Onanuga claims Nigeria’s debt under Tinubu below 36% of GDP

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that global public debt is on course to exceed 100 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), urging governments to stop delaying policy action as high energy prices and rising borrowing costs put further pressure on economies.
 
But President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, defended Nigeria’s debt position, saying it remains relatively low at about 35 per cent of its GDP.
 
“Another stubborn fact for those whose stock in trade is to denigrate Nigeria and the Tinubu presidency and raise baseless alarms about our sovereign debt,” Onanuga posted on X yesterday.
 
Giving the warning in Singapore yesterday ahead of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, next week, IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, said global public debt was approaching its highest level since the aftermath of World War II, while the world economy faced three major pressures: the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI), persistently high energy prices and record public debt.
  
“You have the tools; now acquire the wisdom to use them,” Georgieva told policymakers.
 
She said oil prices remained around $100 per barrel despite a fragile recovery in supplies from the Gulf, while a global shortage of refining capacity added another $100 per barrel in refining margins, pushing diesel and other refined products to record highs.
 
Natural gas supplies from the Gulf also remain severely disrupted, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is under threat.
 
According to Georgieva, Brent futures point to sustained high oil prices through 2027, even if the conflict in the Gulf ends soon.
  
She described recent rate increases by the United States Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan as appropriate, saying a “prudently hawkish bias” could be suitable for many economies.
 
On fiscal policy, Georgieva said highly indebted advanced economies were not moving decisively enough to contain their debt burdens. She called for credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans and urged emerging markets to expand fiscal space and build foreign exchange buffers.
 
The IMF estimates that AI could add up to 0.5 percentage points to annual global growth over time, raising the growth rate from about three per cent to 3.5 per cent.

Onanuga while reacting to a ranking published by StatiSense showing the public debt-to-GDP ratios of selected African countries, said the figures showed that Nigeria was not among Africa’s most indebted countries.
 
The ranking, which cited IMF data, placed Sudan at 169.1 per cent, Senegal at 132.3 per cent and Mozambique at 106.1 per cent, while Nigeria was listed at 35.5 per cent.
  
“Our country is not among Africa’s most indebted countries. Unlike the countries listed here, our debt burden is about 35 per cent of our GDP,” he said, praising President Tinubu and his economic management team for “responsible leadership”.
 
The statement comes amid continued debate over Nigeria’s borrowing, debt stock and capacity to service its obligations as the Federal Government seeks to finance infrastructure and other expenditure.
 
The Federal Ministry of Finance reports total public debt of about N166.7 trillion as of the second quarter of 2026, with the debt-to-GDP ratio put at 35.5 per cent.
 
IMF’s April 2026 Fiscal Monitor had earlier projected Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 32.3 per cent for 2026, down from 35.5 per cent in 2025. It projected the ratio would rise slightly to 33.1 per cent in 2027.
 
The debt-to-GDP ratio measures a government’s debt against the size of its economy, but does not, on its own, determine whether a country can comfortably service its obligations.
 
Analysts also consider government revenue, debt-servicing costs, interest rates, foreign exchange movements and the structure of the debt when assessing fiscal sustainability.
 
Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) reported that the country’s total public debt stood at N159.28 trillion at the end of December 2025, before subsequent increases in the debt stock. The debt comprises obligations owed by the Federal Government, states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).