Nigeria is bracing for a potentially devastating flood season, with official projections showing that over 30,000 communities nationwide fall within varying flood risk categories, according to the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) unveiled on Wednesday.

The Minister of Water Resources, and Sanitation, Prof Joseph Utsev disclosed that 14,118 communities across 266 Local Government Areas in 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory are classified as high-risk zones.

The minister reveals that the 2026 AFO report also shows that 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs fall under moderate risk, while 923 communities in 77 LGAs are projected to experience low flood impact.

The reports also indicate that major urban centres such as Abuja, Lagos, Ibadan and Port Harcourt expected to witness flash and urban flooding driven by intense rainfall, rapid urbanisation, and inadequate drainage systems.

The reports also shows that coastal and riverine is also projected to affect key states including Bayelsa, Delta, Lagos, Rivers and Ondo, where rising sea levels and tidal surges are expected to disrupt livelihoods, ecosystems, and transportation networks.

He revealed that the Federal Government is scaling up investments in hydrological infrastructure, including automated river gauge stations and enhanced data systems, to improve the accuracy and timeliness of flood forecasts.

He said beyond the statistics, the government is leveraging advanced technology, with NIHSA deploying a hybrid AI-integrated modelling system and a real-time flood dashboard to support proactive risk management and emergency response.

Utsev emphasized that flood forecasting must translate into concrete action, warning that data alone is insufficient without community-level preparedness.

He called on state governments and local authorities to integrate flood risk into urban planning, improve drainage infrastructure, and enforce environmental regulations.

The minister further stressed that Nigeria’s flood challenge is occurring at a time when the country is pursuing a broader economic transition under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, shifting focus from oil dependency to a water-based economy.

According to him, water resources, if effectively managed, hold the potential to drive agricultural expansion, energy generation, transportation, and economic diversification, even as the country grapples with the risks associated with climate change.

In a welcome address, the Director General of Nigeria Hydrological service Agency (NIHSA) , Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, said the 2026 outlook marks a transition from traditional flood forecasting to what he described as a “Flood Risk Intelligence Architecture,” powered by a Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling system.

According to him, the upgraded system is designed to improve forecast accuracy, reduce false alarms, and extend early warning lead times for vulnerable communities across the country.

He noted that the AFO has evolved into a critical national planning tool, providing scientific predictions and data-driven guidance for policymakers, emergency responders, and stakeholders involved in disaster risk management.

“This year’s forecast is the product of a comprehensive, in-house modelling process, reflecting our commitment to capacity building and institutional resilience,” Mohammed said.

The Director General explained that the agency has also upgraded its flood dashboard into a full-scale Decision-Support Geo-Intelligence System, enabling real-time visualization of flood scenarios and impacts.

According to him the platform is integrated with a mobile application to improve public access to flood alerts and information.

He added that a dedicated team of NIHSA flood marshals will support the system by responding to public inquiries and providing technical assistance.

Mohammed emphasized that the outlook is not only a forecasting tool but also a strategic instrument for safeguarding lives, protecting livelihoods, and enhancing national preparedness against recurring flood disasters.

The Guardian however recalls that nearly three years after the Federal Government pledged to release a comprehensive white paper on flood control, frustration is mounting over the prolonged delay, raising fresh concerns about Nigeria’s preparedness for recurring flood disasters.

In August 2023, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Terlumun Utsev, had assured Nigerians that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would soon unveil the document, based on the report of the Presidential Flood Prevention Committee.

The report, submitted in the final days of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, was expected to provide a comprehensive policy framework for addressing perennial flooding across the country.

However, with the 2026 rainy season already setting in, and an alarming potentially devastating flood season, the white paper still remains unreleased.

Stakeholders have described the delay as a troubling sign of policy inertia, warning that it leaves federal and state authorities without a coordinated national strategy to mitigate flood risks.

Experts say the absence of a clear, actionable framework has weakened proactive planning, particularly as forecasts by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency continue to predict severe flooding in several states each year.

Environmental analysts note that while some states have implemented stopgap measures, such as evacuation advisories, demolition of structures on waterways, and public sensitisation campaigns, these efforts fall short of the systemic reforms envisioned in the committee’s report.

Communities along major river basins, especially the Niger and Benue troughs, remain highly vulnerable, with many residents facing seasonal displacement due to the lack of durable flood control infrastructure.

Policy observers also raise accountability concerns, noting that the white paper was expected to outline critical elements such as funding mechanisms, institutional responsibilities, and enforcement frameworks.

“There is a clear gap between policy promise and implementation,” a disaster risk expert said. “Without the white paper, there is no unified roadmap guiding flood prevention efforts across Nigeria.”

The National Flood Early Warning Centre under the Federal Ministry of Environment had alerted that several locations across 10 states could experience heavy rainfall and possible flooding between April 8 and April 12, 2026.

According to an earlier notice signed by the Director of the Erosion, Flood and Coastal Zone Management Department, Usman Bokani, communities in Ebonyi, Anambra, Ogun, Taraba, Cross River, Benue, Imo, Delta, Rivers, and Abia states were identified as high-risk areas.