Diverting half the shipping capacity currently enjoyed by the Apapa and Tin Can Island ports in Lagos to other hinterland sea ports will short circuit the rising economy of Lagos State within a period of 2 to 3 years. Many states will be affected, as distribution channels will have to be readjusted as will be dictated by movements within the demand side. On the other hand, maritime commercial traffic will increase within those states enjoying new extra quotas of shipping activities while their internally generated revenue profiles will appreciate.

Nigeria’s commercial industry is almost totally dependent on imports and, if 97% of incoming containers to the nation’s sea ports are being hosted by the two Lagos ports, then it is quite safe to assume that these two ports are the main contributors to the huge economy of the state. These coupled with their 97% of all inbound import receipts contribute to the market concentration being enjoyed by Lagos. As a medium to large scale commercial enterprise with operational offices located away from the Kogi – Ondo axis, for example, it makes sense to have a branch of the business, even if a warehouse, situated in Lagos State if only to save good money and time.

The nation is blessed with a few natural deep sea ports as that at Onne and Koko in Delta State, if only the present state governor could complete the ongoing construction work initiated by the previous government. Badagry also has the potentials for a deep sea port. These natural deep sea ports are capable of handling ocean liners that carry huge amounts of cargo.

Though commercially viable, building a third sea port in Lagos at Badagry to be owned and operated by the Lagos State will not create that big revenue jump as envisaged by the state. For now and in the foreseeable future, the strength of its economy will come from the huge population of Nigerian consumers who, under an import dependent economy will invest in, consume and depend on imports 97% of which are allocated to the ports in Lagos. But as the overall amount of imports to Lagos is reduced and more imported cargo go to other sea ports, there will be a reduction in the number of importers going to Lagos resulting in the erosion of the market density. If, for example, the Warri port is dredged and expanded with road and rail networks from Warri to Onitsha constructed as contained in the original economic development plan; if the River Niger is dredged from Onitsha to Kogi State to accommodate large barges, then the Lagos ports will no longer be attractive to an importer operating from, say, Anambra, Enugu, Benue, Nassarawa, Kaduna, Plateau States and beyond.

Finally, if what I have heard elsewhere about the restructuring of the sea ports is anything to go by, the Federal Government who are the owners of those ports in Lagos will need to be cautious in carrying out the programme. Timing is crucial while the urge to implement it piecemeal must be avoided. In the spirit of fairness and to open up the economies of states where other ports are located, a large amount of imports presently enjoyed by Apapa and Tin Can ports must need to be diverted to other sea ports, but as earlier stated above, great care must be taken in the process.

The state itself is in the verge of breaking away from its biggest source of income to other economies as is evident in their engagements with the Eko Atlantic City project, the refinery plant under construction, the upcoming airport project and plans to include cargo terminals to boost commercial activities. There is also the ongoing Eko Light Rail, all these being capital projects that would require the status quo to remain for at least 7 to 10 years from now.