Crossing the trillion-dollar mark for an economy still heavily reliant on oil will require more than rhetoric. It demands productivity on a scale much higher than the current performance of the power sector, WALIAT MUSA reports.

Despite being Africa’s largest economy and one of its most resource-rich nations, Nigeria has long struggled to provide stable, affordable power to its citizens and industries. Electricity generation has stagnated at around 4,000 megawatts (MW) to 5,500MW, which is inadequate for a country of over 200 million people. More than 80 million Nigerians remain without electricity access. For businesses, power shortage increases production costs and forces reliance on expensive diesel generators.

These challenges cast a long shadow over the country’s trillion-dollar economic aspirations. Experts have warned that without a functional power sector, Nigeria’s economy will remain trapped in a cycle of underperformance.

At the recently held Bullion Lecture 2025 in Lagos, top energy and economic experts gathered to tackle this exact dilemma. How can Nigeria power its economic dreams without fixing its foundational electricity problems?

The stakes could not be higher as Nigeria grapples with the conflict between ambition and reality. The road to a $1 trillion economy is not only about vision statements but also about procuring transformers, turbines, gas pipelines and policies that work.

Former Power Minister and Chairman of Geometric Power, Prof. Bart Nnaji, did not mince words when he described the gap between ambition and execution.
“Substantial investments in gas will encourage more thermal plants, which the country needs. Nigeria currently generates about 5,500MW, but it should be up to 30,000MW by 2030,” he said, referencing the Vision 30:30:30.“I believe we should aim for 100,000MW by 2040 if we want to become a higher medium economic power,” he said.

The 30,000MW target is under threat, he said, noting that the previous administration’s suspension of guarantee instruments for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) has frozen the development of new power projects. Without instruments like Partial Risk Guarantees (PRGs) to reduce investor risk, he said, no private entity will be willing to build power plants that cost upwards of $1.5 million per megawatt.

Despite possessing over 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, Nigeria has failed to effectively power its 24 existing gas-fired plants, a fact Nnaji described as “inexplicable”. He drew a sharp contrast with Algeria, which has just 2.9 trillion cubic feet of gas but has achieved full electricity access for its citizens.

While Nigeria focuses on exporting gas to Europe through transnational pipelines, millions at home remain in darkness, he noted.
“Charity must begin at home,” he stressed, arguing that natural gas should be seen not just as a transition fuel but as the cornerstone of Nigeria’s energy security strategy.

President of the Women in Energy, Oil and Gas (WEOG), Tolulope Alonge, echoed similar concerns, describing the sector as the heartbeat of any serious economy. She warned that without structural reforms and aggressive investment, the foundation required for industrialisation, digitalisation and job creation would remain weak.

She advocated for grid decentralisation, the adoption of hybrid energy systems, and the pursuit of a Just Energy Transition that does not leave behind host communities and underserved regions. But for this to happen, she said, independent power producers (IPPs) must be supported and not strangled by red tape and unpaid bills.

“There should be deliberate policies around access to finance, regulatory support and liquidity guarantees. That is the only way Nigeria can leverage gas as a transition fuel,” she said.

CEO of ThinkBusiness Africa, Dr OghoOkiti, offered perhaps the most sobering assessment of Nigeria’s power conundrum. For him, the issue is not technical or financial, but political.

Okiti noted that while seven per cent of annual economic growth is required to reach the $1 trillion target in ten years, Nigeria currently grows at just three per cent.

That sluggish pace, he argued, is a direct result of inattention to core growth enablers: affordable electricity, low cost of food, and access to quality skills.

He also highlighted how Nigeria’s dependence on what he called “foreign knowledge” for technical capacity hampers the growth of domestic innovation and industrialisation, yet another reason to him why infrastructure like power must be treated as foundational.

“Nigeria is the greatest country for visions. We spend so much time on visions and so little time on execution. At our current growth rate of three per cent, it will take 24 years to reach a $1 trillion economy. To get there in 10 years, we need to grow at seven per cent or more annually,” he said.