U.S. oil production to hit 18.6 million bpd in 2040

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that the U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production would grow from 14.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 to 18.6 million bpd in 2040.

This projected growth is expected to come from crude oil and condensate production, which includes natural gas plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries,

Given the uncertainty inherent in making projections, EIA also includes several alternative cases, based on different assumptions for world oil prices, macroeconomic growth, resource availability, technology improvement, and other factors.

According to the agency, differences in crude oil from tight formations (tight oil) and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) account for most of the differences in production across these cases.

EIA said in a statement on Monday, that the oil price cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude oil prices on U.S. production and use of petroleum.

It disclosed that by 2030, the Brent crude oil spot price averages $49 per barrel in the low oil price case, $104 per barrel in the reference case, and $207 a barrel in the high oil price case.

“In the high oil price case, increased energy efficiency, conservation, and fuel switching reduce projected consumption. The converse is true in the Low Oil Price case, where demand increases in response to low prices. In the High Oil Price case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2022.

“In the resource and technology cases, the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil wells in the United States, undiscovered resources in Alaska, and the offshore Lower 48 states are 50 per cent higher or 50 per cent lower than in the Reference case. Rates of technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are also 50 per cent higher or 50 per cent lower than in the Reference case. In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2024.

“In the Reference case, relatively low prices through 2017 have the greatest effect on tight oil production, which drops to 4.2 million b/d in 2017 before increasing to 7.1 million bpd in 2040. The increase in tight oil production is largely attributed to higher oil prices and the ongoing exploration and development programs that expand operator knowledge about producing reservoirs. Of all the crude oil and liquids types, tight oil changes the most across cases: in the High and Low

“Resource/Technology cases, tight oil production in 2040 ranges from 3.12 million b/d in the Low Resource/Technology case to 12.9 million b/d in the High Resource/Technology case”.