UN Women has warned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could leave an additional 11.7 million women and girls facing food insecurity by the end of 2026.

According to a new analysis published by UN Women, the disruption is driving up energy, fertilizer and transport costs, with rising food prices placing further pressure on livelihoods and household resources.

The analysis, titled; “Food Security Risks of the Middle East Escalation for Women and Girls,” estimates that women and girls could account for 53 per cent of the projected 22 million additional people who may face food insecurity by the end of the year across 28 countries.

The figure is in addition to an estimated 208 million women and girls who were already food insecure or undernourished in the countries analysed.

UN Women stressed that the figures are scenario-based estimates and not forecasts.

“We know, as a matter of fact, that when food becomes scarce, women eat less and last,” UN Women Deputy Executive Director, Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda said.

She added that women often shift to less nutritious diets or skip meals to prioritise the needs of others, while gender inequalities determine access to food and the resources needed to obtain it.

“Therefore, investing in women and girls is a sure way of ensuring the well-being of families and communities,” she said.

The analysis noted that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing energy, fertilizer and transport costs, which could further raise food prices. Potential income and livelihood losses could compound the pressure, making food increasingly difficult for vulnerable households to afford.

It said women were particularly exposed because existing inequalities in employment and access to financial services often leave them with fewer resources to absorb economic shocks.

While more populous countries could record the largest numbers of women and girls facing additional food insecurity, UN Women identified South Sudan, Sudan, Haiti, Yemen and Palestine as facing more concentrated risks because of overlapping vulnerabilities.

In South Sudan, the additional number of women and girls who could face food insecurity represents about 14 per cent, or one in seven, of the country’s female population, the highest proportion among the countries analysed.

Lebanon follows, with the additional number representing nearly four per cent of its female population.

Women and girls could also constitute a disproportionately high share of those facing food insecurity in several countries. In Afghanistan, they are estimated to account for 60 per cent of people who could face food insecurity, while the proportion is more than 57 per cent in Yemen and nearly 56 per cent in Sudan.

The report also linked women’s employment status to food security, noting that about 80 per cent of women are outside the labour force in Egypt, Iraq, Palestine, Sudan and Syria.

The figure rises to about 95 per cent in Afghanistan and Yemen.

Among employed women, more than 80 per cent are in vulnerable employment in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali and South Sudan, according to the analysis.

UN Women further identified access to financial services as a potential buffer against economic shocks, but noted that many women lack such access.

In Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan and Yemen, it said fewer than one in five women owns a bank or mobile money account, limiting their ability to save, receive remittances or cash assistance, or borrow safely when prices rise or incomes fall.

The agency said this could increase reliance on informal lenders, relatives or other household members, potentially exposing women to safety and protection risks.

UN Women called for an integrated response combining food and cash assistance with nutrition, protection, livelihoods and agricultural support.

It also urged measures to ensure women have access to land, credit, services and other productive assets, while calling for resources to be directed to areas where women and girls face multiple, overlapping risks.

The agency said assistance should be delivered at the appropriate time, including ahead of agricultural seasons, and called for better data to identify where food insecurity is worsening and who is eating less, losing livelihoods, taking on more unpaid care work or facing heightened nutrition and protection risks within households.

UN Women also joined calls for de-escalation and respect for international law, while echoing the United Nations Secretary-General’s call for all concerned parties to pursue diplomatic solutions that advance regional and international peace and security.