So far, candidates have emerged for the 2027 presidential election. Attaining that significant phase suggests the process is on course. But there are other challenges. Apart from the All Progressives Congress (APC), that is stabilised with incumbency powers, major opposition parties are infested with endless disputes and court matters.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), have reported parallel primaries and duplicate lists of candidates. Even the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is not spared. As for an end to the disputes, there are no clear signs. Yet, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has to work with a clear idea of which parties are in the ballot within a timeframe.

After 27 years of the Fourth Republic, parties are reluctant to organise free and fair primaries. Godfathers prefer to anoint candidates. Governors have lost their prime place as checks to domineering Federal Government. The entire system no longer looks like democracy. It is now tending towards a single sole administrator supported by a lame legislature. What’s more troubling is the effort by the electoral umpire to take sides, drawing up a stiff timetable, with a mindset to over-regulate the political space. The situation on ground makes 2027 uncertain.
Contentious primaries

The APC effortlessly elected president Tinubu as their flagbearer, with 10,999,162 votes. It wasn’t a surprise that the incumbent President summoned an overwhelming victory. But the party makes it a big deal, believing that those are numbers already in the bank for Mr. President, preparatory to the real election. The worry for some is that the numbers are not verifiable.

With the APC members boasting that the party alone could elect the President in 2027, having surpassed the 8.7 million he polled in 2023, the opposition suspects the numbers are outrageous and preparing ground to justify a future landslide declaration that might not be earned.

Here, it is the responsibility of INEC to make primaries transparent. After all, parties’ membership registers are now with the electoral body and the idea behind the register was to ensure internal party democracy and establishment of statutory eligibility for primaries.

Party primaries are not all-comers affair but what took place was a contest by governors to post exaggerated numbers for President Tinubu. The worry among the opposition is that the APC may be tempted to carry the same untamed zeal into the elections proper.

Then there was the drama of one Stanley Osifo, who was presented as a challenger to Mr. President. Many observers think that was a needless stunt and a clear case of throwing money away willfully, if indeed Osifo invested around N100 million to buy the Expression of Interest and Nomination forms.

Of course, it is the democratic right of the challenger to put himself forward. However, he should be investigated by the financial crimes agencies for tax compliance and the details of what he does for a living. In these hard times, a presidential contest should not be reduced to costly jokes.

In the ADC, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, won the primary. But not without the other contenders, Rotimi Amaechi and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, crying foul and alleging irregularities in the exercise. Considering logistics and costs, the leadership of ADC was reported to have proposed resolving the flagbearer challenge by consensus. Atiku Abubakar was reported to favour that option as well. But the other aspirants won the day and the party delivered the Direct Primary option.

After results from about 13 states had been tallied, Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen claimed the process was rigged. They took to the media to ventilate their grievances. But at the end of the day, ADC announced that Atiku had won by a huge margin. Reconciliations are ongoing in ADC to pacify both men.

Atiku must have embraced the spirit of reconciliation the hard way. In 2023, his inability to manage Nyesom Wike’s political emotions turned out to be very costly for the PDP and Atiku. That the PDP is now sickly and a caricature of its former ebullient self is traceable to the miscalculations and mismanagement of its 2023 presidential primary. The ADC must pick some lessons from that and reconcile well.

Despite the fractious opposition, the ADC appears set to regain balance after it lost members to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). With the emergence of Atiku on the ticket, the party might begin to chart a course across Nigeria’s divided political landscape.

Peter Obi is the sole candidate of NDC. Obi is reported to be shy of contested primaries, particularly ones that requires mobilisation of delegates and paying stipends for travels and accommodation. He calls it inducement. He left the ADC because his chances of emerging as flag bearer in that party were bleak. At the NDC, he got crowned effortlessly, because he arrived with huge presence and mass appeal. Not only that, Obi came with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, fellow former governor and crowd puller.

There are formidable presidential candidates who have been awarded tickets of other parties; they include Donald Duke (Peoples Redemption Party); Governor Seyi Makinde (Allied Peoples Movement); Adewole Adebayo (Social Democratic Party), Omoyele Sowore (African Action Congress). There is also former President Goodluck Jonathan, being pressured to join a faction of the disfigured PDP.

Window of opportunity
The lineup for 2027 is not cast in stone yet, as other parties are yet to finalise their details. Moreover, there are court cases that are ongoing. Depending on how they are treated, the lineup could see further adjustments.

Among ongoing electoral litigation, of particular concern is the case instituted by the Youth Party (YP) and the SDP, challenging the legality of INEC’s regulations and timetable. That judgment of Justice Umar of the Federal High Court, Abuja, and the order that INEC went beyond its powers on timelines for submission of candidates’ list and parties’ membership register could be the game changer for the election season.

The general impression is that some regulations of INEC were designed to favour the ruling party, and are contrary to what is provided in the Electoral Act 2026. Justice Umar saw sense in YPP’s complaint and ordered that INEC adjusts its timetable in line with the Act.

Now, what INEC does with the order is the crux of the matter. But before then, the response by political office seekers to the judgment has been swift, particularly for those who felt that they were schemed out in the APC primaries. They are trooping to other parties.

Former minister of Digital Economy and Communications, Isa Panatami, has grabbed the governorship ticket of the PDP, in Gombe State. Senator Ovie Omo-Agege of Delta Central has resigned from the APC. He got a waiver to fly NDC ticket for the Senate in 2027. The season for transfers has just begun if the window opens till September.

However, for INEC the order might disrupts arrangements and fixtures for 2027. A reordered timetable could affect the entire election year one way or the other. INEC is in a better position to know what implications are likely. Feelers are that the Commission has indicated interest to appeal the judgment. INEC is reported to be considering applying for a stay, pending the appeal.

The Movement for Credible Elections (MCE), a coalition of civil societies is worried that the integrity of 2027 elections might be jeopardised, given the manner INEC has appealed the judgment of Justice Umar, which nullified aspects the Commission’s timetable. MCE said it is equally concerned that INEC seeks a “stay” of the judgment pending the determination of the appeal.

In a statement signed by Dr. Usman Bugaje (chair), Dr. Obiageli Ezekwesili (co-chair), Dr. Hadjia Bilkisu Magoro (deputy chair) and Wale Okunniyi (Head of Secretariat), MCE counseled that INEC does not require early submission of candidates’ names since it uses party names and logos in its ballot papers. The Movement said: “there is therefore no operational basis for compelling political parties to conclude primaries in May or submit candidates’ lists months earlier than the law requires.”

MCE suggested that what INEC got for itself is an unnecessarily early timeline that imposes avoidable pressure on political parties. And that it also undermines internal democracy in parties, with increased risk of procedural errors that will later fuel litigation.

Equally troubling for MCE is the perception that INEC might be construed as descending into the arena, instead of staying neutral. “Public trust is the most valuable asset of any electoral umpire. When INEC becomes a litigant against political parties over a timetable issue, it risks being perceived as an interested party rather than a neutral regulator. Such perceptions- even if unintended- can weaken trust and confidence among political actors and voters ahead of the 2027 elections.”

Drawing from data on an already dangerously low public confidence in INEC, MCE illustrated with recent data by Afrobarometer’s survey of just 23 per cent of Nigerians expressing trust in INEC.

MCE said: “This is an electoral emergency. At a time when the country is already anxious about preparations for the 2027 elections, INEC should be taking every possible step to rebuild trust, not engaging in actions that risk pushing trust in the institution toward complete collapse. An appeal on a matter where the law is already clear sends the wrong signals to a public whose faith in the electoral process is already dangerously low.”

Not done, MCR further counseled that INEC’s mandate is to enforce the law, not to contest it. INEC is required to implement the law impartially. Appealing a judgment that merely affirms and clarifies the Electoral Act may be interpreted as the Commission taking sides.

This perception alone can damage the legitimacy of the electoral process, the Coalition stated.

The election year 2027 is looking dicey. There is induced instability in the system, with the intention to weaken popular participation. If there is no popular participation, it is no longer democracy. This is the time to cease the window of opportunity to intervene. And it is the responsibility of the judiciary to stabilise the polity and avert political logjam.