The ongoing Middle East conflict has generated a major shock to global energy, fertiliser, and agrifood systems in Nigeria and Africa at large.

A central factor is the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor linking Gulf energy producers with global markets. Under normal conditions, the strait carries around 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products per day—roughly onequarter of global seaborne oil—along with significant volumes of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and fertiliser exports.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) latest information warns that the conflict could have serious knock-on effects for Africa’s food systems, largely through higher energy, transport, and fertiliser costs.

The report highlights that many African countries rely on fertiliser imports from Gulf producers, meaning disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could raise prices, reduce fertiliser use, and put added pressure on smallholder farmers and food production.

It added that countries such as Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, and Mozambique are among those flagged as especially exposed, while West African producers including Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire could also feel the impact through higher input costs and pressure on key crops.  

The report reveals that as Africa is one of the import-dependent regions, the continent is most vulnerable if the crisis continues, adding that rising fuel and shipping costs could make food imports more expensive, while reduced fertiliser use could weaken yields and contribute to higher food prices later in the year.

“Within days of the conflict, tanker traffic through the strait collapsed by more than 90 percent, severely restricting shipments. This disruption rapidly transmitted volatility to global energy markets and the global agrifood system.

The Persian Gulf plays a central role in the global energy system. Countries in the region, including Bahrain, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, account for a large share of global oil and gas exports.

Approximately one fifth of global LNG exports originate in the Gulf. The region is also a key supplier of refined fuels such as Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), diesel and jet fuel.

“As maritime risks increased and insurance costs surged, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply, forcing producers to reduce output. By early March, export volumes through the corridor had fallen to less than 10 percent of pre-conflict levels, leaving an estimated 10 million barrels per day of oil production temporarily shut in because of export constraints.

“Global markets reacted immediately. Oil prices rose rapidly as traders incorporated a substantial geopolitical risk premium to market expectations. Brent crude prices increased by about 20 to 35 percent in the first days of the conflict, briefly reaching around $115 to $120 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark prices rose above $100 per barrel.”

FAO added that natural gas markets experienced even stronger movements, particularly in Europe, where benchmark prices increased by roughly 50 to 75 percent during the first weeks of the crisis, stressing that these developments have tightened global energy markets and increased costs across transportation, industry, and agriculture.

“Beyond energy, the Persian Gulf is also a major hub for global fertiliser production and exports.

Countries such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are among the world’s leading exporters of nitrogen fertilisers, including urea and ammonia.

In recent years the region has accounted for roughly 30 to 35 percent of global urea exports and around 20 to 30 percent of ammonia exports.

“Overall, up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilisers normally transit the Strait of Hormuz. With maritime traffic severely disrupted and several production facilities damaged or temporarily closed owing to security concerns, fertiliser supply chains have been heavily affected. Production cuts and shipping constraints have stalled an estimated three to four million tonnes of fertiliser trade per month.”

Unlike oil, the note stated that fertiliser sector does not have internationally coordinated strategic reserves, making supply disruptions more difficult to manage. “Prices have already increased significantly. In early March, Middle East granular urea prices rose by nearly 20 per cent compared to late February levels, while other fertiliser prices, such as diammonium phosphate, also rose. Because nitrogen fertiliser production relies heavily on natural gas as a feedstock, the rise in energy prices has further amplified production costs.

“It is estimated that global fertiliser prices could average 15 to 20 per cent higher during the first half of 2026 if the crisis continues. These developments are beginning to affect global agricultural commodity markets. Rising fertiliser costs and higher fuel prices increase production expenses for farmers and may lead to reduced fertiliser use in many regions. Lower input application could result in lower crop yields later in the year and tighter global grain supplies.”