For the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State, covert political realignments, planned vote-buying and politically motivated violence may go a long way in deciding the outcome of the poll. TIMOTHY AGBOR writes.

Some prominent political leaders in Osun State are silently aligning with opposing forces ahead of the forthcoming governorship election in the state. These alignments involve strategic defections and quiet negotiations that are already shifting political calculations and redefining the contest for the Oke-Fia Government House.

In line with the electoral history of the state, the August 15 election will be mainly dominated by two major political parties — the ruling Accord Party and the major opposition, All Progressives Congress (APC).

Many politicians who are eyeing the governorship seat for the 2030 poll have been engaging in covert political realignments, notwithstanding their different political platforms. These succession intrigues playing out are already causing cracks within the major opposition party.

Some governorship aspirants who have been denied tickets are redirecting their strength towards ensuring that they are well positioned after the election.

At the centre of this unfolding political calculation is the Governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking re-election using the Accord Party platform. Though the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) brought him to power, the governor left the crisis-ridden party to save himself from any possible political landmine against his re-election bid. The entire PDP structure has collapsed into Accord Party to retain power.

Riding behind Adeleke in political popularity is the candidate of the APC, Bola Oyebamiji, better known as AMBO. The candidates of the other 12 political parties certified by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to contest the poll include Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC); Farinloye Olarenwaju of the Action Alliance (AC); Esan Olajide of the African Action Congress (AAC); Adeagbo Opawoye of the African Democratic Party (ADP); Adesina Adeyemi-Doro of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Adewale Adebayo of the Allied People Movement (APM).

Others are Clement Adesuyi of the Action Peoples Party (APP); Masilo Adeleke of the Boot Party (BP); Taofeek Adeleke of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); Saliu Oyelami of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP); Ogunsakin Olalekan of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP)’s Adefemi Adesuyi.

About two years after his victory, Adeleke had lost some prominent chieftains in the then PDP to the opposition. Some of them include Dotun Babayemi and a member of the Board of Trustees of the party, Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, who have teamed up with the APC to unseat him.

However, weeks to the forthcoming election, pockets of realignments are taking place. Analysts say the wave of defections to Accord Party lately, mostly from the camp of former Senator Iyiola Omisore, a prominent figure in Osun APC, is unsettling Oyebamiji, who is being supported by Adeleke’s predecessor and Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola.

Few days ago, two former commissioners – Folorunsho Bamisayemi and Yemi Lawal – and some aides to Oyetola, dumped APC for the ruling Accord Party. Both Bamisayemi and Lawal are strong loyalists of Omisore. Some other influential politicians have also left the APC and pitched tents with Adeleke.

The politicians were formally received into Accord at the flag-off of the re-election campaign of Governor Adeleke in Osogbo.

The defectors noted that Adeleke has an unbroken history of defeating the APC in the state, saying that the next poll wouldn’t be an exception.

Speaking on their behalf, former Commissioner for Education during the Oyetola administration, Bamisayemi, said they left APC out of frustration over past electoral losses, explaining that the refusal of APC leaders to consider Omisore as a candidate also fueled their defection.

“When Adeleke was alone without our support, he beat our party, APC, three times. In 2017, he won nine LGAs out of 10; in 2018, he won us with 353 votes before we sorted it; in 2022 he crashed us on the floor that we could not even stand up with 28,000 votes.

“We the supporters of Omisore decided to join Adeleke for his re-election. It is only in the Bible that David defeated Goliath, it never happened in reality. We told them but they refused to listen that Adeleke is a giant that David can’t defeat. We told them that they should present Omisore as candidate of the party but they didn’t listen; he was disqualified.

“Adeleke will win the election. We will work for his re-election; Adeleke has done well throughout the state – Osogbo, Ila, Iwo, Ile-Ife, Ilesa and others – and deserves a second term.

“The APC is scared of Adeleke because he defeated them three times. They are now looking for a subtle way to disqualify him from participating in the election; they envisaged that he will win for the fourth time. They are now resorting to use court order against him,” the former APC stalwart said.

Even though Omisore has not formally joined Accord Party, his body language and the defection of all his supporters to Accord have been described by political observers as a covert gang-up against the candidate of his party (APC) owing to the manner he was edged out of the race for the party’s 2026 governorship ticket.

Although there were reports in some quarters that Omisore had defected to Accord, the former deputy governor was yet to react to the reports as of the time of filing this story.

Analysts also envisage that succession plots by some politicians in the APC may work in the favour of Adeleke aside from his popularity and achievements in office.

“I can confirm to you that some other leading governorship aspirants in the Osun APC are already working towards being favoured as candidate for the 2030 gubernatorial contest in the state. They know that if they can play their game well this time around by supporting Adeleke to win a second term, it will pave way for them to be favoured in 2030. For some of these politicians whom I wouldn’t want to mention, their thinking is that should APC candidate, Oyebamiji emerge victorious on August 15, this year, it may take another eight years for them to smell the governorship ticket. So, secretly supporting Adeleke and working against their party is the surest way for them to actualise their dream,” a prominent figure in APC who did not want to be named told The Guardian.

Meanwhile, stakeholders are divided over whom President Bola Tinubu is supporting between Oyebamiji and Adeleke ahead of the poll.

Adeleke, who tried but failed to gain entry into APC, had already endorsed Tinubu for second term and has not hidden his support for the President. While speculation is rife that President Tinubu favours the governor against the candidate of his party, the leadership of Osun APC has debunked the insinuation, noting that Oyebamiji enjoys the full backing of Tinubu and the entire presidential structure.

The five APC lawmakers representing the state in the National Assembly had also dismissed insinuations that President Tinubu had assured Adeleke of support in the August 15 poll. The lawmakers, under the aegis of G-5, stated that Tinubu did not at any time assure Adeleke of support, urging members of the public to disregard the insinuation.

Observers say Oyebamiji has advantage over Adeleke in terms of party’s strength at the national level. According to them, the number of governors that would be supporting and campaigning with the APC flag bearer would be intimidating.

“There is no governor that is obviously supporting Governor Adeleke in this poll as we speak. Even Governor Seyi Makinde won’t be supporting him. That is why I am of the opinion that the APC candidate has an edge over Adeleke because he enjoys the support of the Presidency and about 30 governors across the country. Their involvement will really go a long way in deciding the outcome of the election,” a political scientist said.

Analysts also noted that the judicial imbroglio over whether INEC would deregister Accord Party or not remains a big challenge for Adeleke’s camp. Even though the Appeal Court has ordered a stay of execution on the deregistration judgment, there is still concerns over the eventual final verdict on the suit.

But Adeleke’s camp is confident that Accord Party will be on ballot.

“All lawful means are being deployed to sustain and retain our rights to vote and be voted for. We will not bow to dark forces; we remain courageous and we shall again be victorious by the special grace of God. I charge you to hold your head high. There should be no dull moment. From this assembly for democracy, the light of good governance must continue to spread to all corners of Osun State.

“Go out to all voting units, mobilise for the Accord. Our party remains a duly registered political party in this country. Rule of law must prevail. Democracy must survive,” Adeleke had charged party members during the flag-off of his re-election campaign recently.

Also assuring supporters after the appellate court’s ruling,  spokesperson of Adeleke’s Imole Campaign Council, Pelumi Olajengbesi, said: “God has finally destroyed all the plans of the Osun APC. Now that a superior court has expressly stopped the judicial rascality that was about to happen, the opposition has been left without its most cherished political calculation.”

However, Oyebamiji is confident of victory. For him, he has no competitor.

Addressing some APC youths recently in Osogbo, Oyebamiji, a former Commissioner for Finance in the state, declared that neither he nor his party has any real challenge ahead of the election, describing the contest as a “penalty kick” already awarded in APC’s favour.

According to him, a demographic analysis of the 2022 governorship election showed that youths accounted for about 210,000 of the over 300,000 votes recorded by the APC, underscoring their central role in determining electoral outcomes.

The APC candidate likened the forthcoming poll to a penalty kick taken against a team without a goalkeeper, dismissing the Adeleke’s chances.

“In the coming election, God has given us a penalty, and they have a goalpost without a goalkeeper. All we need to do is to work and coordinate ourselves properly to earn the victory waiting for us,” he said.

Meanwhile, stakeholders are apprehensive over recent pockets of politically motivated killings and attacks ahead of the poll. Analysts stated that some political gladiators might want to outsmart one another with violence-induced voter apathy – a situation that Osun voters would be very afraid of coming out on election day to exercise their franchise.

For some weeks now, tension has escalated across several parts of the state, particularly Osogbo, Ede and Ile-Ife, where attacks linked to suspected political thugs have heightened anxiety among residents.

The incidents have left casualties, injuries and growing fears that the election season may degenerate into a wider security challenge if urgent preventive measures are not taken.

There has been exchange of blames between Accord Party and the APC over the violence with Adeleke demanding for the removal of the Commissioner of Police, Ibrahim Gotan, while the APC and other groups rejected the call.

Stakeholders have called on politicians to give way for peace and allow voters to exercise their democratic rights. With about six weeks to the governorship election, tension is rising even as horse-trading among top politicians intensify.