Adebajo: Musings of a marabout

IN traditional African societies, marabouts are diviners who seek to predict the future. Several African leaders have employed these futurologists, and it is important to apply their methods in reviewing Africa in 2015.

    Starting in West Africa, elections in Nigeria – Africa’s largest economy – in February could lead to massive political instability if not carefully managed. West Africa’s Gulliver has often teetered on the brink of disaster before pulling back from the edge of the abyss. Buffeted by allegations of institutionalised graft and low oil prices, the administration of Goodluck Jonathan has demonstrated rank incompetence and callous indifference in countering the challenge of Boko Haram which has also negatively affected Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. The All Progressives Congress (APC)-led by General Muhammadu Buhari, who is himself hardly a paragon of democratic governance –  is stronger than any  opposition that the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has ever faced. Although no ruling party has ever lost presidential elections in Nigeria, any attempt to rig these polls is likely to be met by popular opposition which could draw in the military. 

   Despite the presence of United Nations (UN) peacekeepers, much of northern Mali still remains infested with Tuareg and Islamist rebels. Neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire is preparing for elections in October, and will need to ensure that its economic recovery is consolidated through greater political reconciliation. Ghana and Senegal must skilfully manage future oil proceeds, while Burkina Faso will need to stabilise its political economy following the ousting of long-ruling autocrat, Blaise Compaoré, last October. Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea will make progress in battling the Ebola epidemic which has killed 8,429 people and infected 21,296. 

   In Southern Africa, South Africa’s “service delivery” protests are set to continue as is the “load-shedding” that has damaged the credibility of Africa’s most industrialised country. With continuing splits in the ranks of the trade unions, labour unrest could return, and anaemic growth of 2% contrasts starkly with the rest of Africa’s 5%. Following elections in Zambia this month, the country will need to improve its investment climate to continue attracting investment to its mining sector. Oil-rich Angola has raised its diplomatic profile by becoming a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. New presidents in neighbouring Namibia and Mozambique will move to consolidate their power, while political instability could return to Lesotho and Swaziland. 

   In Eastern Africa, elections will be held in Ethiopia, Tanzania, Sudan, and Burundi this year. Ethiopia’s government will need to show greater tolerance towards its domestic opposition, even as it keeps peace in Somalia and Sudan. Tanzania’s ruling party will effect another smooth political succession, but will need to tackle growing inequality and religious intolerance. Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir is expected to win presidential elections and, with an International Criminal Court (ICC) war crimes indictment hanging over his head like a sword of Damocles, has no incentive to leave power. Burundi will need to curb growing political autocracy which it shares with Rwanda, though the latter – awash with donor assistance – has proved more effective at promoting socio-economic development even while destabilising the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 

   Eastern Africa’s economic giant, Kenya, will need to develop a less iron-fisted counter-terrorism approach, reconcile its Muslim minority, and invest its oil and gas discoveries wisely. Uganda is seeking to use its oil discoveries to build infrastructure, but will continue to stifle political competition at home even while intervening militarily abroad. The conflict in oil-rich South Sudan will continue to consume the sub-region’s diplomatic energy.

   In Central Africa, UN peacekeepers will continue to attempt to stabilise mineral-rich Central African Republic (CAR) and the DRC, though both countries will continue to be denied substantial resources for sustainable peacebuilding. The petro-states of Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon will continue to demonstrate various forms of autocratic rule and intolerance of dissent.

   Finally, North Africa will see the continuing reversal of the “Afro-Arab” spring. Egypt’s strongman, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, will continue to clamp down on civil society and press freedom, while tax increases and fuel subsidy cuts could result in increased social unrest. Libya will continue its descent into anarchy centred around its two rival warlord-based governments in Tripoli and Tobruk. Pressure will increase for the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force. Tunisia will continue to muddle through its fragile democratic transition having elected the septuagenarian, Béji Caïd Essebsi, as president last December. Algeria’s president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, remains gravely ill, and there are real concerns that, like recent leaders in Zambia, Malawi, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, he could succumb to ill health. The shadowy securocrats and politicians that wield power in Algiers stand ready to fill the vacuum.

   The marabout’s cowries suggest another eventful year for Africa in 2015.  

• Dr. Adebajo is Executive Director of the Centre for Conflict Resolution, Cape Town, South Africa.