Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) FZE could hit a market capitalisation of N77.7 trillion at a 12-month target price of N688.09 or 39.6 per cent, CardinalStone Research said.

The investment research firm, in its September 2026 initiation of coverage on the refinery, said the expected return comprises 31.1 per cent capital appreciation and an 8.5 per cent dividend yield, based on a reference price of N525 per share.

It used a combination of discounted cash flow and relative valuation methods for its projection.

The projection comes as Dangote Industries Limited prepares for the planned initial public offering (IPO) of the refinery.

In a press statement shared yesterday, the President and Chief Executive, Aliko Dangote, said the IPO would give Nigerians an opportunity to move beyond being consumers of refined petroleum products to becoming owners of the asset.

Dangote said the planned listing represented more than a financial transaction, as it would enable Nigerians to participate directly in the value chain of products and services that affect their daily lives.

“Every day, Nigerians use products that depend on refined petroleum. What makes this IPO unique is that it gives people the opportunity not only to consume but also to participate as owners in the industrial system that powers economic life,” he said.

The firm said the refinery’s prospects are supported by its scale, high-complexity configuration, flexible crude sourcing model and access to Nigeria and wider African markets.

It noted that Africa continues to face a major gap between refined product demand and local supply, leaving the continent dependent on imports.

The report said the refinery’s Nelson Complexity Index of 11.5 enables it to achieve refined product yields of more than 90 per cent per barrel. At the same time, its configuration supports the production of higher-value products meeting Euro V specifications.

“The refinery’s high NCI underpins its ability to convert crude into a broad slate of high-value products across the yield curve,” it said.

The refinery has also strengthened its position in Nigeria’s downstream market. CardinalStone said DPRP supplied about 80.8 per cent of domestic PMS between January and June 2026, while domestic sales accounted for about 47.5 per cent of volumes over the last five quarters.

Operational performance has improved sharply since commercial production began. Throughput increased from 225,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 410,000 barrels per day in 2025, lifting utilisation from 34.6 per cent to 63.1 per cent.

Revenue also rose 94.6 per cent year-on-year to $12.3 billion in 2025, while EBITDA moved to $545.3 million from a $425.1 million loss in 2024.

In the first half of 2026, the company’s revenue rose 150 per cent year-on-year to $13.9 billion, while EBITDA reached $2.6 billion.

The refinery’s average utilisation rose to 86 per cent of its 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity during the period.

Its capacity was subsequently raised to 700,000 barrels per day in the second half of the year.

CardinalStone recalled plans to raise refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028 through a $12.4 billion expansion programme.

It projects that the expansion would make DPRP the world’s largest single-location integrated refining and petrochemical complex, surpassing India’s Jamnagar refinery.

The expansion also includes increasing polypropylene capacity to 2.4 million tonnes per annum from 830,000 tonnes.

The research report said the petrochemical business could improve earnings diversification and increase value captured from each barrel processed.

Dangote said the planned public offering was also intended to broaden ownership of productive infrastructure, noting that strategic assets had traditionally been beyond the reach of ordinary citizens.

“When a businessman transports goods, when a farmer moves produce to the market, when a manufacturer powers production, when families travel across the country, energy plays a role. The refinery supports these activities. Through the IPO, Nigerians can now have a direct stake in the value being created,” he added.

However, CardinalStone identified crude supply, execution, foreign exchange, regulatory and market risks. It said the refinery has had to source some crude from the open market despite its supply agreement with NNPC, exposing it to price volatility.

It also warned that delays in expansion, exchange rate movements and increased competition could affect performance.

CardinalStone said higher crude prices could raise feedstock costs, although access to domestic crude may provide some protection from disruptions in the Middle East.

It added that tight global refined-product supply could support refining margins.