As the All Progressives Congress (APC) uploads its candidates to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Candidate Nomination Portal (ICNP), Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa appears to have lost some grip on politics, with an attendant shift in Ondo power politics, ADEWALE MOMOH reports.

For Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, the battle over the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Assembly tickets was never just about deciding who would represent Ondo State in the Senate and the House of Representatives. It was the latest chapter in a political journey defined by survival, succession and the struggle to consolidate authority.

Having weathered an impeachment plot as deputy governor, endured the uncertainty surrounding the prolonged illness of his late principal, Rotimi Akeredolu, and eventually succeeded him amid stiff opposition from entrenched political interests, Aiyedatiwa appeared determined to leave little to chance.

His strategy was to tighten his grip on the party structure by replacing many incumbent federal lawmakers with loyalists who would owe their political future to him.

Instead, the governor suffered perhaps the biggest political setback of his administration after the APC NWC overturned most of his preferred candidates and affirmed a list that largely reflected the influence of powerful stakeholders in Abuja.

Beyond exposing the limits of the governor’s authority within the APC, the development has reiterated concerns about the state’s readiness to ditch succession politics for governance.

For weeks, the Alagbaka Government House in Akure hummed with quiet confidence as Aiyedatiwa mapped out what many of his supporters believed would be the final phase of consolidating his authority within the state chapter of the APC.

The governor’s objective was straightforward: replace most incumbent National Assembly members with loyalists who would strengthen his political machinery ahead of the 2027 general elections while reinforcing his dominance within the party.

His calculation was understandable from a political standpoint. Governors traditionally seek to build loyal political structures capable of protecting their interests beyond their tenure. For Aiyedatiwa, who inherited a divided party and has continued to contend with competing power blocs, controlling the National Assembly caucus was viewed as a strategic necessity.

During Akeredolu’s prolonged illness, disagreements over the transfer of executive authority polarised the state’s political establishment. Aiyedatiwa, then deputy governor, found himself at the centre of an intense power struggle as some forces within the government allegedly sought to diminish his constitutional role. The development nearly paralysed governance in Ondo for several months, especially when the seat of government was effectively being run from Oyo State, where Akeredolu was recuperating.

Although constitutional provisions eventually paved the way for Aiyedatiwa to assume office following Akeredolu’s death, the new governor inherited a politically fractured APC rather than a united government.

His subsequent victory in the governorship election was expected to bring closure to those divisions. Instead, succession politics merely entered another phase, with fresh contests over appointments, party structures and control of future elections, a development that seriously affected governance and set the state back.

Against that backdrop, the National Assembly primaries became far more significant than ordinary party contests.

In January 2026, Aiyedatiwa publicly declared that APC candidates in the state would emerge through consensus. By April, his preferred aspirants had become public knowledge.

For the Senate, he backed Isaac Kekemeke for Ondo South, Dr Taiwo Fasoranti for Ondo Central, and Gbenga Elegbeleye for Ondo North, choices that ran counter to the preferences of many people in those respective zones.

For the House of Representatives, he endorsed nine candidates, with only two incumbents, Ife Ehindero and Abiola Makinde, retaining his support. The remaining aspirants were largely regarded as loyalists expected to strengthen the governor’s political influence.

This was also viewed as an insult by many people, who felt that a single individual could not impose his choice on them. However, there was little they could do due to the lack of strong, credible opposition.

Many party members interpreted the arrangement as an attempt to reshape the Sunshine State’s politics around the governor’s political camp before the next electoral cycle.

Beyond the fact that APC members protested, the majority of citizens who had shown interest in how they were governed also raised the alarm, warning that they would seek alternatives if the governor had his way.

Several elders and influential stakeholders reportedly warned that excluding serving lawmakers and other leaders from consultations could trigger a backlash that could destabilise the party before the 2027 elections.

Their concerns would later prove prophetic. By the time the dust settled on June 29, 2026, the governor’s carefully constructed political calculations had unravelled.

In a letter addressed to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, and National Secretary, Senator Surajudeen Ajibola Basiru, forwarded what the party described as its “final position” on the disputed constituencies following the conclusion of appeals. The review substantially altered the governor’s preferred list.

For the Senate, Senator Adeniyi Adegbonmire (SAN) replaced Taiwo Fasoranti as the APC candidate for Ondo Central, while Senator Olajide Ipinsagba emerged in place of Gbenga Elegbeleye for Ondo North. Only Isaac Kekemeke retained his position in Ondo South.

The House of Representatives list witnessed even more sweeping changes. Timehin Adelegbe replaced Kayode Adejana for Owo/Ose Federal Constituency, while Okunjimi Odimayo displaced Olumuyiwa Daramola in Okitipupa/Irele.

Donald Ojogo replaced Leke Akingboye in Ilaje/Ese Odo, Festus Akingbaso displaced Rasaq Obe in Idanre/Ifedore, Michael Akintomide emerged ahead of Abiola Makinde in Ondo East/Ondo West, while Festus Adefiranye replaced Oyerinmade Matthew in Ile-Oluji/Okeigbo/Odigbo.

The extent of the reversals represented an unprecedented political embarrassment for a sitting governor who had expected his authority over the state party to be decisive.

All lingering doubts disappeared on July 12 when the APC National Chairman confirmed that all the party’s candidates had been successfully uploaded to the INEC Candidate Nomination Portal.

The announcement effectively closed the chapter on further substitutions and confirmed that the National Working Committee had overwhelmingly sided with those who challenged the governor’s preferred list.

An APC chieftain, Emmanuel Fadola, described the conduct of the primaries as “authoritarian”, alleging that the governor attempted to impose candidates on party members instead of allowing a genuinely inclusive process.

While appealing to aggrieved members to accept the National Working Committee’s decision in the interest of party unity, Fadola maintained that the national leadership’s intervention became inevitable because of the manner in which the primaries were conducted.

According to him, despite widespread complaints over irregularities, some aspirants were initially declared winners, a development he said undermined the democratic ideals upon which the APC was founded.

One of those affected by the review, Rasaq Obe, who lost the Idanre/Ifedore Federal Constituency ticket to Festus Akingbaso, appealed to President Bola Tinubu to intervene, warning that allowing the revised list to stand could hurt the party’s image and weaken confidence in its internal democratic process.

Political analyst and lecturer at Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Dr Kayode Akinlotan, said what happened in Ondo extends beyond ordinary primary election disputes.

According to him, the governor made the mistake of treating the exercise as a purely state affair.

“What happened in Ondo is not an isolated incident,” he said. “The governor forgot that the party’s national leadership retains the final authority on nominations. He alienated stakeholders who ordinarily could have defended his position.

“It is a classic case of political miscalculation. He assumed that control of the state government automatically meant control of the party structure. But the incumbents and their supporters understood the federal dynamics much better. They mobilised their contacts in Abuja and eventually prevailed.

“You cannot run a state chapter of a national political party as though it belongs to one individual. Coalition-building and consultation remain indispensable.”

Beyond the internal politics of the APC, however, many observers believe the biggest concern should be what the prolonged political battles mean for governance in Ondo State.

For nearly three years, the state’s political discourse has revolved around succession struggles, impeachment attempts, governorship contests, party supremacy and now legislative nominations.

One of the ward leaders in Owo, Festus Ademola, said Ondo State appears to have moved from one political battle to another without enjoying a prolonged period of stability.

According to him: “When Akeredolu became ill, politics dominated governance. After his death, succession dominated governance. Following the governorship election, party supremacy replaced succession. Now, we are discussing National Assembly tickets instead of economic development.”

That perception, analysts say, poses perhaps the greatest challenge before the governor.

While political consolidation is often necessary for any administration, there is growing concern that an excessive preoccupation with internal party contests could distract attention from delivering the dividends of democracy expected by the people.

The latest developments have also revived discussions about the future leadership of Ondo State beyond 2027.

But several party leaders linked the outcome and the growing debacle in Ondo to the influence wielded by the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo.

While Governor Aiyedatiwa projected himself as the undisputed leader of the APC in Ondo State, Tunji-Ojo quietly expanded his political network across the state and strengthened relationships with federal lawmakers, party elders and influential stakeholders in Abuja.

The final list of candidates has been widely interpreted as evidence that the minister’s political tendency emerged stronger from the contest.

Legal practitioner Wale Obanigba argued that the widespread substitutions exposed deeper divisions within the Ondo APC and challenged the long-held assumption that the governor exercised overwhelming control over the party.

According to him, Tunji-Ojo became the rallying point for many leaders who were uncomfortable with what they perceived as the governor’s leadership style.

He added that the minister’s ability to build alliances across different political interests transformed the so-called Abuja bloc into a formidable force capable of confronting the governor’s camp.

Similarly, the Forum of Former Members of the Ondo State House of Assembly commended the Minister of Interior for what it described as his contributions to strengthening the party.

The forum attributed the outcome to Tunji-Ojo’s leadership, performance in public office and commitment to the growth and unity of the APC in the state.

Sources within the party also disclosed that, beyond the National Assembly nominations, the Abuja tendency equally secured five positions on the list of candidates for the Ondo State House of Assembly, further underscoring the scale of the governor’s political setback.

Yet, despite the bruising contest, both camps may ultimately have little choice but to work together.

But as the APC continues to battle internal crises, people on the streets of Ondo lamented that the fragile state of opposition parties in the state is part of what is giving the ruling party the leeway to behave as though nothing is at stake.

A farmer in the Akoko area, Femi Omojolowo, lamented that what is happening in Ondo at present reflects the danger inherent in a one-party state, which Nigerians must resist.

He said for nearly three years, governance in Ondo State has been repeatedly overshadowed by political survival and succession battles.

“From the constitutional crisis triggered by the late Akeredolu’s prolonged illness to the contest over Governor Aiyedatiwa’s emergence and now the fierce struggle for control of National Assembly tickets, government attention has remained fixed on internal power contests.

“This prolonged political uncertainty has slowed policy implementation, weakened public confidence and diverted attention from pressing issues such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, job creation and security. As political actors continue to battle for supremacy, many residents fear governance has become the biggest casualty,” he said.