Despite the easing of global logistics disruptions that characterised the COVID-19 era, Nigeria and the rest of Africa are yet to take full advantage of the ongoing shift of global manufacturing supply chains, the Pan African Manufacturers Association (PAMA) has decried.

The association’s Secretary-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the latest developments in global supply chains show that manufacturers are no longer concentrating production in a single location but increasingly diversifying their networks to improve resilience, manage geopolitical risks and ensure continuity of supply.
 
He explained that the structural shift presents one of the biggest industrial opportunities for Nigeria and Africa, but warned that the continent continued to attract only a modest share of the investments flowing from the reconfigured global manufacturing.

Citing recent data by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which tracks freight costs, shipping conditions and manufacturing delivery times across major industrial economies, he said the figures tell a more nuanced story than the common perception that global supply chains have simply returned to normal.

According to him, the unprecedented logistics crisis triggered by the pandemic has largely subsided.

After peaking at 4.45 standard deviations above its historical average in December 2021, the index fell significantly as shipping capacity improved, port congestion eased, and supplier delivery times recovered.

“However, recent readings show that global supply chains have not returned to a permanently stable environment,” Ajayi-Kadir said.
  
He noted that the index rose from 0.44 in January 2026 to 1.82 in April, then eased marginally to 1.77 in May, indicating that while supply chain pressures remain well below pandemic levels, they are beginning to re-emerge.

“During the pandemic, disruptions were driven by factory shutdowns, labour shortages and transport bottlenecks. Today, geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions, export controls, industrial policy interventions and disruptions to strategic maritime routes are increasingly shaping production and sourcing decisions,” he said.

According to him, although global supply chains have become operationally more resilient, they have also become more politically exposed and accelerated the adoption of the “China Plus One” strategy, under which multinational companies retain substantial operations in China while expanding production into alternative locations to reduce concentration risks.

He regretted that countries like Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Mexico continue to attract significant manufacturing investments because of their efficient logistics systems, reliable infrastructure, coherent industrial policies and preferential access to major export markets.

“They are positioning themselves as complementary manufacturing hubs within diversified global value chains rather than outright substitutes for China,” he said.

He lamented that Africa continued to capture only a negligible share of the manufacturing relocation despite a huge labour force, expanding consumer market and abundant natural resources.

While acknowledging that some African countries have attracted small investments, he said the continent was yet to establish itself as a preferred destination for large-scale supply chain diversification. He argued that investment decisions by global manufacturers now extend beyond labour costs to include the reliability of electricity supply, transport infrastructure, logistics efficiency, customs performance, supplier ecosystems, regulatory predictability and access to integrated regional markets, which Nigeria lacks.

For Nigeria, he described the current restructuring of global manufacturing as one of the defining industrial opportunities of the decade. He said the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides the institutional framework for transforming fragmented African economies into a single production space capable of supporting regional value chains in automobiles, pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, chemicals, textiles, electronics and light engineering.

According to him, Nigeria can only maximise the opportunities if regional market integration is supported by competitive industrial parks, reliable electricity, efficient ports, modern customs systems, supplier development programmes and a predictable investment climate.

He also stressed that strengthening intra-African supply chains should receive as much attention as attracting multinational manufacturers.

“Expanding regional sourcing of industrial inputs, intermediate goods and components under AfCFTA will reduce dependence on distant suppliers, shorten delivery times, improve resilience to external shocks and deepen value addition across African manufacturing. In many industries, building stronger regional production networks may deliver faster and more sustainable gains than waiting for large-scale manufacturing relocation from outside the continent,” he said.
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