides tight national elections.

Nationally, the Pew Research Center estimates Nigeria’s population at 56 per cent Muslim and 43 per cent Christian, near parity. However, the regional contrasts are sharp. The demographic picture helps explain electoral behaviour: while the North-West and North-East often vote more cohesively along political structures aligned with majority Muslim sentiment, the North-Central remains highly competitive.

Security analysts warn that the lack of recent census data means these figures should be viewed as indicative rather than definitive. Nevertheless, the estimates offer one of the clearest contemporary snapshots of religious concentration and are increasingly influential as parties prepare for 2027.

APC’s Stunning Silence
Despite the significance of Trump’s remarks, APC officials have remained tight-lipped. Several party leaders declined to comment, insisting privately that the issue “has nothing to do with what President Trump said.” Yet, others acknowledge that the comments, though foreign, have entered domestic political calculations.

However, former lawmaker for Epe Federal Constituency (2011–2015), Lanre Odubote, warned that attempts to alter a “winning team” ahead of 2027 could be politically dangerous.

He cited the example of the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola, who, despite intense pressure in 1993 to pick the late NLC President, Pascal Bafyau, a northern Christian, as his running mate, declined. “Abiola had the option of Atiku Abubakar and Babagana Kingibe, both northern Muslims, and he settled for Kingibe,” he noted. Odubote added that Vice President Kashim Shettima commands a strong political structure across the North-East, having served as governor and senator. “We should look beyond religion and focus on building a winning strategy for 2027,” he said.

Corroborating Odubote’s position, veteran journalist and APC chieftain from Osun State, Alhaji Liadi Tella, argued that the Tinubu–Shettima administration has not undermined Christians since taking office in 2023. According to him, Christians have received more appointments than Muslims, an imbalance he said some Muslims, including himself, often question, given the support the Muslim community offered Tinubu in 2023.

Despite the mounting pressure, a significant bloc within the APC maintains that changing the ticket now would be unwise. Tella insists that the Tinubu–Shettima pairing proved effective in 2023 and remains the party’s most stable route to 2027. Any disruption, he warned, could fracture the delicate coalition that brought the APC to power, especially as the North-West, Nigeria’s highest voting bloc, remains firmly aligned with the Muslim–Muslim ticket. A shift, he argued, could dampen enthusiasm among core supporters.

But taking a different position, Dr Dominic Alancha, a prominent APC chieftain and chairman of the Coalition of Northern Ethnic Nationalities Forum, maintained that the political climate has changed significantly since 2023. He cautioned that repeating the same-faith formula in 2027 could prove costly.

“The Muslim–Muslim ticket is not going to fly in 2027,” he said. “The opposition is reorganising. A Christian running mate will broaden the APC’s appeal and prevent backlash from Christian voters who already feel alienated.”

The Middle Belt Forum (MBF), led by Dr Bitrus Pogu, echoes this sentiment. While welcoming the appointment of a Christian national chairman for the APC, the group argues that genuine inclusion must extend to the executive. Pogu stresses that a Christian vice president would strengthen national unity and better reflect Nigeria’s diversity.

Amid the political storm, security experts warn that viewing Nigeria’s complex security crisis solely through the lens of religious persecution is misleading. Dr Kabiru Muktar of the University of Maiduguri describes Trump’s remarks as “emotionally charged but analytically flawed,” noting that both Christian and Muslim communities suffer devastating attacks in the North.

According to him, the drivers of violence, banditry, farmer–herder conflicts, and insurgency, are layered, and political actors, both local and foreign, often amplify narratives that align with their interests.
North-East: Loyalty or Strategy

The North-East, home of the vice president, is increasingly divided. While some believe Shettima should remain on the ticket, others argue that the region would not oppose Tinubu if he chose another running mate.

Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum emphasises Shettima’s importance, insisting that the Tinubu–Shettima ticket should remain intact and that the vice president’s name must appear alongside Tinubu in 2027.

However, a different stance comes from Gombe APC publicity secretary Moses Kyari, who says the region would not resist the President if Shettima were dropped. According to him, “We have over 1,000 competent people who can replace Shettima if the President chooses another direction.”

Tough Choices Ahead
The APC now sits at the intersection of diplomacy, domestic politics, regional sensitivities, and shifting electoral realities. With 2027 drawing nearer, pressure for religious balancing is stronger than at any point since 2022. The composition of the party’s presidential ticket may ultimately define not only the APC’s electoral prospects but also Nigeria’s political atmosphere.

For now, the party maintains a cautious silence, but the undercurrents reveal a ruling party wrestling with one of the most delicate decisions in its political history.