Experts foresee worse unemployment data as NBS releases report

As Nigerians await the release of labour market data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in May, experts have predicted that the unemployment figures are expected to worsen, following the protracted poor performance of the economy in the past few years.

This is even as they hope that data to be released by the agency, saddled with the responsibility of national economic statistics, will reflect the current realities.

They argued that with many jobs that have been lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the many young graduates that joined the labour market, insecurity and other socio-economic challenges, Nigerians should be expecting rates worse than the last result.

The NBS released its last Labour Force Statistics in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 when unemployment and underemployment reports stood at 33.3 per cent and 22.8 per cent respectively.

However, to improve the statistical system, the NBS had disclosed that it was coming up with a redesign of the Nigerian labour force survey, termed ‘Labour Force Statistics Framework’ to replace the old ‘Labour Force Statistics: Unemployment and Underemployment Report’.

It said the new approach places Nigeria at the frontier of global labour market statistics, where it builds on efforts to bring the questionnaire and other aspects of the methodology in line with International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards.

The NBS said it collaborated with the World Bank on supporting the efforts through the Fiscal Governance and Institutions Project (FGIP).

It stated that the new methodology would tell an unbiased story of the Nigerian labour market statistics as it should be told.

The methodology, the NBS said included the adoption of the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) standard ‘
Resolution concerning statistics of work, employment and labour underutilisation’, provides measures for underutilisation, beyond unemployment and recognises and provides a framework for measurement of all work, paid and unpaid.

It said the use of a one-hour criterion for employment would ensure unemployment is regarded as a total lack of employment, while calling for more attention towards the assessment of the quality of employment.

Already, a professional services firm, KPMG, had said the unemployment rate would increase to 40.6 per cent in 2023, due to decreased economic growth and the inability of the nation’s economy to absorb about four to five million graduates yearly, into the labour market.

In their reactions, Assistant General Secretary of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Chris Onyeka, urged the NBS to release a database, which reflects the realities on the ground.

He said most times, independent research is conducted on macroeconomic indices, “we always come will figures different from the NBS, especially on unemployment and inflation rates.”

Stating that he was not expecting lower than what was released last, he said unemployment data should be close to 40 per cent.
“When you disaggregate the data, you find out that youth and women unemployment is understated. Fresh graduates are churned out yearly to join the labour market and the capacity of the labour market to absorb fresh graduates is limited, even the ones there cannot find space. The figure should be close to 40 per cent,” he said.

Similarly, Vice President of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC), Tommy Okon, who also said he was not expecting anything less, said the issue of underemployment should be looked into critically.

He lamented that a lot of Nigerians’ earnings are not commensurate to their educational status, stating that many are working just to put food on their table.

“Nobody would have expected youths will go to Sudan for greener pastures but due to socioeconomic challenges, for a country, we are far better than by any standard,” he said.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the country’s unemployment data has not only improved but worsened.

He said: “With 33.3 per cent, if you apply to the people in the working age group, you will see that the number would be quite big because the population has grown and more people have graduated to that group. The unemployment has not improved and the number would have grown significantly.”

However, he said the country’s situation has made more persons to be creative.

He said the move where many young Nigerians have ventured into creativity and generating income through the means, may somehow reduce the high rate of unemployment.