Nigeria and a number of African economies are showing remarkable resilience despite heightened geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, but mounting global uncertainties, tightening financial conditions and climate-related shocks continue to threaten the continent’s growth prospects.

This is according to the latest ‘Monthly Development in the African Macroeconomic Environment’ released by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).

The July 2026 report noted that while African countries have weathered recent global shocks better than many analysts expected, the continent remains vulnerable to external developments, particularly evolving trade policies, commodity price volatility and disruptions to global supply chains.

According to the report, easing inflation across several African economies has created room for central banks to gradually relax monetary policy, potentially supporting investment and domestic demand. However, elevated public debt levels, weak fiscal space and high borrowing costs continue to constrain governments’ ability to stimulate economic activity.

The African Trade Report, ‘Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa’ presents a comprehensive review of trade and economic developments across Africa and globally in the context of the 2025 operating environment, while outlining available strategic options for Africa to transform ongoing geopolitical tensions and associated supply chain disruptions into long-term resilience for growth and shared prosperity across the continent.

Reflecting the continent’s growth resilience, the report shows that while global economic growth slowed to 3.4 per cent in 2025 and is projected to further ease to 3.1 per cent in 2026, Africa’s real GDP growth strengthened from 3.4 per cent in 2024 to 4.5 per cent in 2025.

This performance not only surpasses the global average but also highlights the continent’s improving economic fundamentals in a fractured world economic order.

Africa’s merchandise trade also delivered a strong performance, expanding by 6.1 per cent to reach approximately $1.5 trillion, while aggregate inflation declined sharply from 21.6 per cent in 2024 to 13.1 per cent in 2025.

These outcomes reflect the stabilising effects of prudent macroeconomic management, ongoing policy and institutional reforms, and the countercyclical interventions of development finance institutions across the continent.

Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, Yemi Kale, said: “Africa stands at a critical juncture. Geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are reshaping global trade patterns, but they also present a historic opportunity for the continent. By strategically leveraging these shifts, Africa can build a more resilient, competitive, and inclusive economic future.

The report further highlights that Africa’s export performance remains constrained by a persistent trade finance gap, estimated at approximately $74 billion in 2025. The challenge is exacerbated by limited FX liquidity and the continued decline in correspondent banking relationships, factors that restrict the continent’s capacity to fully realise its trade and industrial potential.

At the same time, evolving shipping routes and prolonged disruptions to global logistics networks continue to extend delivery timelines and increase freight and trading costs.

These pressures are particularly acute for African economies that remain heavily reliant on imported inputs and external markets, even as global supply chains increasingly reconfigure toward resilience, diversification, and the emergence of alternative production hubs.

The report also outlines several strategic priorities, including the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expansion of digital payments infrastructure through the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) and coordinated reforms to the global financial architecture.