An economist, Prof. Chiwuike Uba, has challenged the Federal Government to move beyond reporting improved macroeconomic indicators and demonstrate how its economic reforms are translating into higher productivity, stronger businesses, job creation and improved living standards.

Uba, in his assessment of ‘Nigeria’s Economic Reforms: By the Numbers’ unveiled by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, acknowledged that Nigeria’s fiscal and macroeconomic positions have changed substantially since 2023, but said the figures did not provide a complete picture of the impact of the reforms.

He said the scorecard established what has changed, but did not sufficiently answer what changed because of the reforms, who bore the costs, who benefited and whether the benefits ultimately outweigh the costs.

According to him, the distinction is particularly important for businesses because fiscal improvements can occur at the same time as higher operating costs for households and companies.

Uba noted that while the removal of the petrol subsidy may have reduced government expenditure, it also increased transport, logistics, food distribution and production costs, meaning that fiscal savings should not automatically be regarded as equivalent welfare gains.

He specifically questioned the Federal Government’s reported N15.8 trillion in estimated subsidy savings between June 2023 and December 2025, noting that the resources did not accrue solely to the Federal Government.

Uba said the critical question now was what the different tiers of government did with the additional resources, including how much was invested in infrastructure, health, education, water, salaries and pensions, and whether those expenditures produced measurable improvements in public services.

He also challenged the presentation of the Federal Government’s reported N20.4 trillion in incremental resources, pointing out that only N8.55 trillion represented its share of estimated subsidy savings and other incremental revenues, while N11.85 trillion represented additional borrowing.
He said borrowing was a financing resource rather than revenue because it provides funds today in exchange for future liabilities.

For the business community, Uba said the next critical test of the reforms should be whether macroeconomic stabilisation is translating into a more productive economy.

The Federal Government reports real GDP growth of 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, while the International Monetary Fund estimates growth of about 4.2 per cent for 2026.

Uba, however, said the growth figures demonstrate recovery and improved macroeconomic stability rather than economic transformation, arguing that productivity, employment, real household income and poverty provide more meaningful measures of economic performance.

Uba therefore said Nigeria’s next phase of reform must focus on converting macroeconomic stability into productivity and stronger private-sector competitiveness.

He identified reliable electricity, better infrastructure, improved security, stronger human capital, industrialisation, export diversification, digitalisation and private-sector competitiveness as critical to achieving that transition.

He also cautioned against relying heavily on the Federal Government’s ambition of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030 as the primary measure of economic success.

According to him, nominal GDP measured in dollars can be significantly influenced by exchange and inflation rates and may therefore rise or fall without a corresponding change in productive capacity.