The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has projected that if election is conducted in early October across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the All Progressives Congress (APC) has an edge in 19 states, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) 10 states while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) eight states.

Speaking during a press conference in Lagos on his group’s forecast, the Convener of PIG, Lai Omotola, stated that the monthly electoral map should not be interpreted as a final declaration of the eventual election result, but as a snapshot of the political landscape based on developments at the time of the assessment.

“Last month of September you were here to receive the briefing on the only authentic electoral map and we are all witnesses to the intense debate it created.

“On the monthly electoral map, it is for parties to see where they are weak and strong and this does not suggest the final result but rather if elections were to be held this month this projection is likely to be the outcome.

“In the course of September notable political activity occurred such as the denial of entry of Mr Peter Obi, one of the leading political opponents of President Tinubu into Benue state. Secondly the working vacation of Mr President created intense debate suggesting an absentee President. Thirdly is the continuous push of Alhaji Atiku on subsidy and sudden turnaround.

“In terms of campaign rallies across the nation, the APC seems to be mobilizing more followed by the NDC but unable to form a Presidential campaign Council while ADC have formed a Presidential Campaign Council but major campaigns are yet to be seen from ADC. Finally there is a brewing fight between the APC governors and Mr Wike which could be significant.

“This electoral map for October shows that the APC lost two states including Rivers but gained Adamawa, reducing the number of states won by the APC from 20 in September to 19 in October.

“The ADC remained dominant in September with 9 states but unfortunately lost Adamawa to APC. In October electoral map projects ADC will win 8 states.

“In October, the NDC increased the number of states from 8 in September to 10 states in October.

“The summation of the projection is APC is leading with 19 states, NDC with 10 states and ADC with 8 states. Let us caution that this result is presumed under a free and fair election.”