Autonomous cars will increase to 21m by 2035, says report

Forecast released by the International Highway Safety revealed that autonomous deployment will start with several thousand vehicles in 2020 and then grow to nearly 4.5 million by 2035.

The report, released on Wednesday noted that despite the uphill battle of legislation and regulation, 21 million fully and semi-autonomous vehicles will be sold globally by 2035.

The U.S. is expected to lead the way with initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicles as it works through challenges posed by regulation, potential liability and consumer acceptance.

The report said that U.S. autonomous deployment will start with several thousand vehicles in 2020 and then grow to nearly 4.5 million vehicles by 2035.
According to the report, Japan will ramp up industry coordination and investment before 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

The forecast further said that nearly 1.2 million vehicles will have some form of autonomous driving capability in Japan and South Korea, collectively, by 2035.

Director of Research at IHS Automotive, Egil Juliussen said: “Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025, our new forecast reflects a 43 per cent compound yearly growth rate between 2025 and 2035 — a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets.”

The forecast incorporated factors including current market development of foundational technologies, r&d announcements and collaboration projects underway, which include discussions and initiatives between manufacturers and ride-sharing companies.

Analysts from Wells Fargo said that autonomous content per vehicle will cost $5,000. Wells Fargo said Delphi Automotive has the most all-in dollar content potential with autonomous driving sensors and software at potentially $2,000 per unit.