Nigeria and the rest of Africa are uniquely positioned to transform rising geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions into a long-term opportunity for trade expansion, industrialisation and economic resilience.

This is according to the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) 2026 edition of its flagship African Trade Report, titled: “Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa.”

The report provided a comprehensive assessment of Africa’s trade and economic performance against the backdrop of an increasingly fragmented global economy. It also outlines strategic policy actions needed to strengthen the continent’s resilience and drive sustainable growth.

According to the report, Africa continued to outperform global growth trends despite mounting external shocks. While global economic growth slowed to 3.4 per cent in 2025 and is projected to ease further to 3.1 per cent in 2026, Africa’s real GDP growth accelerated from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 4.5 per cent in 2025, underscoring the continent’s improving economic fundamentals.

Africa’s merchandise trade also recorded robust growth, expanding by 6.1 per cent to approximately $1.5 trillion in 2025. Meanwhile, aggregate inflation declined significantly from 21.6 per cent in 2024 to 13.1 per cent in 2025, reflecting stronger macroeconomic management, ongoing policy reforms and sustained interventions by development finance institutions.

Commenting on the findings, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, Dr Yemi Kale, said Africa must seize the opportunities emerging from shifting global trade dynamics.

“Africa stands at a critical juncture. Geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are reshaping global trade patterns, but they also present a historic opportunity for the continent. By strategically leveraging these shifts, Africa can build a more resilient, competitive and inclusive economic future.

“It is imperative for the continent to act decisively to strengthen regional value chains, deepen industrial capacity, expand access to trade finance, and accelerate continental integration. Through coordinated policy action, strategic infrastructure investment and stronger development finance institutions, Africa can build a more resilient, inclusive and value-added trade ecosystem.
Africa cannot afford to delay,” he said.

Despite the positive outlook, the report identifies a persistent trade finance gap estimated at $74 billion in 2025 as one of the biggest constraints to Africa’s export growth. Limited FX liquidity and the continued decline in correspondent banking relationships are also restricting the continent’s ability to fully unlock its trade potential.

It further notes that prolonged disruptions to global logistics networks and evolving shipping routes continue to increase freight costs and delivery times, placing additional pressure on African economies that remain heavily dependent on imported inputs and external markets.

To strengthen the continent’s competitiveness, the report calls for the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expansion of digital payment infrastructure through the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and reforms to the global financial architecture.