The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is emerging as a major driver of Nigeria’s improving economic outlook, following the country’s sovereign credit rating upgrade by S&P Global Ratings.

In its latest assessment, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s long term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to “B” from “B-”, citing stronger economic growth, improved external balances, rising oil production, and expanded domestic refining capacity as key factors sup- porting Nigeria’s recovery.

The global ratings agency specifically identified the operational ramp up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery as a major contributor to Nigeria’s improving balance of payments position and broader economic resilience.

Also, Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to rise to 5.8 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 from 4.8 per cent in 2025, with S&P attributing the improvement partly to increased domestic refining at the refinery and rising hydrocarbon exports. It said the refinery is strengthening Nigeria’s current account surplus, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, and improve foreign exchange liquidity.

“Significant refining capacity is now also online; Dangote Industries Ltd.‘s large scale refinery and petrochemical complex has ramped up to near its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day,” the report stated.

S&P projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would improve to 5.8 per cent of GDP in 2026 from 4.8 per cent in 2025, supported partly by increased domestic refining and hydrocarbon exports.

The report noted that the refinery is helping to ensure the availability of refined fuel, gas, and fertiliser for the domestic market, while also providing a buffer against global supply disruptions triggered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The agency further stated that Nigeria’s improving external position has been supported by reduced fuel import dependence, the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate liberalisation, and higher oil production.

Foreign exchange reserves, according to S&P, have risen significantly from about $33 billion in 2023 to nearly $50 billion by early 2026, aided partly by lower import demand for refined petroleum products following the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery.