One of the oldest African adages — widely shared among Nigerian tribes—holds that the best way to stop a war is not to start one. Sun Tzu articulated a similar doctrine in The Art of War: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” In 1783, Benjamin Franklin famously wrote, “There never was a good war, or a bad peace.”

Echoing these sentiments in a 1934 Armistice Day sermon, Rev. Charles C. Cole warned: “The best way to stop a war is not to start one, and the time to stop the next war is now.”

Despite centuries of strategic wisdom, United States policymakers committed a profound error by launching a conflict with Iran without clear, realistic objectives.

From an analytical perspective, Washington could have secured its core interests without firing a single shot by seizing the diplomatic deal offered through Oman before the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Instead, the killing of Khamenei and other moderate Iranian figures produced the predictable result. It rallied the Iranian populace around the flag, and hardliners replaced leadership.

Flawed Assumptions and Divergent Objectives: Many American critics rightly question why the U.S. is fighting on behalf of the Israeli government against a country that did not pose an imminent threat to the American homeland. This raises a troubling question: why should a superpower of 350 million people allow its policy to be dictated by a nation of 11 million while ignoring its own intelligence agencies?

U.S. intelligence previously confirmed that Iran did not possess a nuclear weapon and was not actively seeking one. This was one of the major reasons behind the resignation of Joe Kent, former Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Centre, on March 17, 2026.

Furthermore, this intelligence aligned with Iran’s own religious doctrine. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s established decree (fatwa) explicitly declares the production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons forbidden (haram) under Islam — a position officially cited at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the bedrock of Iran’s peaceful nuclear posture.

Instead of diplomatic engagement, U.S. strategy under President Donald Trump shifted drastically. The JCPOA Baseline: Under President Barack Obama, the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and European allies established the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to verify Iran’s non-proliferation. President Trump subsequently withdrew from the JCPOA, calling it a “bad deal,” and instituted a policy of “Maximum Pressure.”

Expando-War Goals: The campaign expanded to mirror Israeli priorities, forced regime change, restricting Iranian ballistic missiles to a 300-mile range, and ending support for regional proxies — all intended to be achieved within four to six weeks of the war’s outset on February 28, 2026. Six months into the conflict, none of these objectives have been met. It only creates new global challenges from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait that war opened before the war.

The Reality on the Ground: Logistics and Geography. In July 2026, Israeli Defence Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, publicly stated that Israel had “no interest in joining the campaign,” calling a direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran the “correct and best” scenario for Israel.

Smotrich recognises what Washington seems blind to: this is a structural forever war. Reports indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington to urge a ground invasion. Yet invading Iran is strategically untenable.

Geographic and Climatic Traps: Ground forces operating on Kharg Island will face oppressive conditions, with daytime temperatures exceeding 107°F (42°C) and extreme humidity. Deploying troops into Iran’s vast, mountainous terrain is tantamount to sending soldiers to a firing squad. In addition to Modern Asymmetric Lethality, large military concentrations in the Persian Gulf are sitting ducks for low-cost drones and precision-guided ballistic missiles.

It is important to emphasise the point of maritime vulnerability – escorting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the modern technological era is a dangerous, near-impossible mission. During Operation Earnest Will (1987–1988), the U.S. successfully protected reflagged tankers thanks to robust support from European allies (the UK, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium). Today, alienated by unilateral actions, Gaza policy, and high tariffs of the President Trump administration, those allies have distanced themselves entirely.

Global Escalation and the Path Forward: The war has effectively killed the 14-point peace memorandum, throwing the global economy into peril by blocking 21 percent of global oil transit through Hormuz.

The chaos is spreading fast. We now also have the Red Sea Crisis. The Yemeni Houthis closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and struck major Saudi oil refineries after Saudi Arabia inexplicably launched strikes on Sana’a airport — a strategically illogical move against an opponent with little infrastructure to lose.

Horizontal Escalation: Ukraine has further tried to broaden the conflict by attacking Iranian shipping in the Caspian Sea. The regional situation is spiralling toward total environmental and economic devastation. If tit-for-tat targeting of vital infrastructure, such as regional water desalination plants, continues, the Middle East will become unliveable.

The United States holds both the shovel and the ladder. We can use the shovel to dig deeper into an unwinnable conflict, triggering a prolonged global depression. Or we can use the ladder to climb out; walk away, negotiate a deal, and preserve global economic stability while safeguarding American, Iranian, and civilian lives. There is no military solution to the U.S.–Iran war. The only real solution is to stop it. As Benjamin Franklin famously wrote in 1783, “There never was a good war, or a bad peace.

Abiodun Ramon Oseni is a Fellow at the Institute of Security Nigeria, a former U.S. police officer, and a U.S. Army veteran. He specialises in international security studies at Harvard University and American Military University.