Nigeria has failed to record public spending equivalent to about two per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in recent official budgets, a gap that has left the country’s reported fiscal deficit understating its actual borrowing needs, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Resident Representative in Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, has said.

Speaking to business executives in Lagos, Ebeke said the omission stemmed largely from capital spending on major government projects executed outside the formal budget process, distorting assessments of the country’s fiscal position and the true scale of public investment.

“So far, we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” Ebeke said.

He explained that the shortfall in reporting meant Nigeria’s official deficit figures appeared smaller than the volume of borrowing undertaken by the government, since some capital expenditure never made it into budget documents or implementation reports.

Beyond the numbers, Ebeke warned that the lack of full disclosure complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers may be working without a clear picture of the country’s real deficit position.

He added that off-budget spending also raises questions about procurement processes and oversight, underscoring the need for greater transparency in public financial management.

According to Ebeke, the Nigerian government has begun addressing the problem by repealing and revising recent budget laws to capture previously unrecorded expenditure, although updated implementation reports are still awaited to confirm the extent of the correction.

The IMF official’s remarks came even as the Fund, in its most recent Article IV consultation on Nigeria, commended the country’s reform drive for strengthening macroeconomic stability and investor confidence. The Fund, however, cautioned that the gains had yet to filter down to millions of ordinary citizens and could be threatened by external shocks, including the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East.

The disclosure comes at a time of intense scrutiny of Nigeria’s fiscal accounts, following a turbulent budgeting cycle for 2026. President Bola Tinubu had in December 2025 presented a N58.18 trillion spending plan to the National Assembly, projecting a deficit of N23.85 trillion, about 4.28 per cent of GDP, just under the five per cent ceiling set by the country’s Fiscal Responsibility Act. Lawmakers subsequently expanded the budget further, approving a revised N68.32 trillion package in March, alongside a fresh borrowing plan of N29.2 trillion to bridge the widened funding gap.

The Senate has also sanctioned an additional $6 billion in external loans, comprising $5 billion from Abu Dhabi’s First Abu Dhabi Bank for budget support and debt servicing, and $1 billion from Citi Bank and UK Export Finance for the rehabilitation of Lagos ports.

Nigeria’s total public debt stock stood at $103.94 billion (N153.29 trillion) as at September 2025, according to the Debt Management Office.