Nigeria’s fast-growing delivery and logistics sector, projected to hit $15.05 billion by 2030, is facing a critical threat that infrastructure and investment alone cannot fix. While millions of e-commerce transactions now depend on dispatch riders and last-mile operators to move goods across cities, a rising wave of theft, diversion of items, and service manipulation is eroding consumer confidence in the system, CHIDINMA ENWEANI reports.

Nigeria is a maritime-driven import economy with over 95 per cent of imports arriving through seaports, while the distribution is mainly road-based, accounting for over 80 per cent of goods movement. This shows that logistics is foundational to the country’s productivity.

According to the World Bank’s 2023–2024 Logistics Performance Index, Nigeria ranks 88th, underscoring the need for stronger policies and infrastructure.

Findings by The Guardian indicate that no fewer than 120 million e-commerce orders are placed yearly in Nigeria, indicating a high volume of transactions and heavy reliance on courier and logistics services, particularly last-mile delivery within urban centres. However, small-scale logistics operators continue to struggle due to a trust deficit caused by a fraction of operators, which may hobble the $15.05 billion forecast growth by 2030.

Experts warned that a single bad experience can negatively influence customers’ loyalty, pushing them back to traditional services, whether in cooking, in-store shopping or running their own errands, which will in turn stall the growth of the service-on-demand economy.

The reality of this development is best illustrated by a recent incident involving a Lagos rental studio owner who simply identified himself as Chinedu. Chinedu rented out a professional Sony FX3 camera worth about N5 million. Following his usual routine, he sent the camera to a client using a dispatch rider.

Unfortunately, the rider, he said, never arrived at his expected destination. He allegedly diverted the delivery, disabled the tracking app, and switched off his phone.

“The client was left stranded, and I had to find another camera for the client,” he lamented. After 24 hours, the studio owner began a search. Using data from the app and posting his pictures on different social media platforms. The rider was eventually traced to a restaurant in the Ilupeju area of Lagos after Chinedu employed the services of an investigative police team to track the suspect.

He said: “During questioning, the rider confessed that he had sold the camera, lens, and microphone to different people in Ikeja. Because he did not know the true value of the gadgets, he sold items worth millions for just N500,000.

“This led to a long recovery process. The rider sold my gadgets to different vendors, and the vendors who bought the gadgets had already resold them to people in other states like Abeokuta (Ogun State) and Ibadan (Oyo State). It took eight days of tracking and several arrests across different states to finally get my complete set of equipment back.”

While Chinedu battled to recover his gadget, on X one @y4yi, mentioned a situation where a rider substituted snacks with cheaper ones from a different restaurant to pocket the price difference. According to him, someone had ordered meat pie, chicken pie and sausage roll from a restaurant (name withheld) through a delivery company.

He reported that the rider went to another restaurant to buy the snacks because it was cheaper there and allegedly bought only the sausage roll from the primary restaurant he was sent to, so he could pack everything inside the restaurant’s nylon.

The experiences of Chinedu and @y4yi mirror the daily encounters of many Nigerians who patronise e-commerce platforms and, therefore, must engage the logistics industry operators.

Interestingly, the logistics sub-sector was estimated at $10.95 billion in 2025 and projected to grow to $15.05 billion by 2030 by the global market research and consultancy company, Mordor Intelligence. The research company considered e-commerce expansion, port modernisation, trade infrastructure, transport infrastructure improvements, trade growth, regional integration, logistics digitisation, and third-party logistics growth to arrive at its projected growth for the sector in Nigeria.

On average, the cost of using these services ranges from N2,500 to N10,000, depending on your location and the items you require for delivery. Statistics available indicate that there are at least 2,000 identified bikes on the road used for logistics business.

Major players like Glovo, Chowdeck and DHL are responsible for staffing the large number of riders on the road. In fact, the trio is responsible for about 70 per cent of employees in the sector. Chowdeck, a leader in on-demand delivery, experienced a 1,200 per cent revenue increase between 2022 and 2023. By 2024, it surpassed N30 billion in Gross Merchandise Value, claiming profitability and securing $9 million in funding by August 2025.

Similarly, Glovo has solidified its presence, reporting a 76 per cent surge in quick commerce in Nigeria for 2024. Between 2021 and 2024, Glovo and its partners generated over N71 billion (an estimated $42 million) in revenue within the country, while global giants like DHL Group reflect a normalisation of the market, with revenues of €84.2 billion in 2024.

GIGM.com (God is Good Motors) continues to dominate the land transport and cargo space through digitisation. However, like many in the sector, it faces significant headwinds as fuel prices spike following the removal of petrol subsidies.

These companies move goods worth billions of Naira yearly across all sectors, yet their successes hinge on the individual integrity of thousands of drivers and riders. Many of these logistics firms do not actually have Goods in Transit Insurance in the event of an incident involving any of the goods in their care.

A rider and the owner of Jack & P Logistics, Ofili Anochie, advised logistics companies to plan their routes carefully and use necessary measures to employ personnel for their companies. According to him, orders should be delivered as soon as possible from one location to the other to avoid wasted time.

Anochie also canvassed training, orientation, and background checks for delivery personnel to ensure the business maintains its trustworthiness and continues to contribute positively to the country’s GDP, while providing employment for the army of unemployed youths.

He said: “When we bring in new drivers, we train them to represent the company well. If we don’t, they will just do things their own way. As an owner, I try to motivate my drivers and offer bonuses. This makes them want to work hard. The truth is that many riders have their own personal customers.

“Sometimes, they leave the company’s work to do their own personal business first. This wastes time and diverts orders. Also, some riders just behave poorly even if they are encouraged with a bonus.”

Anochie said it was necessary for companies to keep track of riders before and after they get employed, linking the bad behaviour to a system that lacks proper documentation and accountability. He insisted that every driver have a profile that must be updated regularly.

For a Chowdeck rider, Olamilekan Wealth, the pressure to survive is high. Wealth explained that sometimes the food ordered from a particular restaurant may not be ready, while the app has already notified the customer of the delivery period.

He said: “For many riders, the pay barely covers fuel, maintenance, data and living. When working longer hours with no progress, survival pressure leads to temptation. Some of the riders use other means to get what they want.

Nigeria’s traffic is unpredictable and sometimes causes late deliveries. Bad roads, potholes, floods, and sudden diversions also force drivers to reroute. Climate change makes riding dangerous. Heavy rain, dust, and extreme heat reduce visibility and affect brakes, so safety must come first.”

Wealth declared that most of the delivery companies have disciplinary measures against riders who deliver wrong items to customers, but insisted that some of the circumstances may be beyond the riders.