By Alabi Williams

The 2023 elections in Lagos were a shocker for many, particularly the Lagos establishment and their clients. The electoral disruption created by then candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the presidential election, Peter Obi, was monumental, and it left the strong impression that hard political nuts were still possible to crack.

Traditionally, from 1999, Lagos used to be a clean-sweep for the mainstream party, what used to be Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and now the All Progressives Congress (APC). But Obi came and captured Lagos with 582, 454 votes, trailed by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, with 572, 606 votes. The margin was not massive, but the implication was nightmarish to the old order. It was not in the calculations at the time that a little-known LP or any opposition for that matter, could create such electoral impact.

Even the governorship election that followed on March 18, 2023 was a hard-won for APC, despite the doubly redoubled strokes upon the foe, as Shakespear would say. The LP candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour posted an impressive 312,329 votes while incumbent Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu won by a good margin with 762,134 votes. Could that happen again in 2027?

It was inconceivable and is still is, that Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) and his party could lose their stronghold of Lagos, the source of their political and economic strength. As 2027 is in focus, is Lagos prepared for another round of surprises? Has anything change in the last four years to suggest the likelihood of another resurgence in the opposition?

For a decade and a half until 2015, Lagos used to be the fortress of opposition politics. This is where BAT (the Jagaban) once held forth as the consummate leader and defender of opposition politics. Under him, Lagos was ensconced from the turbulence and dislodgements orchestrated by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) across many states, including five states in the Southwest.

In 2015, BAT took Lagos to the centre as major stakeholder in the APC-led Federal government. Even in those precarious years, Lagos was jealously guarded from predatory federal might. How much more now!

Since 2023, Lagos has not just been the fulcrum of the Federal Government, it is the other consequential center away from Abuja. When President Tinubu is not holidaying in Europe, he comes to Lagos to hold court and ensure that his political investments are intact. Like the good husbandman, President Tinubu has not strayed far from his vineyard. Between May 2023 after he relocated to Abuja and now, a search showed PBAT has visited Lagos for nearly 25 times. No other state is that lucky. It shows how significant Lagos is in the President’s calculations.

To ensure nothing goes awry, Tinubu had set up the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), a conclave of elder statesmen to micromanage local politics on his behalf. Their assignment is to ensure that no overzealous disciple attempts to overthrow the supreme leadership established by the Jagaban. They monitor the arms of government and take notes for the Leader. The Leader has ensured that the establishment is well organised and there is peace and stability.

But on one occasion in January 2025, when President Tinubu was in faraway Abu Dhabi, in the UAE, to attend the Sustainability Week (ADSW) Summit, the GAC conspired with 32 of the 40 lawmakers in the Lagos State House of Assembly (LSHA), to remove the Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa. A new Speaker, Mojisola Meranda, was installed. Two weeks later, when President Tinubu returned, he overruled GAC and returned Obasa to office as Speaker. The Leader doesn’t joke with Lagos. That is why 2027 is crucial, particularly now that he is the President of the Federal Republic.

Governors who have ruled the state since 2007 are cleared by Tinubu. Leadership in Lagos is not dictated by forces of demand and supply. Once a candidate is anointed, all other aspirants surrender their interests. The primary election to select the 2027 governorship candidate was just to fulfill the requirement of the law.

The institutions of state have been lined up to accept that order and work to deliver. That includes players in the informal sector. It is a value chain that works for the stakeholders, whose political and economic wellbeing is secured as long as the system survives.

For context, Lagos has a projected population exceeding 20 million, a large portion of which is documented and others floating; they come and go. Lagos holds about a quarter of the country’s economy, pretty larger than many African countries. Lagos averages around N260 billion monthly in IGR, over N1 trillion per year. That is around 44 per cent of combined IGR generated by the 36 states.

No political party will let go of Lagos without a fight. That’s why the stakes appear so high, particularly for those who are traditional custodians of Lagos’ wealth. The political leadership and their supporters will leave no stone unturned to maintain their foothold. At the same time, the opposition dreams of the day when governance in Lagos would change hands.

That is why the candidates for the 2027 Lagos State governorship election are upbeat and pushing messages across media platforms. The social media is awash with jabs. In 2023 the ethnic card was played, which was unfortunate because Lagos is outstanding because it is diverse and the competition among groups and persons used to be robust and healthy. That resort to ethnic baiting is still noticeable, with some still bent on playing identity and language politics. But so far, there’s a healthy debate out there.

Candidates have followed up with physical visits to sensitive and influential places. They are engaging spiritual leaders in worship centers to present themselves as civilised Lagosians who belong to all. Lagos has been outstanding in managing religious diversity. The business community is not left out in the consultations. Lagos has the largest agglomeration of corporate taxpayers. Banks and financial institutions, oil companies, telcos and others are headquartered in Lagos. The next government cannot afford to be far from them.

Outlook of the parties
Without a doubt, the APC has continued to hold fast to its dominant position in Lagos. Having governed the state since 1999, the ruling party is entrenched across the 245 federally recognised Wards and 376 political Wards, including the Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs). In terms of structure, the APC is formidable.

The party has control of the local governments and the markets. It has a firm control of the House of Assembly. It has more resources and more control of all levers of power and authority. To challenge the APC in Lagos is always like a fight between David and Goliath. 2023 was a departure from the norm.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), is obviously the next most visible party in Lagos. Since 2023, Rhodes-Vivour has kept the opposition flame burning. The ADC has more weight across the country than other opposition parties. When push comes to shove, it can count on other heavyweights outside Lagos for support and mobilisation.

The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), in Lagos is mildly visible. The idea is that Lagos NDC could utilise the popularity of its presidential candidate Peter Obi, to make inroads in certain constituencies of Lagos, the way it happened in 2023. But it appears voters may become doubtful of the fidelity of candidates who appropriate the Obi political aura to win elections only to surrender their victory to the ruling party.

The PDP in Lagos has receded from its position of number one opposition in the state. Over the years, the Jagaban took advantage of the party’s weak arrowheads in the state to depopulate and neutralise it. The Jagaban has also just perfected the complete annihilation of the PDP at the centre, with the hiring of FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike.

The Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Labour Party (LP), Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and eight others have presented candidates for the Lagos governorship election.

Despite formidable strength or structural weaknesses of parties, there are other Nigerians whose votes are needed for parties to win elections. As it happened in 2023, there are non-party bystanders who are waiting for the elections to come. They have their preference and parameters.

For instance, some naturally yearn for change. The dominance of one party in the state for 27 years has created a political cult from which millions of Lagosians have no access. Access is therefore, one critical area campaigners must work on to broaden their reach. The flow of resources in the political value chain of Lagos has been consistent, from the state to ward levels.

The contractors and suppliers of materials have to be members of the same party to guarantee returns and electoral support. The skewedness has implication for political participation and inclusion. This has gone on in Lagos for too long and outsiders see the recycling of persons and groups, while others are denied opportunity to get involved. It is a patronage system that benefits a few.

The winner-takes-all system is blamed by the opposition and accountability groups for what they describe as the deeply entrenched opacity and lack of transparency in the application of resources in the state. They allege that it is difficult to pry into the books because the system is too closeknit to allow transparency to take place. They want a change.

There are others who want the rule of law to prevail in the state. They want their governor to be his own man and nobody’s boy. They want their governor to be respected and allowed to exercise the powers granted him by the Constitution. In other words, they’re tired of godfathers working behind the scene and dictating for the governor. They also want an independent legislature, where members are allowed to decide their leadership, one that is accountable to the people.

However, for the opposition to reenact that 2023 surprise in Lagos, perhaps, they need to work together. They’re too fragmented.