The Sea Empowerment and Research Centre (SEREC) has cautioned the Federal Government that prolonged uncertainty and delays surrounding the review and renewal of the country’s port concession agreements pose a significant risk to port efficiency, trade facilitation, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow, government revenue streams, investor confidence and macroeconomic stability.

In a position paper issued by the Head of Research, Dr Eugene Nweke, SEREC acknowledged the oversight responsibility of the House of Representatives to review the concession agreements, urging that the process must be transparent, follow clear legal procedures, avoid political undertones, protect national economic interests and provide transitional certainty.

The research centre said nearly two decades after the transfer of terminal operations to private concessionaires under the supervision of the Nigerian Ports Authority, the first cycle of concessions has matured, prompting calls for review and renewal of the agreements.

SEREC noted that Nigeria’s ports generate substantial income through concession fees, throughput charges, customs duties and marine services, adding that uncertainty within the concession framework could discourage cargo volume growth and affect federal revenue projections.

SEREC also warned that uncertainty around renewal timelines could lead to capital flight and an investment freeze, as terminal operators may suspend capital expenditure (CAPEX), equipment upgrades and automation projects investments.

The organisation said such delays would further result in ageing infrastructure, declining productivity and loss of competitiveness to regional ports such as Tema, Lomé and Abidjan.

Operationally, the research body warned that this could cause delayed equipment replacement, reduced maintenance commitments, declining staff morale and limited investment in workforce skill development.

SEREC cautioned that operational efficiencies lead to higher demurrage charges, increased vessel waiting time and freight costs, ultimately increasing inflationary pressures on imported goods with Nigerian consumers bearing the burden.

SEREC also cautioned that global shipping lines, which are highly sensitive to operational risks, may begin to reroute cargo to more predictable and stable regional ports, as shipping is risk-sensitive with investors and global carriers prioritising only predictability.

The group also stressed that regulatory inconsistency could weaken Nigeria’s ability to attract foreign direct investment, noting that investors interpret policy inconsistency as regulatory risk.

SEREC explained that while Nigeria is currently positioning itself as an investment destination, infrastructure investors demand stability, not retroactive reviews, as the maritime sector uncertainty sends negative signals to global financiers.

The group stated that reliability determines capital flow in a competitive global capital market, warning that any instability in port operations has direct and wider macroeconomic consequences, including reduced customs revenue, pressure on foreign exchange liquidity, disruptions to industrial supply chains and negative impacts on the trade component of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

On the legal front, SEREC said failure to provide clarity on concession renewal frameworks could expose the government to arbitration disputes, compensation claims and reputational damage in international investment circles.

According to the centre, global investors rely on the sanctity of contracts as a benchmark for entering emerging markets,

SEREC also stressed the need for Nigeria to demonstrate to global investors that contractual agreements are respected, regulatory transitions are predictable and infrastructure policies are insulated from political cycles.

The centre added that in the global competition for investment capital, countries are judged not only by policy ambition but also by the consistency and reliability of their regulatory environment.

SEREC called on the Federal Government to immediately communicate a clear concession renewal framework, including timelines and evaluation criteria for terminal operators to avoid an operational vacuum.

The centre also recommended that no concession agreement should be allowed to lapse without a structured transitional arrangement to prevent operational disruptions within the ports.