Global merchandise trade remained resilient in mid-2026 despite geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties, with demand for artificial intelligence-related products helping to offset the impact of the Middle East conflict, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said.

The WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer rose to 102 from 101.7 in June, remaining above the 100-point baseline that separates above-trend from below-trend trade.

The barometer, a composite leading indicator, provides an early signal of the direction of global merchandise trade.

According to the report released over the weekend, all component indices remained above trend except container shipping, which slipped to 99.6.

Electronic components recorded the strongest reading at 104.9, reflecting robust demand for goods linked to AI investment.

The export orders index, regarded as a highly predictive indicator, also strengthened to 103.5, pointing to continued trade growth in the months ahead.

International air freight and agricultural raw materials both stood at 102.6, while automotive products rose to 101.5.

The readings suggest that merchandise trade has continued to withstand heightened uncertainty over trade policies and geopolitical tensions.

The latest data comes against the backdrop of the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, which forecast global merchandise trade volume growth of 1.9 per cent in 2026 under its baseline scenario and 1.4 per cent under a high-energy-price scenario.

The latter reflects the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

The WTO said sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to global merchandise trade growth.

Year-on-year growth in world merchandise trade volume also remained positive in Q1 2026.

However, the WTO warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz were expected to have a greater impact on trade data for the current quarter when the figures become available.