CONTINUED FROM WEDNESDAY 20/01/2016

Beacons of hope
We have seen what has been generally described as the anti-corruption body language of Mr. President. This president does “give a damn” as far as public declaration of assets is concerned. And so does the vice-president. We have also seen a seeming reduction in the size of government and the courts buzzing with anti-corruption cases. With respect to specific policies and strategies, I believe the following are commendable:
1. The focus on diversification of the economy ;
2. Efforts aimed at recovering looted funds ;
3. The implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) ;
4. The retention and expansion of effective financial management tools and strategies such as Integrated Personnel and Payroll

Information System (IPPIS) and Government Integrated Financial and Management Information System (GIFMIS) introduced by the previous administration ;
5. The creation of the Efficiency Unit or E-Unit to ensure efficient use of allocations ;
6. The 223 per cent year-on-year increase in capital expenditure ;
7. The reforms in the petroleum sector especially in relation to the structure, functions and management of the NNPC and the re-examination of the fuel subsidy conundrum; and
8. The infrastructure agenda with a phased strategy for roads, housing and power .
A critical assessment of our national trajectory

Any fair assessment of this administration must be carried out in the context of promises made to Nigerians during elections. Therefore, our assessment shall be against the backdrop of the top campaign promises of Mr. President, the president’s inaugural address, and the APC manifesto. Hence, by asking salient questions as we go on, we shall examine the policies on five major issues namely:
i. Economic diversification
ii.Infrastructure
iii.Human Capital Development
iv.National Security and
v.Critical Aspects of Financial Management
•Economic diversification

We must examine the diversification thrust not just in terms of the over-reliance of the federal government on petroleum for export revenue but also in the failure of state and local governments to internally generate revenue. How can we effectively diversify the economy as regards mining and allied industries, for instance, without taking another look at Item 39 of the Exclusive Legislative List of the 1999 Constitution which confers powers in this regard exclusively on the federal government? This provision hampers the ability of states to generate income and create jobs through investment in solid minerals. Is it a coincidence that every state of the federation is endowed with mineral resources? Would it not be a better strategy for states to be empowered to manage these resources?

The need for diversification also brings to the fore the question of viability of states in relation to the need for economies of scale. Can the states, as presently constituted, maximize their endowments even if more power were to be devolved to them? This, I believe, also explains the inability of states to optimize agriculture as it is on the Concurrent Legislative List.

This introduces to the debate the need for a zonal or regional approach to national development, and in this regard we ask: is it sheer coincidence that the nation’s bio-geographical features, including the vegetation belts and rivers, roughly divide the landscape into six geographical zones? Shouldn’t these zones provide a basis for economic mapping and development? Why were the regions in the days of our Founding Fathers so economically viable to the extent of sustaining the federal government? Why can’t we begin a geo-economic path to geopolitical restructuring? Who is afraid of zonal commissions and geopolitical zones; and, if I may add, who is afraid of zonal federating units? Time has come for us to “feed our faith” in this regard and “starve our fears to death”.

•Infrastructure
According to the Minister for Power, Works and Housing, of about 200,000 kilometres of total road networks in the country, the federal government owns 16% or 36,000km which bear an estimated 70% of the total traffic . The state governments own 18% and the local governments control the remaining 66%. According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), out of Nigeria’s total road network of 200,000km, only about 30,000km is paved . It is perhaps safe to assume that federal roads constitute the majority of paved roads.

A transportation infrastructure map often reflects the socioeconomic profile. These statistics suggest at least two gruesome facts: firstly, that most states and local governments lack the needed capacity to maintain an efficient network of roads and, secondly, given the low traffic on those roads, that the federating units have been unable to facilitate the evolution of vibrant sub-national and local economies that can in turn feed into the national and global economy. The need for such local economies is in keeping with the argument that small and medium enterprises are the heart of any national economy. The inability of the federating units to comfortably fund infrastructure projects is an aberration in a federal system.

Despite the massive investment in the power sector, the short-term target of 6000 megawatts has remained a mirage. As at mid-December 2015, electricity generation stood at 3,730.24 megawatts . Have we exhausted options with respect to electricity generation, transmission and distribution? Is deregulation without devolution a sustainable pathway to uninterrupted electricity supply? Must the national grid constitute a gridlock to progress?

Why can’t the state governments, working as zonal blocs, come together with the federal government, to design an inter-modal transport system, as well as a hybrid power infrastructure model, along the lines of regional comparative advantage, and begin to push for the appropriate legal regimes to facilitate its implementation? Why can’t we allow for electricity generation, transmission and distribution at the zonal, state and community levels, such that domestic consumption needs are met at the sub-national levels, while the national grid becomes an electricity exporting vehicle serving the rest of West and even Central Africa, generating income for the federation that could be distributed on the derivation principle based on percentage generation?

•Human Capital Development
Central to human capital development is the education of our people. However, there is a regional or zonal dimension to the state of education in the country in terms of access. While 56.75 per cent of the population in the North-East is uneducated, 54.85 per cent of the North-West and 30.3 per cent of the North-Central population lack access . In the southern zones, the uneducated population statistics are: 14.35 per cent for the South-West, 14.7 per cent for the South-East, and 9.55 per cent for the South-South . These disparities are brought about by socio-cultural, security, economic, and, sometimes, geographical factors. In light of these statistics and causal factors, is it not common sense policy-making to have zonal regulation of education, with each zone charged with the responsibility of developing qualitative and quantitative human capital in order to maximize the peculiar potential of the respective zone, in line with a national vision that links education to industrialisation?

•National security
Given the circumstances, the government may have already begun to do all within its power to combat terrorism. However, considering regional, geographical and cultural peculiarities, why not allow zonal coalitions of states to design and implement regional security strategies in conjunction with the federal government? Why have we bought into the deceptive notion that the security of our nation will be hampered if we introduce policing at federal, regional, state and community levels?
Consider the exploits of the Civilian JTF (Joint Task Force) in Borno State and imagine them to have been part of a regional or even a state police force in their own familiar terrain. Who can tell what a devastating impact such a formidable local force could have had on insurgents and terrorists, especially in terms of intelligence gathering, had they been a much more organised and well-coordinated security force? The earlier we remove the legal bottlenecks in the way of achieving the maximisation of our local resources in this regard, the better our chances of defeating insurgents and terrorists in record time.

•Petroleum sector
At this juncture, given the resurgence of the subsidy conundrum, it has become needful to pre-empt or respond to those who might be wondering if our January 2012 protests were organized in error. Let me reiterate that the Save Nigeria Group (SNG) did not mobilize the people of this country to the Gani Fawehinmi Park at Ojota merely to protest the removal of the fuel subsidy but to challenge the corruption that defined the fuel subsidy regime. Even at that time, we recognized the unsustainability of the subsidy regime but maintained that corrupt politicians, in collusion with certain private interests, had plundered the national treasury through fictitious fuel subsidy claims and were merely hiking the fuel price to mobilize funds to cover up the negative effects of their actions on the economy. We insisted then that it was not a deregulation as was being claimed by the government but a hike in fuel price. We demanded the prosecution of those indicted in the damning report of the Farouk Lawan Committee, a phenomenon we referred to as “Kleptocracy Unlimited”, where, for instance, 999 million naira was reportedly paid 129 times, totalling 127,827 billion naira, to some companies, by the office of the Accountant-General of the Federation .

Four years later, those indicted persons have not been prosecuted. Do we still need to wonder why corruption is so endemic and very pervasive in our nation today? Here is the verdict of Heaven:

Ecclesiastes 8:11-13 (NKJV):
11 Because the sentence against an evil work is not executed speedily, therefore the heart of the sons of men is fully set in them to do evil. 12 Though a sinner does evil a hundred times, and his days are prolonged, yet I surely know that it will be well with those who fear God, who fear before Him. 13 But it will not be well with the wicked; nor will he prolong his days, which are as a shadow, because he does not fear before God.

Is it not shameful that we have been subsidizing consumption and practicing the economics of laziness? As stated in Proverbs 12:27 (NKJV):
The lazy man does not roast what he took in hunting,
But diligence is man’s precious possession.

Is it not laziness of the highest order that one of the largest producers of crude oil in the world exports crude and imports refined products at cut-throat costs? It is incomprehensible laziness that an oil producing country would decline to zero refining capacity! There is no gainsaying the fact that we have become the laughing stock of other oil producing countries in the world.

It is in our collective interest to bring this aberration to an end, taking advantage of the dip in oil prices to effect a phased replacement of the subsidy regime with domestic production. Whereas the buzzword in the subsidy debate is “subsidy removal”, we are advocating “subsidy replacement”. Subsidy replacement would entail the adoption of targeted palliatives that would ensure that the benefits of intervention get to the so-called average Nigerian for whom it is designed while taking steps to restore full capacity for domestic production. This must be communicated effectively and transparently to stakeholders including the labour unions.

A crucial step in transparent communication would be full investigation into the past five years of the subsidy regime and the prosecution of culprits including those indicted in past probes. Transparent communication would also entail explaining to Nigerians why the pump price of fuel has not had a direct proportional relationship with changing global crude oil prices such that the pump price is adjusted with every significant drop in oil prices. For example, it will be very interesting to know what happened with respect to the landing cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) between June 2014 when the price of crude was 115 dollars per barrel , and January 2015 when it fell below 50 dollars per barrel .

Without a doubt, the ultimate solution to the subsidy conundrum lies in optimally functional refineries. While we appreciate the current efforts towards restructuring the downstream sector, we also need to explore innovative approaches to domestic refining; in this regard, the need for modular refineries cannot be overemphasized.

In relation to the upstream sector, we maintain that now that crude is fast losing its value, is the best time to diversify, and that diversification can only succeed when accompanied with devolution of powers in a restructured federal system. Indeed, the summary of our assessment of the entire framework of governance and public policy is that, without restructuring, this administration may achieve little or no significant and sustainable success.

•Critical aspects of financial management
First, flowing from the issue of fuel subsidy, the government must examine carefully the argument by economists that sound monetary policy, including proper management of the exchange rate regime by the CBN, would eliminate the need for subsidies. The intricate connection between monetary policy on the one hand, and the fuel subsidy debacle on the other, makes the management of the CBN a major concern.

As regulator, the CBN keeps some amount of depositors’ funds on behalf of the commercial or deposit money banks thereby controlling liquidity, which is the amount of money in circulation. It does this by what is called the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), which is the percentage of depositor’s funds that every commercial bank must keep with the CBN. Over the years, the CBN, through its CRR and interest rate policies, has been increasing the amount of money in circulation, creating a situation known as excess liquidity. It then goes on to buy back this excess money in circulation by issuing treasury bills to the same banks and other investors through the Open Market Operations (OMO); a monetary policy tool used in buying or selling short term government securities (Treasury Bills) to control money supply. Simply put, the government tells the banks, “give me your excess money (which I have unwittingly or generously created for you) and I will pay you back with interest.”

Roughly put, it is almost like an already heavily indebted shop owner selling goods at a discounted price, such that the buyer is able to purchase much more than he is able to transport home. Then the shop owner offers to store the excess goods in his own store and to pay the buyer heavy interest when he returns to collect the goods. The same indebted store owner then cries out, “I’m broke o! My debt burden is killing me o!”

To the discerning, the CBN currently contributes negatively to the Nigerian state in more ways than one. Firstly, the CBN has become a conduit for politicians to drain the nation. Otherwise, how can a letter of barely two paragraphs addressed to the current CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, by the then National Security Adviser (NSA), Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd.), become the Authority to Incur Expenditure (AIE) leading to cash flow of $47 million (US dollars) and several millions of euros? In decent climes, the CBN Governor cannot continue in office while the NSA is accounting for his alleged misdeeds.

Secondly, another negative contribution by the CBN is the needless obscurity it has created regarding currency in circulation. It was not so in the past. For instance, S. 43 (2) of the CBN Decree (now Act) No. 24 of 1991 stipulates:
without prejudice to the provision of S1 of this section, the President may direct the Auditor General of the Federation to conduct an examination of the Bank, and submit a report thereon relating to the issue, re-issue, exchange and withdrawal of currency notes and coins by the Bank and the Bank shall provide all necessary facilities for the purpose of the examination.

This vital sub-section was completely removed in the current CBN Act 2007, thereby making it possible for the CBN to decide the printing of the Nigerian currency, amounts to be printed, currencies to be destroyed (of which the CBN staff can take as much of such dirty notes as they like and inject back into the system while keeping all of us in the dark) without any check and balances stipulated in S. 43 (2) of the previous CBN Act No. 24 of 1991.

This major lacuna has not only aided and abetted corruption, it presently compounds the fight against corruption especially in the apex bank.

We need to remind ourselves some basic truths about the CBN:
i.That the apex bank is not a conglomerate of the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers and the Morgans;
ii.That the CBN is not a privately-controlled banking agency; and
iii.That the CBN is simply not the US Fed.

The wealth of the Central Bank of Nigeria belongs to the people of Nigeria, not the governor and staff of the CBN. Our foreign reserves could be used to drive infrastructural development with a view to building a strong local industrial base and ensuring a solid financial services sector rather than for political and unaccountable misadventures. It is important to add that, rather than mere devaluation of the naira, a strong local productive base that widens Nigeria’s foreign exchange window is the lasting solution to the lingering currency crisis, especially the shortage of the dollar relative to the naira.

Finally, if we are serious about sound financial management, a more significant reduction in the size and cost of running government will be required than this present administration has been able to effect. The government re-sizing process has been hampered by structural anomalies and constitutional constraints. For instance, of what use is a bloated legislature that could potentially gulp 25 per cent of the entire national recurrent budget? Of what use is a profligate governmental structure characterized by minuscule but treasury-draining federating units? Of what use is a constitutional provision for the appointment of thirty-six ministers even when we have no need for so many?

As for the state governments, care must be taken not to provoke the rage of poorly paid civil servants by reducing the minimum wage of already impoverished workers. What they should do is devise a reasonable policy direction that will lead to a reduction in the salaries of politicians and political appointees, reduce security votes, significantly trim the size and cost of governance, and then embark on vigorous revenue mobilization strategies.

The status quo in perspective
Fellow Nigerians, let it be known that in spite of the rejection of our pre-election call for a transition period, Nigeria is now a nation in transition. This transition period will predictably be followed by a revolution which will, in turn, be followed by a reformation that will eventually usher in the desired transformation of our nation. A key outcome of this process will be the emergence of a true People’s Constitution that will facilitate national integration and provide a suitable governmental framework for the Nigeria of our dreams – “a truly federal state with such powers vested exclusively on the federal government as are necessary to firmly and prosperously knit together the federating units upon which residual powers shall be vested.”

That promise of true federalism is contained in Article 14 of the Nigerian Charter for National Reconciliation and Integration, which was unanimously adopted and signed by the delegates to the 2014 National Conference, including myself, as the basis of our union. I appeal to Mr. President not to ignore the report of the 2014 National Conference! God went ahead of you to provide a navigational map with which you can begin to steer the ship of state to a safe destination.

The APC may have refused to participate in the 2014 National Conference, but the report of that conference is completely in tandem with the promise of the APC Manifesto. The APC Manifesto and the report of the 2014 National Conference are a tag team in waiting, not a thesis and antithesis. Just as this government adopted the Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information System (IPPIS), the Government Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) and the Treasury Single Account (TSA) , which were conceived by the Goodluck Jonathan administration, the Buhari-led government should embrace the report of the 2014 National Conference.

That report may have been produced under a PDP government but it is not a PDP document. It is a Nigerian people’s document. All the delegates to the 2014 National Conference, East, West, North, and South endorsed the report without a single vote on any issue.
2016: Higher grounds and greater heights

For Nigeria, the year of higher grounds and greater heights is the year of restructuring. It is the year when we can begin to rebuild her structures towards a new political order characterized by true and viable federalism that will usher in a new economic order. As I stated in a previous address titled “Nigeria Beyond 2015”: “One of the first fruits of this new economic order will be the emergence of Regional Economic Zones. In this regard, Nigeria will experience the rise of megacities across the six geopolitical zones such that there will be six unique models of the Dubai experience.”

The Dubai model will integrate communities, districts, states and geopolitical zones around efficient governance, human capital development, infrastructural development, socio-cultural development, safety and security. Each of these “Dubais” will constitute an economic hub integrating the states within each geopolitical zone such that at least six states will be integrated into a zonal hub; each of the current 36 states will, in turn, facilitate the rise of an economic hub integrating three senatorial districts; and each of the senatorial districts will, in turn, facilitate the emergence of an economic hub integrating the Local Government Areas within their delineation. Internal revenue generation and massive job creation will be the outcome so much so that the federating units, being empowered to harness the resources within their respective jurisdictions, will fund a regionally and globally influential and powerful federal government. Such structural re-arrangement, backed by good governance at all levels, will facilitate tremendous improvement in standard of living, bring our people out of poverty and facilitate the prosperity and wellbeing of Nigerians.

In conclusion, I have observed that this government has been laying emphasis on 2 Ds – Deregulation and Diversification. However, the diversification policy cannot be pursued without Devolution and to devolve effectively means to restructure the geo-polity and review our forms of government. Therefore, the government needs to update to 3 Ds. We cannot afford to sweep devolution of powers under the carpet.

To the government and people of Nigeria, I say: “use the keys”! The bunch of keys in the parable of the mansion represents the power of government bestowed on it by the people – the power to give the nation the needed structural, cultural, institutional and constitutional change. Rather than bemoan the depletion of our revenues or complain about how broke the nation is, all we need do is use the keys to unlock the staggering potential of our great nation, to empower the various geopolitical zones to develop at their respective paces, and to facilitate the emergence of viable federating units that can contribute meaningfully and diversely to the common goal of building a great and prosperous nation.

Mr. President, Sir, please use the keys and make real the promise of change! There is no better time than now! Go, PMB, GO! For such a time as this, God and Nigerians have brought you back into power. Like an arrow in the hands of Almighty God, hit the main target. Make hay while the sun shines. Strike the iron while it is hot and trust God and posterity to judge you right for saving Nigeria from a self-imposed debilitating structural defect. Remember, only those who dare drive the world forward.
Thank you for listening. God bless you, and God bless Nigeria.
• Pastor ‘Tunde Bakare is the founder of Latter Rain Assembly, End-Time Church