The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), estimates that about 133 million Nigerians are multidimensionally poor. That means they do not just lack access to finance, they also lack access to basic healthcare, education, jobs and a good living environment.

The 133 million is as contained in the 2022 NBS multidimensional poverty index (MPI) report, with the subsidy removal and the resulting hyperinflation of 2023/2024 that has drained the purchasing power of average citizens, the number of multidimensionally poor according to the latest World Bank report is 140 million or 63 per cent.
For a country of over 200 million people to have over 60 per cent of its citizens facing abject poverty is a huge challenge that can scare even the bravest of leaders.

That is the challenge the present administration came face to face with on assumption of office in May 2023 that forced it to run riots with different economic reform measures, the removal of fuel subsidy, the unification of the foreign exchange rates and tax reforms.

As of today, by all macroeconomic indicators, Nigeria’s economy is beginning to show signs of recovery. Inflation is easing even though not at the rate expected, foreign reserves have climbed above $50 billion, and the government is now boasting that confidence in the economy is returning.

Like Tope Fasua, the Senior Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters stated at a different event on Thursday last week, without a solid macroeconomic structure, all efforts at lifting people out of poverty will come to naught as according to him, “you can’t put something on nothing.”

But beyond all the perceived improvements, for millions of Nigerians, nothing has changed as the improvements have not translated into cheaper food, better healthcare, more jobs or higher incomes.

It is that disconnect between economic stability and everyday living conditions that the Federal Government hopes to address with the launch of a $3.05 billion package of social investment and human capital programmes under the Renewed Hope Development Plan (2026-2030).

The package, officially launched on Thursday last week, comprising the $1.25 billion Nigeria Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Additional Financing (NG-CARES AF), the $300 million Solutions for Internally Displaced and Host Communities (SOLID) initiative, and the $1.5 billion Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity (HOPE) programme, signals a strategic shift in government policy. Rather than focusing solely on stabilising the economy, the government is now attempting to convert macroeconomic gains into measurable improvements in people’s welfare. This new move by the government is also perhaps the clearest acknowledgement yet that economic reforms alone do not automatically reduce poverty.

Speaking at the event, President Bola Tinubu described the initiatives as the bridge between economic recovery and improved household welfare. According to him, “stronger economic indicators must ultimately translate into jobs, better schools, quality healthcare and stronger communities.”

The programmes target four areas that economists identify as critical drivers of multidimensional poverty, income, education, healthcare and resilience against economic shocks.

NG-CARES which its first phase originally began in September 2021, is a $750 million World Bank assisted programme, it is a programme for result (P4R) project and seeks to expand support for smallholder farmers, micro and small businesses and vulnerable households through livelihood assistance and community projects. The first phase ended in December 2025, impacting 17.6 million Nigerians, a result that led to the World Bank’s approval of another $500 million additional financing for the second phase with a target to impact 22 million Nigerians.

SOLID focuses on internally displaced persons and communities devastated by insecurity and climate-related disasters, replacing emergency relief with long-term economic recovery.

HOPE invests directly in Nigeria’s human capital by improving governance, strengthening primary healthcare and enhancing learning outcomes in public schools.

Combined, the initiatives represent one of Nigeria’s largest coordinated investments in social protection and human capital in recent years.

Unlike previous interventions that often operated independently, the government says the programmes will be implemented through a coordinated ward-based approach involving federal, state and local governments.
Laudable as the intention of the government may be, the central question remains, can $3.05 billion lift 133 million Nigerians out of poverty over the next four years?

$3.05 billion at current exchange rate of N1,384/$, is approximately N4.22 trillion. This translates to $22.93 or N31,735 per person in four years. What this simply means is that the government plans to spend $5.73 or N7,930 on each person per year.

Social critics and economists believe it can, but they are also quick to add that poverty is reduced not by the size of the budget, but by the quality of governance surrounding its implementation.

Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the initiative marks an important transition from macroeconomic stabilisation to inclusive economic transformation.
For the programmes to have the desired impact, Yusuf said the programme design must reflect local conditions, minimise opportunities for corruption and political capture, and ensure that benefits reach intended beneficiaries efficiently and transparently.

Equally important, according to him, is the need to situate social interventions within a broader structural reform framework. “Poverty cannot be sustainably reduced by transfers alone”, he said. “Insecurity, high food inflation, weak agricultural productivity and elevated production costs remain fundamental drivers of deprivation and exclusion. Addressing these structural constraints is indispensable to achieving durable improvements in welfare.”

He noted that the priority now is to ensure that implementation is transparent, well targeted and measurable, so that improved macroeconomic performance is translated into better welfare, stronger productivity and a broader sharing of the benefits of reform.

On his part, Lead Director, Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), Barr. Eze Onyekpere, said poverty reduction is not a stand-alone programme, but the concentric circle of creating value across different value chains. He said beyond the programmes which for him is not so necessary, the government should reduce importation and encourage patronage of made in Nigeria goods and services. It should also build local capacity in an inclusive policy environment where no one is left behind. He also said that trade, education, fiscal, monetary, industrial, labour and productivity policies are central to poverty reduction.

He wondered why the government is subsidising food importation while neglecting local farmers.
Despite the ambitious design, the programmes face familiar obstacles that have undermined previous poverty reduction initiatives.

A professor of Accounting and Financial Management at the Lead City University, Ibadan, Godwin Oyedokun said Nigeria’s history is replete with well-intentioned programmes. He recalled Operation Feed the Nation and Better Life Programme, N-Power, TraderMoni, and the National Social Investment Programme, that achieved only limited and often unsustainable results.

He said the critical question is not whether the programmes are well designed, but whether they will be implemented with integrity, transparency, and measurable impact.

“What could make this initiative different is a stronger emphasis on technology-driven beneficiary identification, digital payment systems, independent monitoring, and clear performance indicators”, he said, adding, “If funds are transferred directly to verified beneficiaries, supported by robust data systems and periodic audits, the risks of leakages, political interference, and duplication can be substantially reduced.

“Sustainable poverty reduction also requires linking social assistance with job creation, skills development, agricultural productivity, and access to finance, rather than focusing solely on cash transfers.”

For the Executive Director Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC)/ Transparency International Nigeria, Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, Nigeria’s poverty challenge is enormous and requires bold interventions. However, he said, ambitious programmes must be matched by equally ambitious governance systems, institutional capacity and accountability mechanisms.

He said many of the previous efforts at reducing poverty delivered below expectations due to weak governance, poor coordination, political interference, inadequate targeting, corruption, and the absence of effective monitoring and evaluation.

“The ultimate measure of success will not be the size of the funding or the number of programmes launched, but whether they produce measurable improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians”, he said.

As experts have said, the significance of the $3.05 billion package lies not only in its size but also in the thinking behind it. It reflects an emerging recognition that sustainable economic growth requires parallel investments in people. They say for the programmes to succeed, there should be publicly available implementation guidelines, clearly defined eligibility criteria, independent monitoring mechanisms, regular public reporting, and open disclosure of beneficiaries and expenditure, while respecting applicable privacy standards.

Nigerians believe that if successfully implemented, the programmes could strengthen household resilience, improve productivity, reduce multidimensional poverty and support Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy.

By all standards, $3.05 billion alone will not lift 133 million Nigerians out of poverty within four years. Its success will depend on whether the funds create lasting jobs, improve schools and healthcare, support farmers and vulnerable households, and avoid the leakages that undermined previous interventions. For millions of Nigerians, the real test will not be the size of the package, but whether their daily lives begin to improve