…Advocates accountability in Nigeria’s disaster risk financing framework

A sustainability and adaptation expert has called for stronger community-led flood preparedness measures ahead of Nigeria’s peak flooding season, while also advocating greater accountability in the country’s disaster risk financing framework to ensure resources are effectively deployed for prevention and response efforts.

The expert, Opeyemi Ogundeji, a PhD researcher in the Department of Sustainability Studies at the University of Ibadan and an adaptation and resilience specialist, warned that thousands of communities across the country remain vulnerable to flooding despite existing early warning systems and preparedness frameworks.

She noted that floods have increasingly become one of the most recurring hazards globally, causing widespread damage to lives, infrastructure, and livelihoods. According to her, Nigeria’s preparedness efforts are supported by the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) released by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA), which provides seasonal flood forecasts to guide planning and response activities.

Ogundeji explained that the outlook combines traditional hydrological modelling with ground-based data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools to improve the accuracy of flood predictions. Beyond forecasting, she said the report offers actionable information on the likely timing, duration, and peak periods of flooding, enabling authorities and communities to make informed decisions and strengthen preparedness.

She stated that the outlook categorises flood-prone areas into high, medium, and low-risk zones. High-risk areas, she explained, are locations where flooding is expected to pose severe threats to lives, property, infrastructure, and livelihoods and may require evacuation planning. Medium-risk areas face potential impacts on farmlands, residential outskirts, and local roads, while low-risk areas still require public awareness and precautionary measures despite a lower likelihood of flooding.

The researcher disclosed that the most critical flooding period in 2026 is expected between July and September. During this period, she said about 30,707 communities, 4,792 healthcare facilities, 10,684 educational institutions, and approximately 4.2 million hectares of farmland could be affected by flooding.

She further identified 34 states and the Federal Capital Territory as high-risk locations during the peak flood season. These include Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, the Federal Capital Territory, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara.

Explaining the causes of flooding in Nigeria, Ogundeji said the phenomenon results from a combination of atmospheric, hydrological, and human factors. These include intense rainfall, rising river levels, coastal storms, and inflows from trans-boundary river basins, all of which are being exacerbated by climate variability.

She, however, stressed that human activities have significantly worsened flood impacts, citing poor urban planning, deforestation, blocked drainage channels, and unregulated land development as major factors that turn natural hazards into large-scale disasters.

While acknowledging that the 2025 flood season recorded some improvement in reducing impacts compared to 2024, she maintained that significant gaps remain in the country’s preparedness and resilience systems.

To address these challenges, Ogundeji called for greater transparency and accountability in the National Disaster Risk Financing Framework. She questioned how available funds are allocated, who benefits from them, and how sustainability is being built into disaster prevention and response mechanisms.

She also urged stronger implementation of flood preparedness measures coordinated through the National Economic Council, particularly directives requiring states to clear drainage systems, identify vulnerable populations, and activate emergency response mechanisms.

According to her, households and private sector actors must also comply with their responsibilities, especially regarding waste management practices that contribute to flooding.

The adaptation specialist also advocated expanding the National Preparedness and Response Campaign led by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), arguing that partnerships with grassroots organisations would improve the dissemination of flood information and preparedness messages to vulnerable communities.

She recommended decentralising NiHSA’s flood sensitisation programmes to local government areas to ensure rural populations are adequately reached. In addition, she called for strengthening community-based organisations to serve as trainers and first responders in local flood preparedness efforts.

Emphasising the importance of sustained action, Ogundeji warned against treating flood management as a seasonal exercise driven only by imminent threats. She suggested that remote working arrangements could be considered in highly flood-prone urban centres during peak flooding periods to minimise exposure and reduce disruptions.

She concluded that Nigeria cannot continue to experience avoidable losses from recurring floods, stressing that while warning systems and policy frameworks are already in place, stronger political commitment, improved institutional coordination, and greater citizen compliance are urgently needed to protect lives, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure.