The Photograph That Fooled Abuja
The picture went viral within hours. Governor Ademola Adeleke, fresh from collecting his Certificate of Return in Osogbo, standing side-by-side with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Abuja, both men smiling. Adeleke’s signature dance-step energy was on pause. Tinubu’s grin was wide. Within 12 hours, APC WhatsApp groups in Abuja and Osogbo were celebrating. “Osun is back in the bag.” “The Southwest is now 100% APC.” “Adeleke has surrendered.” That photograph may go down as one of the most dangerous assumptions in Nigerian politics since 2015.

And here is why: reading that handshake as “Osun people have joined APC” is to mistake courtesy for conversion. To read it as “Southwest is secured for 2027” is to mistake survival tactics for surrender.

This column argues one thing: It is dangerous for President Tinubu, APC leaders in Osun and Abuja to assume that Governor Adeleke’s public gesture equals automatic support of Osun people, and by extension, the entire Southwest. The reasons are still far-reaching. And the dangers are already lurking in Oyo, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ogun, Ekiti and even Kwara and Kogi states.

What really happened in Osun State last Saturday, August 15, 2026…
Let’s be clear on the facts. On Saturday, Osun people voted against hardship. They voted against hunger. They voted against a party that they felt had abandoned them to food inflation, fuel costs, and a federal government that speaks in statistics while they speak in empty pots.

They voted to retain Ademola Adeleke and the PDP through King Rashidi Ladoja’s Accord Party.

Adeleke’s victory was not a fluke. It was a referendum. And the margin was wide enough to make election petition difficult, but not impossible. So, Adeleke was in Abuja. He collected his certificate. He posed for photographs with the President. He said the right things: “Mr President is my leader. I respect the office.”This is Nigerian politics 101. Rule 1: You do not fight Abuja when your mandate is still in court. You court Abuja. Rule 2: You protect your state’s federal allocations, projects, and appointments by staying close to power. Rule 3: You give the President his photo-op so that when INEC or the courts look at the file, they see “no crisis.” That photograph was deft. It was smart. It was self-preservation.

It was not a defection. It was not an endorsement of APC by 3.4 million Osun people.

Note this symbolism: “In Nigeria, a handshake with the President is insurance, not ideology.” To assume otherwise is the first danger.

The danger of assumption#1 – “Adeleke = Osun = SouthWest”
This is the biggest fallacy circulating in APC circles in Abuja right now.

The logic goes: Adeleke is PDP/ACCORD. Adeleke met Tinubu. Therefore ACCORD in Osun is weak.

Therefore, Southwest is APC. Politics does not work like mathematics. Fact 1: Adeleke won because he connected with Osun’s pain. Market women in Ede, farmers in Ile-Ife, artisans in Ilesha did not vote for Adeleke because of Abuja. They voted because of rice prices and transport fares. Because of school fees. Because of ‘Band A’ killer tariff. Because of the promise that “Imole” means light, not darkness. Fact 2: Osun people have a history of punishing arrogance.

In 2018, they rejected APC’s imposition. In 2022, they rejected it again. In 2026, they rejected it a third time. Osun voters have shown that, “money really doesn’t answer all things”. You can bring bags of rice, you can bring federal might, but if the people are hungry, they will vote with their stomachs.

Fact 3: Adeleke’s body language is not Adeleke’s base. Listen to Davido and his father. The Adeleke political machine in Osun is “people power party”. The local chairmen, the councillors, the youth leaders. They are not following Adeleke to APC because he took a picture. They are watching to see if Abuja will release Osun’s projects and arested LG funds and structure. To assume that one photograph dissolves decades of consistency in Osun is to gamble with 2027.

The danger of assumption #2 “Southwest is Tinubu’s birthright” This is where it gets more dangerous for APC. The Southwest is Tinubu’s political base. No one disputes that. He built it.

He funded it. He delivered it in 2023. But 2023 was three years ago. And a lot has happened since then. Let’s go state by state:

Oyo State: The Makinde factor: Governor Seyi Makinde is not just popular. He is institutional.

He has delivered infrastructure, revived the economy, and built a PDP structure that won him re-election despite federal pressure in 2023. To assume Oyo will “go to APC because Adeleke smiled” is to ignore that Makinde controls a new party structure, the teachers, the artisans, and the Ibadan vote. Oyo people ask: “What has Abuja done for us?” The answer right now is: not enough. What of the classic imposition that humiliated the scion of “Penkelemesi years”?

Lagos State: The humiliated Governor: Lagos is APC’s headquarters. But Lagos is also angry.

They can’t ignore the power of incumbency as Nasarawa State Governor just warned. The governor was humiliated during the last party primaries when the process was taken away from him. Party elders imposed candidates. Council chairmen were handpicked. The grassroots felt sidelined.

Even the president’s daughter lamented it. Lagos people are also feeling food inflation the most. A bag of rice in Mile 12 is not cheaper because the President is from Lagos. The Oluomo’s men aren’t smiling in 2026 with the consequential PMS/diesel price and other economic matters arising. To assume that Lagos is automatic is to forget that Lagos voters are the most sophisticated and the most unforgiving in Nigeria. Recall 2023.

Ondo State: The angry structures and humiliated Governor: Ondo APC is fractured. The governor was also sidelined and humiliated in the party’s internal process. Factions exist. The Akeredolu loyalists are still smarting. The people remember that Ondo gave APC votes in 2019 and 2023 and got little back in federal presence. Even Pa Fashoranti’s son was recently humiliated by ‘Abuja politicians’ who don’t care about the morning after their arrogance in Abuja.

Ogun State: Again, the imposition spirit: The governorship candidate was imposed. The party is split between old and new structures. Ogun people are industrial, educated, and they vote on issues. Inflation is hitting Abeokuta and Shagamu traders hard. Loyalty to “son of the soil” from Lagos does not pay school fees. The very aggrieved former governors are quite influential. Just like Omisore in Osun.

Ekiti and Kwara: Already captured Ekiti is small but vocal. Kwara is “O to ge” but also “O ti ri ise?” Have you seen work? The point is simple: No state in the Southwest and satellite states is automatic in 2027. “The Southwest gave Tinubu 2023. But 2027 will be earned, not inherited.”

The real issue: People are hungry. All politics in Nigeria from now till 2027 will be about one thing: the cost of living. Food inflation is at record highs. A bag of beans is N120, 000. A loaf of bread is N2, 000. Transport fare has tripled. House rent crisis is ticklish. This is not an APC problem alone. It is a governance problem. But the party in power owns the problem.

The danger for APC is this: You cannot campaign on photographs when people are campaigning on prices. Osun people just showed you. You can bring federal ministers. You can bring money. You can bring thugs. But when a mother cannot feed four children, she will vote for the man who looks like he understands her pain.

Governor Adeleke, for all his drama, looks like he understands. Perception wins elections. So, APC’s assumption that “structure will cover it” is dangerous because structure without stomach infrastructure collapses.

The danger of assumption #3: “More money will do what money cannot do”. There is a belief in some APC quarters: “We lost Osun because we didn’t spend enough. In 2027 we will spend more.”

This is the most dangerous assumption of all. Osun 2026 has proven that, “money is necessary but not sufficient”. Voters are now wiser: WhatsApp, X, Facebook, Instagram, Radio have educated voters. They collect the money and still vote their conscience.

Economic pain is personal: N10, 000 on election day does not erase 12 months of hunger. Youth voters are different: 40% of voters in 2027 will be under 35. They don’t vote because of “party leaders.” They vote because of data, jobs, and dignity.

To assume that “more money” will flip Oyo, Lagos, Ondo, and Ogun is to prepare for a shock in 2027:

What APC must do instead – CONNECT FIRST…If the goal is to win the Southwest and Nigeria in 2027, then the work starts now. And it is not with photographs. It is with policy, empathy and delivery.

CONNECT WITH THE PEOPLE, NOT JUST THE GOVERNORS
The President must go to markets in Ibadan, in Akure, in Abeokuta, in Katsina, in Maiduguri.

Not for rallies. For listening. What is the price of garri? What is the price of transport?

FIX WHAT HURTS MOST: FOOD AND TRANSPORT
Release grains. Subsidise fertilizer. Fix the rail. Make CNG buses real, not press releases. People will forgive a lot if their pot is full.

RESPECT PARTY STRUCTURES: Stop imposing candidates in Ogun, Ondo, and Lagos. Let primaries’ results stand. An angry party structure will sabotage you in 2027.

DELIVER VISIBLE PROJECTS: Not just Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road. Southwest, Northwest, North East, South East, South South people want to see federal presence: equipped universities, hospitals, roads, power.

STOP READING BODY LANGUAGE, READ DATA: Commission real polls. Talk to market women. Talk to Okada riders. The photograph with Adeleke is not data. The price of tomatoes is data.

WHAT ADELEKE’S GESTURE REALLY MEANS: Let’s be fair to Governor Adeleke. He is not a fool. He knows that to govern Osun state, he needs Abuja. He needs federal projects. He needs to avoid a repeat of 2018 where the centre fought him. So he played the game. He smiled. He shook hands.

He said, “Mr President is my leader.” That is politics. Smart politicians in Abuja should understand this. The ones who don’t will be shocked in 2027.

If APC continues with assumptions, if they rely on photographs, money, and structure, and ignore hunger, if they allow PDP, SDP, ADC, NDC and other forces mobilise around economic pain, Southwest splits 3-3, the election will be decided in the North. The Wildcard: A new coalition forms around economic issues, not party. It sweeps urban Southwest: Lagos, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Akure, Ado-Ekiti. APC is reduced to a regional party again. Which scenario happens depends on what APC does between now and 2027.

A letter To APC Leaders in Abuja And Osun
Gentlemen, that photograph with Adeleke is good PR. Frame it. But do not frame policy around it. Osun people have spoken. They said: “We are hungry.” Southwest people are saying: “We are watching.” Do not assume that because one governor smiled, 40 million Southwest people have surrendered. Do not assume that because you have money, you have votes. Osun people just proved you wrong. Do not assume that because this is Tinubu’s base, it is automatic. Bases are lost when they are taken for granted. The work is hard. It is in the markets. It is in the farms. It is in the price of food items. Do that work, and 2027 will be yours. Ignore it, and that photograph will be the only thing you have to show in 2027. And here is why: in democracy, assumption is the mother of defeat.