The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, has attributed the sustained rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation to the Middle East crisis.

Yusuf, who was reacting to the May 2026 inflation rate released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Monday, said the inflation uptick appears to be more of an external shock phenomenon and domestic structural headwinds than a reflection of domestic macroeconomic instability.

The NBS has reported an inflation rate of 15.93 per cent for May, up from the 15.69 per cent in April. It also reported a food inflation rate of 16.96 per cent in May, up from 16.06 per cent in April.

He said the marginal increase of 0.24 per cent in headline inflation from 15.69% in April 2026 to 15.93 per cent in May 2026, reflects the continuing impact of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets and supply chains. “The surge in crude oil prices, elevated marine insurance costs, disruptions to shipping routes and higher import costs have all combined to exert upward pressure on domestic prices”, he said, adding that the policy priority of the government should therefore be to tackle the structural cost drivers of inflation, particularly insecurity, food supply constraints, transportation costs and energy prices. “These are the pressure points that matter most to citizens’ welfare and business competitiveness”, he said.

“The major drivers of inflation remain food and beverages, transportation, housing, energy, health and education, which collectively account for about 87 per cent of headline inflation. This highlights the reality that the inflation burden is concentrated in the basic necessities consumed by ordinary Nigerians.

“Food inflation at 16.96 per cent remains particularly concerning, as it continues to outpace headline inflation and weaken household purchasing power.”

Yusuf said a major structural factor behind elevated food prices is the persistent insecurity in key food-producing regions, which has displaced farming communities, reduced cultivated acreage, disrupted agricultural supply chains and increased transportation costs. “The consequence is lower agricultural output and tighter food supply, which continue to fuel food inflation. Therefore, tackling insecurity is not only a security imperative; it is also a critical inflation-management strategy”, he said.

He noted that the inflation challenge remains largely cost-push in nature, noting that the solution lies less in monetary tightening and more in addressing the structural drivers of production and distribution costs. “Government intervention should focus on improving food security, strengthening logistics infrastructure, investing in mass transit and rail transportation, enhancing energy security, and restoring safety in farming communities”, Yusuf said.

He said the recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East and the moderation of crude oil prices from about $90 per barrel to approximately $83 per barrel provide grounds for cautious optimism. “If geopolitical tensions continue to ease and supply chain conditions improve, inflationary pressures could begin to moderate from the third quarter of 2026”, he noted.