The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said it remains cautiously optimistic that economic output performance in the second half (H2) of 2026 will remain positive, supported by financial services, telecommunications, construction, trade, oil refining and other service-sector activities.

It also noted that inflation is expected to remain substantially below 2025 levels, although food supply disruptions, energy costs and developments in global commodity markets could pose risks.

This comes even as the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that Nigeria’s food security crisis is worsening faster than previously anticipated, with a recently completed Cadre Harmonisé analysis showing that more than 17 million people across nine conflict-affected states in northern Nigeria are experiencing crisis, emergency or catastrophic levels of hunger, requiring about $89 million over the next six months to address.

The CPPE in a document, ‘Nigeria’s economy in 2026: half-year review and second-half outlook’, noted that although growth is likely to remain below Nigeria’s long-term potential, the economy appears firmly on a gradual recovery path.

The document signed by the Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Ysuf, also noted that the second half of the year posed an important downside risk due to the increasing intensity of political and electioneering activities ahead of the 2027 elections.

According to the centre, election-related spending could inject additional liquidity into the economy, with possible implications for inflationary pressures, foreign exchange demand and macroeconomic management.

The centre said the improvement in macroeconomic indicators provided an important foundation for sustainable growth, but it is not sufficient on its own.

“The next phase of reform should focus on lowering production costs, improving productivity and strengthening the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. Priority should be given to improving electricity supply, transport infrastructure, logistics efficiency and port operations; strengthening security in farming communities and along transport corridors; expanding access to affordable long-term finance for productive sectors; accelerating budget implementation, strengthening budget process credibility and improving infrastructure delivery; and deepening domestic value addition,” it stated.

According to the WFP, in Borno state, where insurgent attacks have become increasingly frequent and food assistance has been cut, the analysis shows more than three million people are acutely food insecure.

“Of these, more than 750,000 people are in severe hunger conditions, and over 10,000 people are facing catastrophic hunger. While those in catastrophic hunger represent a small share of Borno’s overall food-insecure population, it provides a stark warning that conflict, displacement and shrinking humanitarian assistance are pushing the crisis into more dangerous territory. What concerns us most is how this crisis is expanding,” said WFP Regional Director for West and Central Africa, Kinday Samba.

Meanwhile, funding shortfalls mean that humanitarian assistance is shrinking. While the number of people food insecure in three northeast states has increased to 6.2 million, WFP is only able to support 740,000 of them, leaving 5.5 million people, particularly children, without lifesaving food and nutrition assistance.

“This is a significant drop from the 1.3 million people WFP was able to support at the height of the 2025 lean season”, the agency said.