The Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade and Investment (BACITI) of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) has urged Nigeria to move beyond celebrating foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and instead prioritise investments that expand domestic production, strengthen local firms and position the country more competitively within African and global value chains.

‎The centre in it’s just released July 2026 edition of BACITI Economic Insight, titled Global FDI Rebounds, But Africa Is Losing Share: Implications of the World Investment Report 2026 for Nigeria, said the country’s policy objective should not be attracting FDI at any cost, but securing investments that deepen productive capacity, create jobs and improve competitiveness.

‎BACITI also cautioned that while Nigeria’s recent rebound in foreign investment reflects renewed investor confidence, the country must now focus on converting those inflows into long-term economic transformation.
‎It noted that success should be measured by productive capacity, non-oil exports, electricity supplied to industry, skilled employment, technology transfer, local supplier development and reinvestment by existing investors rather than by the volume of capital inflows alone.

‎According to the report, which examined the implications of the latest UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) investment data for Nigeria and Africa, global FDI rose six per cent in 2025 to $1.624 trillion after two consecutive years of decline. However, the recovery was uneven as developed economies recorded stronger gains, while Africa’s inflows fell 26 per cent from $94 billion in 2024 to $70 billion in 2025, leaving the continent with only about 4.3 per cent of global FDI.

‎Despite the continental decline, Nigeria emerged as one of Africa’s strongest performers. UNCTAD estimated that the country’s inward FDI increased by 148.2 per cent, rising from $1.614 billion in 2024 to $4.005 billion in 2025.
‎The report, however, noted that the recovery was driven largely by investments in oil, gas, refining and mining, including major corporate acquisitions such as Renaissance Africa Energy’s purchase of Shell’s onshore assets and Huaxin Cement’s acquisition of Lafarge Africa.

‎BACITI argued that while these transactions are economically significant, they do not necessarily translate into broad-based industrial growth because acquisitions mainly transfer ownership of existing assets rather than create new productive capacity.

‎ It stressed that Nigeria’s central policy challenge is no longer simply attracting more FDI but improving its quality, sectoral composition and linkages with the domestic economy.

‎The report further stated that Nigeria should leverage energy investments to develop wider industrial value chains, including gas-to-power, petrochemicals, fertiliser production, engineering, fabrication and export-oriented manufacturing. It also recommended shifting from broad investment promotion to a targeted strategy centred on investment-ready projects, while improving electricity supply, logistics, customs processes and the overall business environment to enhance competitiveness.

‎ BACITI added that Nigeria’s large domestic market remains an important attraction for investors but warned that this advantage would not compensate indefinitely for unreliable electricity, logistics bottlenecks, regulatory uncertainty and insecurity.

‎ It said the country should also take advantage of the African Continental Free Trade Area by strengthening regional value chains and promoting strategic sectors such as agro-processing, renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, digital infrastructure and critical mineral processing.
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‎It added that Nigeria faces a strategic choice between remaining primarily a market for resource extraction or becoming an integrated African production, logistics, energy and services hub, stressing that achieving the latter would require reliable power, efficient trade infrastructure, predictable regulations and sustained investment in sectors capable of driving exports and productivity growth.