While there are concerns about imbalanced representation, political manipulation and data integrity regarding the constitution of Nigeria’s census committee, AMEH OCHOJILA reports that the growing unpopularity of national headcounts across the globe in an era of administrative data collections, birth and death registrations, makes the idea of a census committee irrelevant.

The constitution of a new census committee by President Ahmed Bola Tinubu has opened an old wound in Nigeria’s political discourse – the polarising role of population data in governance. As the country edges closer to another national headcount, the familiar anxieties have returned about ethnic balance, regional representation and the sheer credibility of the process.

The stakes are always high each time a head count is proposed in Nigeria. This is because census figures in Nigeria are not merely numbers; they are the currency of political power and fiscal allocation.

The question that readily comes to mind in the mix of this controversy is: What, then, is the relevance of a census committee in the face of an emerging global and local push for data-driven alternatives? This question becomes even more urgent considering that Nigeria already has access to a growing web of administrative data sources – school enrolment records, birth registration, health indices and biometric identity systems such as the National Identification Number (NIN).

These tools, if properly coordinated, could provide a more cost-effective headcount given the humongous amount of funds needed to execute the headcount, and could arguably provide a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s demographic landscape.

The National Population Commission (NPC) had proposed a budget of N18.2 billion for the population census initiative, with additional funding of N1.1 billion specifically allocated for the National Population and Housing Census.

Yet, the newly constituted committee seems to affirm a continued preference for the traditional census model – an expensive, episodic and politically volatile approach.
Already, suspicions have been raised that the committee’s makeup reflected patterns aimed at marginalisation.

Certain regions and ethnic groups, they claimed, are underrepresented or altogether absent, rekindling suspicions that the process is designed less to count the people and more to count them out.

In response, the Presidency has dismissed media criticism on the newly formed committee, describing the negative reactions as “laughable and ill-informed.”

Defending the constitution of the committee in a post on his X account, Special Assistant to the President on Social Media, Segun Dada, explained that each member was selected for their suitability and relevance to the task assigned by President Tinubu to prepare a report on the upcoming population census.

According to Dada, apart from the Principal Secretary to the President, who represents the President directly, other members hold portfolios critical to the planning and execution of a credible census.

This scepticism, to some people, is truly not unfounded. Census exercises in Nigeria have historically been marred by controversy – from accusations of inflated figures to allegations of deliberate undercounting in certain zones.

In this context, the composition of the census committee is not just a technical concern but a signal, a message about who holds sway and whose numbers matter.

The inclusion or exclusion of demographic markers like ethnicity and state of origin, reportedly under review by the committee, further fans these flames.

Overruling self-identification in these sensitive categories could trigger a fresh legitimacy crisis, especially in a federation that remains deeply reliant on identity-based allocation mechanisms.

But even if we turn away from politics and focus purely on efficiency, the argument for administrative data as an alternative to the traditional census is compelling, at least on paper. These datasets are already embedded in daily governance.

They are collected continuously, making them potentially more responsive to population dynamics. In theory, they could render the periodic, labour-intensive census obsolete.

However, this vision may collapse under serious scrutiny. Nigeria’s administrative data landscape suffers from fundamental weaknesses. The birth registration system, for example, remains grossly inadequate.

Data from UNICEF estimates that fewer than 60 per cent of children under five are registered, with lower rates in rural and conflict-affected areas. Therefore, relying on such a system risks excluding millions from visibility and access to services, compounding existing inequalities.

Some statisticians also observed that the country’s data ecosystem is fragmented and uncoordinated.

There is little interoperability between databases managed by different institutions – birth registries, school records, NIN and health systems operate in silos, with no overarching architecture to harmonise them. Such a lack of integration renders national population estimates derived from administrative data both incomplete and inconsistent.

The quality of the available data is another concern. Much of it is collected manually, plagued by inaccuracies and vulnerable to manipulation. In education, for example, there have been reported cases of inflated school enrolment figures to attract more funding.

Without a rigorous verification mechanism, administrative data can become just as compromised as the census it seeks to replace.

Technological and infrastructural limitations further complicate the shift toward a data-driven census model. Many local government areas lack the tools, connectivity and personnel to collect and update digital records in real time.

The logistical challenges of synchronising data across Nigeria’s 774 local government areas are significant and seemingly insurmountable without major investment and reform.

According to Tony Victor, a development expert, administrative data does not lend itself as easily to the political negotiation and rebalancing that the census allows. For all its flaws, the census has become part of Nigeria’s political grammar – a structured opportunity for various interests to stake their claims in the national pie
He observed that replacing it with an opaque, technical process could alienate actors, who see the census as one of the few avenues for asserting their numerical and political weight.

The resistance, he said, is not just bureaucratic; it is existential.
“In light of these dynamics, the reconstitution of the census committee, while backwards-looking in form, may be politically expedient.

It offers the appearance of inclusion, the semblance of accountability and a platform, however flawed, for competing narratives to be heard and negotiated.

“The danger, however, is that it becomes yet another ritual, expensive, divisive and ultimately unhelpful in delivering the accurate data the country desperately need for meaningful development”, he said.

According to Victor, to move forward, Nigeria must invest in strengthening its civil registration systems, harmonising administrative data platforms and building a unified national database that earns public trust.

This, he said, will take time, money and most importantly, political will. He argued that until then, the census committee remains a necessary but deeply compromised mechanism – a mirror reflecting Nigeria’s unresolved contradictions between data, identity and power.

To Olajide Abiodun, Notary Public and Vice Chairman, Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Ikorodu Branch, the traditional census remains essential because administrative data often lacks completeness, standardisation and real-time accuracy.

He advised that concerns about political influence in the census committee should be addressed through transparency, expert inclusion and adherence to demographic best practices.

Lecturer, Department of Mass Communication and Media Studies, Miva Open University, Abuja, Enoch Israel, argued that despite the availability of administrative data such as birth registration, school enrolment and NIN, a traditional census is still necessary in Nigeria.

Israel said that not all people in the rural areas give birth in hospitals, where child births are recorded. “Secondly, we have many out-of-school children in Nigeria, especially in the northern part of the country. Thus, using birth registration or school enrolment as the primary source of population data may not be valid”, he argued.

He added that many young children in rural areas do not have the NIN, as most of them only register for it when they get to the age where it is required, mostly when it is time for them to open bank accounts, register for JAMB or other important social services.

Furthermore, using administrative data as a source of information for population data, he stressed, may not be sufficient for research purposes.

“We have many scholars, academicians and students in tertiary institutions who conduct research. These researchers always source population data to conduct their studies.

However, they cannot use administrative data to determine the total number of people in a particular town, local government, state or country, to conduct their studies.
“They need quality data like those obtained from a national census. Hence, the traditional census is still important.

“Regarding the newly constituted census committee, I think the selection wasn’t done objectively. How can a seven-man committee have five people from a particular region and only two people from other regions? The North-East, South-East and South-South were completely neglected, without any representatives in the committee.

“As such, I think it reflects political priorities rather than demographic and national considerations”, he said.

Executive Director, Saint Anthony Hope Initiative Foundation, a civil society group committed to societal development, Emmanuel Audu, believed that Nigeria’s continued dependence on traditional, decennial census exercises is outdated in today’s digital age.

He argued that the country already has access to reliable, real-time population data through various administrative systems such as the NIN, Bank Verification Number (BVN), birth and death registration systems, immunisation records and school enrolment data.

These sources, many of which are biometrically verified and continuously updated, he stated, offer a more efficient, cost-effective and politically neutral alternative to the conventional census.

He pointed out that data collected through these channels will provide a continuous stream of information, unlike censuses that become outdated shortly after they are conducted.

His words: “Systems like the BVN and NIN already capture a significant portion of the Nigerian population and provide valuable demographic insights. Additionally, data from health and education sectors can be analysed to understand population distribution, age structures, and regional trends.”

Audu also highlighted the financial burden of conducting a traditional census, referencing the over N869 billion budgeted for the 2023 exercise. He suggested that these resources could be better spent on strengthening and integrating existing data infrastructure.

Furthermore, he expressed concern over the political makeup of the current census committee, arguing that it lacked demographic expertise and strong regional affiliations.

According to him, those have cast doubt on the credibility of the census process. “In contrast, administrative data, when anonymised and centrally managed, is less susceptible to political manipulation”, he pointed out.

Citing international examples from countries like Finland, Estonia, Norway and India, he argued that administrative data systems are being used successfully for national planning and population tracking.

He urged Nigeria to embrace a modern, integrated data ecosystem to improve transparency, planning and public trust rather than continuing with a flawed, expensive and politicised census tradition.

Another lawyer, Omale Ajonye, argued that while administrative records like school enrolment and national ID systems provide useful demographic information, they are often incomplete by excluding marginalised populations such as undocumented migrants and those in informal settlements.

“Traditional censuses, in contrast, strive for universal coverage and offer a synchronised snapshot of the population at a specific time”, he explained.

According to him, they also provide a depth of data necessary for planning, constituency mapping and equitable resource allocation – data that administrative systems, especially in places with weak coordination like Nigeria, are not yet equipped to deliver.

Additionally, censuses, he said, serve as a baseline for validating and improving the quality of administrative datasets, adding that concerns about the political nature of recently formed census committees are valid, particularly in multi-ethnic and politically diverse settings, where demographic data can be sensitive.

He said: “Allegations of politicisation often stem from fears about gerrymandering or skewed resource distribution. However, rather than dismissing these fears, there should be greater transparency and oversight.

“There should be the inclusion of civil society, academics and international bodies to ensure credibility. While political appointees may be present, technical leadership must rest with professionals – statisticians and demographers from the National Population Commission.

“Over time, integrating census efforts with robust administrative data can help reduce political manipulation and strengthen public trust.”