Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, has warned that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East could pose risks to the implementation of the 2026 budget, despite potential gains from higher oil prices.

Speaking on a TVC news programme yesterday, Yusuf said that while the crisis may boost government revenue through rising crude oil prices, it also introduces uncertainty that could affect fiscal projections and budget execution.

He noted that oil prices have climbed to between $90 and $100 per barrel in recent weeks, significantly above the $64 benchmark used in the budget. This, he said, could improve revenue performance and support implementation.

However, Yusuf cautioned that the situation remained a “double-edged sword” as volatility in the global oil market could disrupt projections underpinning the budget.

He noted that while rising oil prices could boost revenue, the uncertainty around global developments remains a concern.

According to him, part of Nigeria’s oil output is already committed to forward sales and joint venture arrangements, limiting the extent to which higher prices can translate into actual revenue for the government.

The economist stressed that weak revenue performance has been a major factor behind poor budget implementation in recent years, particularly for capital projects.

He added that though the 2026 budget is ambitious with N32.2 trillion allocated to capital expenditure, the budget’s success would depend largely on the government’s ability to realise its revenue targets.

While describing the 2026 budget as “ambitious”, Yusuf noted that its execution would depend on realistic assumptions and improved revenue flows.

He also pointed to Nigeria’s rising debt service burden, estimated at N15 trillion this year, as another constraint on implementation, noting that it significantly limits fiscal space.

He urged the government to strengthen fiscal discipline, improve revenue remittances and prioritise spending to ensure that the budget delivers on its objectives despite the uncertain global environment.