By Samukeliso Dube

A statistics has stayed with me: The World Bank’s Human Capital Index estimates that, under current conditions, a child born in Sub-Saharan Africa today can expect to achieve only about 40 per cent of his or her potential productivity by adulthood, compared with the benchmark of complete education and full health. 40 per cent.

That is not a reflection of the potential of African people. It is a reflection of the conditions we create, or fail to create for people to realise that potential. So the question is: what would it take to unlock the other 60 per cent? For me, part of the answer begins with a question we too often leave out of the human capital conversation: Can people determine if, when and how many children they want to have?

That is why the Nigeria FP2030 High-Level Inter-Ministerial Platform on Family Planning, Health, Human Capital and National Development matters.

I was unable to attend in person, but I was proud to have the FP2030 team representing our partnership alongside the Government of Nigeria and partners. What happened in that room was about much more than bringing ministers together. It was about changing the frame. When we talk about human capital, we rightly talk about health, education, skills, jobs, productivity, women’s economic participation and social protection. But the ability to plan one’s family is also part of that equation.

A young woman who can plan the timing of her pregnancies has greater opportunity to remain in school.

Parents who can determine the size and spacing of their families have greater opportunity to invest in the health and education of their children. Couples who can make informed reproductive choices can make different decisions about work, livelihoods and their futures.

And governments that understand population dynamics and reproductive intentions are better positioned to plan investments in schools, health systems, jobs, housing and infrastructure.

Family planning is therefore not simply a health intervention. It is human capital policy. And if it is human capital policy, it cannot belong to the Ministry of Health alone. This was one of the most important messages from Nigeria. Nigeria Agenda 2050 is the country’s long-term development blueprint.

Its ambition is to transform Nigeria into an upper-middle-income economy and subsequently a high-income country, driven by sustained economic growth, higher productivity, job creation and poverty reduction.

The current Renewed Hope Plan 2026–2030 is being developed as the medium-term bridge to Agenda 2050. The government describes it as a framework to accelerate job creation, human capital development, infrastructure, food security and social protection.

Finance and Planning need to be at the table, Education, Youth, Women and Gender, Labour, Social Protection and Economic Development. The coordinating Minister of Health, Professor Muhammed Ali Pate led the call with a resolve to ensure that at the heart of Nigeria’s sovereignty is investing in human capital. Demographic dividend is not created by population growth alone but through strategic investments that ensure the population is healthy, educated, skilled, empowered and economically productive.

As Prof. Pate reminded participants, “Nigeria’s estimated population of approximately 230 million, predominantly youthful demographic and rapid population growth mean the country could reach 450–500 million people by 2050”….this presents an enormous challenge but it is also an extraordinary opportunity. Nigeria’s greatest asset is its people. The question is whether we will invest sufficiently in enabling them to realise their potential”.

In an era when reproductive autonomy is facing renewed pressure in parts of the world, it is particularly encouraging to see a government bringing ministries together around a fundamentally people-centred proposition: invest in people so that they can become the fullest versions of themselves and contribute to the future of their country.

This is also where I see the distinctive role of FP2030. We are not there to prescribe solutions to countries. We are there to be a catalyst, bringing the right people into the room, connecting evidence with decision-making, connecting sectors that too often work in silos, and amplifying country leadership and helping partners work collectively. Most importantly, we accelerate the journey from commitment to action. The Nigeria platform is a powerful example of that catalytic role in practice.

I am grateful to the Government of Nigeria for its leadership and vision, and to the ministers, government officials, development partners, civil society, young people and advocates who contributed to this important dialogue. I am equally proud of the FP2030 team for helping to advance this conversation.

And I hope Nigeria’s example prompts other governments to ask:
Are all the right ministries at the table?
Are we treating family planning as part of our human capital strategy?
Are we investing today in the people who will define our economic and social future tomorrow?

Because population size alone does not create prosperity. People do. And the future of family planning will not be built by one ministry, one organisation or one sector. It will be built through collective leadership, country ownership and sustained investment in people.

If we are serious about unlocking Africa’s extraordinary human potential, we cannot afford to leave any part of the equation out. The question is not whether Africa has the potential; we know it does. The question is whether we will create the conditions for that potential to be realised.

Nigeria is showing us one way forward, and we should pay attention.

Dr Dube, Executive Director FP2030 wrote from Abuja.