The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has released its latest global trade outlook, highlighting a mixed picture for world trade this year through 2026.
Africa, for one, is expected to record the fastest-growing trade volume this year.

According to the report, global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow from 2.8 per cent in 2024 to 2.4 per cent by the end of this year and 0.5 per cent in 2026.

The report notes that AI goods and frontloading lifted world trade in 2025, but the outlook dims for 2026.

Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in H1 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes and strong trade among the rest of the world.

In response, economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4 per cent (up from 0.9 per cent in August).

However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5 from 1.8 per cent. Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8 in 2024 to 4.6 per cent in 2025 and 4.4 per cent next year.

Global and regional projections indicate that Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export volume growth by year-end, with modest performances also anticipated from South and Central America, the Caribbean and the Middle East, while Europe will likely see slower growth.

North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) face declining exports. Least-developed countries (LDCs) are expected to show robust export gains but face weakening trends ahead.

On the import side, Africa and LDCs are set to experience the fastest growth, contrasting with a contraction in North America. In 2026, only North America, Europe and CIS will post an improvement in export performance; all regions will record weaker import performance in 2026.

According to the WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world.

The report highlighted that the volume of world merchandise trade, as measured by the average of exports and imports, grew 4.9 per cent year-on-year in H1 2025. The value of world merchandise trade in current US dollar terms was up six per cent year-on-year in H1 2025, following a two per cent increase in 2024.

Trade growth drivers in H1 included the frontloading of imports in North America and favourable macroeconomic conditions such as disinflation, supportive fiscal policies and strong growth in emerging markets.