UN report projects global economic output to grow 2.7%

Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) secured N1.144 trillion at its first Nigerian Treasury Bills auction of 2026, with stop rates climbing across all maturities as investors continued to show a strong appetite for government securities.

This was as global economic output was forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent this year, slightly below the 2.8 per cent estimated for last year and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, released yesterday by the United Nations (UN).

The auction, held on January 7, recorded N108.17 billion raised for the 91-day bill, N48.23 billion for the 182-day tenor, and N987.78 billion for the 364-day paper.

The results highlighted an upward re-pricing of risk-free assets, particularly at the long end of the curve, as investors sought government instruments as a hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty.

Despite the higher rates, demand remained resilient, underlining robust system liquidity and investors’ readiness to lock in elevated yields. The one-year paper once again dominated the auction, accounting for the bulk of funds raised.

The 364-day NTB emerged as the centrepiece, with the DMO raising N987.78 billion from an offer of N800 billion, while total subscriptions reached approximately N1.38 trillion. The stop rate for this tenor rose to 18.47 per cent, marking the largest increase across the curve.

Market participants noted that the strong interest reflected a preference for longer-dated instruments offering better yield and protection against reinvestment risk in a high-rate environment.

ECONOMIC growth in the United States (U.S.) is projected at two per cent this year, compared to 1.9 per cent last year, supported by monetary and fiscal easing. In the European Union (EU), economic growth is forecast at 1.3 per cent in 2026, down from 1.5 per cent in 2025, as higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports.

For the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia, growth is projected at 2.1 per cent in 2026, mostly unchanged from 2025, even as the Ukraine crisis continues to weigh on macroeconomic conditions, the report said.

Meanwhile, in East Asia, growth is projected at 4.4 per cent in 2026, down from 4.9 per cent in 2025 as the boost from front-loaded exports fades. Output in Japan is expected to expand by 0.9 per cent in 2026, compared with 1.2 per cent in 2025.

In South Asia, growth is forecast at 5.6 per cent in 2026, easing from 5.9 per cent, led by India’s 6.6 per cent expansion, while in Western Asia, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026, up from 3.4 per cent in 2025, according to the report.

Output in Africa, where high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant risks, is projected to grow by four per cent in 2026, marginally up from 3.9 per cent in 2025.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, output is expected to expand by 2.3 per cent in 2026, slightly down from 2.4 per cent in 2025, amid moderate growth in consumer demand and a mild recovery in investment.

According to the report, global trade proved resilient in 2025, expanding by a faster-than-expected 3.8 per cent despite elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs.

The expansion was driven by the front-loading of shipments early in the year and robust growth in services trade. However, trade growth is projected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2026.