Experts have sharply criticised recent recommendations by the World Bank urging Nigeria to deepen fuel importation and fully liberalise its downstream petroleum sector.

It warned that such policy direction could derail the country’s drive for energy self-sufficiency, undermining local refining investments and breaching existing legal frameworks.

The experts argued that the advice, contained in the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update, was not only ill-timed but also economically regressive, coming at a time when Nigeria is making significant strides toward expanding domestic refining capacity and reducing import dependence.

An energy economist and professor, Ken Ife, faulted the position during a national TV interview on Nigeria’s economic outlook, noting that while parts of the World Bank’s report were analytically sound, its recommendation on fuel importation ran counter to Nigeria’s long-term economic and energy strategy.

According to him, the advice contradicts the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which mandates priority supply of domestic crude to local refiners under the Domestic Crude Obligation framework.

Ife warned that a renewed reliance on fuel imports would expose Nigeria to heightened external shocks, worsen foreign exchange pressures and discourage ongoing investments in domestic refining infrastructure, particularly at a time when private sector participation was beginning to scale up capacity.

He further questioned the empirical basis of the World Bank’s recommendation, describing it as inconsistent with prevailing global market realities and lacking sufficient data support.

While acknowledging the World Bank’s accurate assessment of Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth projections and sectoral performance, Ife cautioned that the World Bank’s position on fuel policy could ultimately worsen, rather than improve, economic conditions.

Echoing similar concerns, another expert, Kelvin Emmanuel, also criticised the World Bank’s position, describing it as flawed and disconnected from current market fundamentals.

Emmanuel disclosed that the World Bank had reportedly withdrawn the contested Nigeria Development Update from its website.

“The World Bank has retracted the report. If you check the World Bank Nigeria website, you will see that the document has been taken down,” he said.

Emmanuel dismissed claims that imported petrol could be cheaper than locally refined products, insisting that the prevailing global pricing dynamics make such assumptions untenable.

He explained that rising crude oil prices largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had significantly altered global pricing structures, noting that while future prices hovered around $100 per barrel, spot prices are considerably higher.

According to him, any perception that imported fuel is cheaper may be linked to compromises in product quality.

Emmanuel also rejected assertions that fuel prices in Nigeria were excessively high, maintaining that domestic prices remained relatively lower than those in neighbouring countries.

Also weighing in, a legal and energy policy expert, Prof. Dayo Ayoade, warned that rising global crude oil prices could trigger immediate and far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s downstream sector, particularly in the absence of a fully effective naira-for-crude framework.