The full effects of the disruption caused by the Israel-United States-Iran war on Nigeria’s economy are manifesting as headline inflation rose from 15.06 per cent in February to 15.38 per cent in March 2026.

Before the Israel-U.S. and Iran war started on February 28, 2026, crude oil was trading around $70.

With the Strait of Hormuz becoming unpassable by oil cargoes, crude rose to around $120 per barrel in March 2026.

The March 2026 consumer price index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), indicated that the headline inflation rate was 4.18 per cent on a month-on-month basis.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, 2.17 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in February 2026, which stood at 2.01 per cent.

This means that the rate of increase in the average price level was higher in March 2026 than in February 2026.

The report indicated that the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 14.31 per cent, while on a month-on-month basis, it was 4.17 per cent.

The NBS stated that the percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending March 2026, compared with the average for the previous twelve-month period, was 20.05 per cent, representing a 1.48 per cent increase from the 18.58 per cent recorded in March 2025.

Food inflation rate in March 2026 was 14.31 per cent year-on-year, compared with 25.22 per cent in the same month of 2025.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.17 per cent, 0.52 percentage points down from February 2026, which was 4.69 per cent.

The upside can be attributed to a change in the average prices of yams, ginger (Fresh), cassava tubers, groundnuts (shelled), Irish potatoes, avenger (Ogbono/Apon), among others.

Bayelsa state recorded the highest inflation figure at 27.37 per cent. Sokoto state came second at 26.03 per cent, while Bauchi was third, hitting 23.67 per cent.

Osun, with 5.25 per cent, Kano (9.85 per cent) and Kaduna, recording 10.38 per cent, had the slowest inflation rates across states.

On a month-on-month basis, however, March recorded the highest increase in Zamfara (10.77 per cent), Bauchi (9.37 per cent) and Sokoto (9.05 per cent). Lagos recorded 1.54 per cent, Akwa Ibom (1.8 per cent) and Rivers recorded (1.89 per cent) among the states with the lowest rise.

Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, has decried the March inflation, saying it signals a worrying resurgence of inflationary pressures, particularly on a month-on-month basis.

He noted that while recent months have reflected a gradual moderation in year-on-year inflation, the latest data show a steady rise in inflation.

This development, he said, underscores the fragility of the disinflation process and raises concerns about renewed cost pressures in the economy.

He said the uptick is reflective of renewed energy price pressures, which continue to permeate production, transportation and distribution costs across the economy. He said energy remains a critical cost driver in Nigeria, given the persistent reliance on gas, diesel and petrol for power generation, logistics and industrial operations.

He warned that this inflation would lead to erosion of real incomes and purchasing power, rising cost of living pressures, increased poverty and vulnerability and heightened inequality across regions and income groups.

He urged governments at all levels to prioritise interventions in agricultural productivity and public transportation infrastructure.