Regardless of its position as the world’s largest cassava producer, Nigeria appears to have failed to harness this status and consolidate its profile as formidable exporter.

According to the United Nations Comtrade database, Nigeria exported roughly 5,000 metric tonnes of cassava products in 2023, about one per cent of its production volume, while Thailand, which produces just about half of Nigeria’s output, exported about seven million metric tonnes of cassava-based derivatives, which is about 21 per cent of its production, in the same year.

Stakeholders say while the gap points to a clear opportunity for Nigeria, it also unravel the fact that high production alone does not create export competitiveness. This has raised a very germane question on which cassava derivatives can be exported competitively, into which markets, and under what operating conditions.

Industry analysts noted that commercial viability depends on whether the country’s processors can compete on product specification, scale, landed cost, and commercial credibility. According to the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA) insight, some pathways appear credible in the near term, while others remain attractive in theory but difficult in practice.

The NCIA insight listed exporting of native starch into China; sweeteners into other African markets; cassava chips into China; and starch export into Europe as the credible route where Nigerian processors can close the gaps and maximize the potential in the industry.

While describing exportation of native starch into China as the clearest near-term opening, NCIA noted that data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) suggests China is the world’s largest cassava starch import market, taking in more than 3.8 million metric tonnes yearly.

It added that industry interviews suggest some buyers are actively looking to diversify away from Thai and Vietnamese supply, creating a possible opening for new entrants with reliable output and competitive pricing.

NCIA added that native starch into China matters because the market is large, established, and already oriented toward a product that some Nigerian processors produce today, but that does not remove the usual export challenges.

“Industry engagement suggests this route is most credible for processors that can deliver consistent product quality, support export cycles with adequate working capital, and fulfill repeat orders with reliable shipment performance. They would also need to land starch competitively against prevailing import prices of $518 to $594 per tonne.”

NCIA confirmed that exportation of sweeteners into markets in the continent has a lot of potentials, as it may offer the most strategic medium-term play.

“Trade data for 2024 suggests regional demand for sweeteners like glucose and sorbitol for African countries excluding Nigeria, stands at roughly 300,000 to 400,000 metric tonnes. Kenya, South Africa and Egypt together, account for about a fifth to a quarter of total African demand.

“Nigerian processors looking to export glucose or sorbitol into African food and beverage markets would need to meet food-grade specifications consistently, including the purity and performance requirements that allow manufacturers to use those inputs reliably in downstream formulations.

“This pathway is not limited to Nigeria’s existing sweetener producers or new greenfield plants. It is also plausible for existing starch processors that are sufficiently capitalised to add downstream conversion capacity, move into higher-value derivatives like sweeteners, and can operate the food-grade quality systems required by buyers.”

NCIA insight further revealed that in target markets, trade data suggest incumbent import prices for glucose and sorbitol are already established within a relatively competitive range, adding that Nigerian processors would therefore need to land products competitively to win share.

While citing the trade data, NCIA said China has imported an average of five million metric tonnes of cassava chips yearly over the past decade, with trade worth more than $1b yearly at prevailing FOB prices of about $222 per tonne.

“Industry engagement indicates that the chips are used primarily as feedstock for ethanol production. Buyers assess chips against clear technical thresholds: starch content of at least 67 per cent, moisture below 14 per cent, fibre below five per cent, and sand and silica below three per cent. For Nigerian processors looking to export, the first requirement is the ability to produce and aggregate chips to these specifications consistently.

“Chinese ethanol buyers also operate at volumes far beyond what most Nigerian processors currently supply. Industry engagement suggests buyers may require 700 to 1,400 metric tonnes of chips per day, while even brokered entry points are more practical at around 200 metric tonnes a day. By contrast, most Nigerian processors operate at much smaller scale (15 – 30 metric tonnes per day), which means processors are unlikely to serve this market without significantly higher utilisation, expanded capacity, or aggregation across multiple sources.

“Industry interviews suggest Free On Board (FOB) chip prices of about $222 per tonne from Thailand or Vietnam, compared with around $250 from Nigeria. Freight to China is estimated at roughly $12 per tonne from Southeast Asia, versus about $75 from Nigeria. On a pro forma CIF basis, this implies a cost gap of roughly $91 per tonne that Nigerian exporters would need to close to compete credibly in the market,” the report said.

The report also states that Europe offers demand for starch, though not a strong fit with Nigeria’s current product base. According to Trade data, the EU imports roughly 150,000 to 200,000 metric tonnes of cassava starch a year. The difficulty is that 60 to 70 per cent of this is modified starch, while Nigerian processors remain concentrated in native starch.

“That makes Europe harder to penetrate not because the market is small, but because the product profile is misaligned. However, this does not rule out Europe altogether. But it does imply that there are two pathways to playing in the EU market: either invest in modification capability directly, or supply intermediaries that process native starch further for downstream use.

“Even then, success for Nigerian processors would depend on proving continuity of supply, consistent quality, and enough commercial credibility to enter a relationship-driven market already well served by established suppliers.”

NCIA stressed that though the country’s cassava export opening is real, but it will not be captured by scale alone, or by treating “cassava exports” as a single opportunity, stating that the more credible route lies in a smaller set of derivative-market matches where the country’s processors can close the gaps on scale, cost and specification.