African businesses must move beyond traditional efficiency-driven supply chain models and invest in resilience, diversification and foresight to withstand growing geopolitical, energy and trade disruptions, stakeholders have said.

They spoke yesterday in Lagos at the second edition of the African Centre for Supply Chain (ACSC) conference themed, “From Fragility to Foresight: Securing Africa’s Supply Chains Amid Geopolitical Shifts.”

The stakeholders said Africa’s heavy dependence on external suppliers, vulnerable transport corridors and inadequate regional production capacity exposed businesses to shocks capable of driving up costs, disrupting production and worsening inflation.

Director General, African Centre for Supply Chain, Dr. Obiora Madu, said efficiency alone was no longer sufficient for businesses operating in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.

“Prior to now, everybody talks about efficiency, want to be efficient. Efficiency is not enough any longer because disruption will kill you completely,” Madu said.

According to him, companies must deliberately build resilience into their supply chains by diversifying suppliers and identifying vulnerabilities beyond their immediate business partners.

“If you use the suppliers as an example, you will have your supplier, then you put standby suppliers. And like I said, map your supply chain. Where is this supplier sourcing? You may find out that the three people who supply you are sourcing from one person. And that is dangerous for you,” he said.

Madu said the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the danger of excessive dependence on a single sourcing market, particularly China, noting that companies were forced to reassess their supply arrangements after factory closures disrupted global production.

He also identified energy costs as another pressure on businesses, saying companies were already adopting alternative energy solutions to maintain operations.

“Everybody is trying his own way. This resilient infrastructure can be people. It can be technology. It can be equipment to deal with energy,” he said.

On transportation, Madu called for greater utilisation of Nigeria’s rail and inland waterway systems to reduce pressure on roads and lower logistics costs.

“We know that railway is the best for all,” he said, adding that Nigeria needed to think beyond a conventional transport policy towards a broader logistics framework covering transportation, warehousing and supply-chain activities.

Also speaking, Professor Frank Ojadi of the Department of Operations Management, Lagos Business School, said the next competitive advantage for African economies would be their ability to continue producing and delivering goods when global systems are disrupted.

“The next competitive advantage for African economies will not simply be the ability to produce more. It will be the ability to continue producing, moving and delivering when the world at our loss is disrupted,” Ojadi said.

He noted that COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, shipping disruptions and changing trade policies had exposed weaknesses in supply chains built around low-cost sourcing, lean inventories and limited alternatives.

Ojadi urged African countries to develop regional supply networks under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with countries specialising in different stages of production.

“We should not simply ask, how can Africa trade more with Africa? We should ask, how can Africa produce more together?” he said.

He also advocated the use of artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, Internet of Things, satellite data and digital platforms to identify emerging risks before they become major disruptions.

“Foresight does not mean predicting exactly what will happen,” Ojadi said. “Foresight asks a different question: What will happen and what will we do if it happens?”

Director, Mechanical Engineering, Lagos State Ministry of Transportation, Olasunkanmi Ojowuro, said secure supply chains depended heavily on resilient transport infrastructure.

He said geopolitical tensions, conflicts, shipping disruptions, energy insecurity and changing trade relationships could quickly translate into higher costs, shortages and delays for African businesses.

“Resilience cannot be built after the crisis arrives. It must be engineered before the crisis,” Ojowuro said.

He urged greater investment in roads, railways, waterways, ports, technology and data-driven transport systems, alongside diversification, local capacity development and regional integration.

The stakeholders agreed that supply-chain resilience should not be treated merely as a defensive business strategy but as an opportunity to deepen African industrialisation, local production, employment and intra-African trade.