Grappling with legal heat, electoral confusion about Ondo 2016

Who trumps the system: Oke or Agunloye?
Who wants to plunge Ondo State into political violence? That would remain a central question as the judiciary tries to wriggle itself out of the prevailing confusion preceding the November 26 governorship poll in the state.

Even ordinary citizens in the state and beyond have started suspecting that there is an attempt to test-run some improbable schemes in the governorship election in readiness for the 2019 general election.

It is also obvious that the fact that whoever wins the governorship election would sit comfortably as governor of the state, unshaken by the fever of the 2019 election. Consequently as incumbent governor, he would be able to affect the direction of votes in the state as well as affect the momentum of the presidential election in the Southwest.

Those are some of the sub-plots fueling the intrigues unfolding in Ondo. Yet, given the fact that the governorship election is less than two weeks away; could the courts conclude action on the litigation clouding the candidacy of some gladiators in various political parties?

One of the critical “ifs” surrounding the litigations concerns the belief in certain quarters that one of the claimants to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket, Mr. Jimoh Ibrahim, wants to take the eventual outcome of the appeal to the apex court and arrest the process there in such a way to create doubts in the minds of voters that he could be the ultimate beneficiary of a possible victory of PDP.

It could be against the background of such concerns that suggestions are being muted for a possible shift in date for the governorship election from November 26, by two weeks as it bhappened in the Edo State edition.

Those who fly the flag of postponement express the view that such is necessary to ensure that the voters are clear as to the actual options on the ballot to choose from during the election, instead of creating room for judicial ambush.

Pointers to a possible sinister plot to programme the electoral system in Ondo emerged not long after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), acting on the order of an Abuja High Court, substituted the name of the PDP governorship candidate earlier listed on its records with that of Jimoh Ibrahim.

Ekiti State Governor, Ayodele Fayose reportedly accused Ibrahim trying to become governor through the back door, stressing that there was no way Ibrahim could be governor through hook and crook.

Olusegun Mimiko

In his sharp retort, Ibrahim cautioned Fayose from jumping into the fray so early. He urged the Ekiti governor to “wait till after the election in Ondo State, we shall move to Ekiti in full force to enforce Justice Okon Abang’s judgment, which also covers the Ekiti State executive of the PDP. So, it is better for Fayose to prepare and also learn from the experience of Governor .”

That singular pronouncement by Ibrahim has not lost the cadence of a bigger plot designed to take over the Southwest with Ondo acting as a precursor. However, some notable Yoruba elders who read meanings into Ibrahim’s outburst cautioned that Ondo should not be used as a testing ground for another state of emergency as happened in the first republic.

Reprieve from the court
What could be described as a temporary reprieve for the Mimiko camp loyal to the Senator Ahmed Makarfi’s faction of PDP came recently when the Court of Appeal granted leave to Jegede to appeal the ruling of Justice Abang.

Ruling on the application filed by the Ondo State factional PDP chairman, Biyi Poroye, in which he challenged its jurisdiction, the special panel of the Appeal Court, described the application as lacking in merit.

According to Justice Salauwa, who was supported by the two other panelists, Justices Ignatius Agube and George Baba, “the application was absurd, a blackmail, utmost mischief, abuse of court process aimed at annoying the appellant and obstructing justice.”

The court further held that “it was a misnomer for the Appeal Court President to consult with parties before setting up any panel which would undermine his administrative powers as enshrined in the constitution.”

Agunloye

Perhaps in a demonstration of the possibility that citizens of Ondo are eager for fairness and peaceful resolution of the political encumbrance caused by Jegede’s replacement, supporters broke into spontaneous jubilation in celebration of the Appeal Court ruling, which some even interpreted as victory for Jegede.

But as the new panel set up to look into discrepancy over who is the authentic candidate for the election gets an all clear to begin sitting, tension still lurch in the various camps. Jegede is the candidate of the Ahmed Makarfi-led faction, while Ibrahim is the candidate of the Ali Modu Sheriff faction.

Although Senator Ali Modu Sheriff sits at the head of the PDP faction on which Ibrahim is claiming nomination for the gubernatorial poll, sources disclosed that certain tendencies interested in the 2019 presidential election are actually propelling the claim by Ibrahim.

Mimiko had while speaking with journalists in Akure disclosed that he was forced to relocate to Abuja after he noticed that some individuals in the Presidency were working hard to bend the rules and impose a candidate on PDP in Ondo. The governor stopped short of calling names, but noted that since INEC had a PDP candidate in the recent Edo election; it would amount to willful mischief to change the template in Ondo.

The outgoing governor however enjoined citizens of the state that were of voting age to go and collect their permanent voters’ card in readiness for the ultimate showdown, stressing that the “battle would be won with votes.”

APC: Exile of heavyweights
If the turnout at last week’s campaign flag off for the APC candidate, Rotimi Akeredolu, could be used as a yardstick to measure the competitiveness of the party in the forthcoming election, then they have to do more home work.

The event showed that recriminations that hit the party shortly after the governorship primary have not been rested. And should the party eventually lose the governorship election, Akeredolu and the national leadership of the party had to share the blame.

Signs that the party leadership has failed to resolve the crisis showed up at the arena, when most of the heavyweights earlier advertised as special guests failed to show up. In the place of President Muhammadu Buhari, what the few party faithful saw was the colourless Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), David Babachir Lawal.

And instead of the four incumbent governors of the zone, only Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State came to add colour and moral support to Akeredolu. Above all, the absence of erstwhile governorship aspirants, Senator Ajayi Boroffice and Dr. Segun Abraham, gave away the hidden fact that APC was going into battle with a thoroughly divided house.

Although the SGF handed the flag to Akeredolu and Agboola Ajayi, the only message that most attendees could remember was the plea by Amosun to “those angry should please forget the past and work together so that opposition political parties would not have edge over us.’’

However Akeredolu’s supporters said the party bigwigs are expected at the grandfinale of the campaign to drive his message of change home to Ondo voters. A lot of people hold unto the belief that the absence of Bola Tinubu signals a possible poor outing for APC in the Sunshine State.

Olusola Oke

Which Olu would Trump the show?
As the political juggling continues to define the buildup to the November 26 election, most analysts have started x-raying the potential of the candidates of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Olusola Oke and Social Democratic Party (SDP), Olu Agunloye, to beat the system and clinch the governorship seat in a similar way Donald Trump defied incumbent support to win US presidency.

Ever since he defected and grabbed the AD governorship ticket, Oke has remained the butt of vicious media and verbal attacks from APC. Some elements in the party have also threatened to drag the AD candidate to court to strip him of the “unmerited candidature”, alleging that he was not qualified to contest the governorship having not participated in the party’s primary election.

For the SDP, the shaky political structure and paucity of funds have continued to limit its operations, even as its candidate promises to embark on a programme of renewal and development of the state.

Both Oke and Agunloye are veterans of Ondo governorship elections battle. The two alongside the APC flag-bearer contested against the outgoing governor in the 2012 version. Of the three veterans, only Agunloye is not distracted by vexatious litigations or carryover of primary election disputations.

Whether therefore Agunloye or Oke would emerge as the possible surprise victor of the governorship poll depends on what happens to Eyitayo Jegede at the courts, where his fate hangs.