The Tinubu Media Support Group (TMSG) has disagreed with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest economic growth forecast for Nigeria, arguing that the projection does not accurately reflect the country’s potential.

In a joint statement issued in Abuja by its Chairman, Emeka Nwankpa, and Secretary, Dapo Okubanjo, the group said the IMF’s estimate of 3.4 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2025 falls short of capturing the gains from recent policy reforms.

The IMF had in its Article IV consultation report upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 growth outlook from 3.2 per cent in April 2024 to 3.4 per cent. Despite the revision, the Fund expressed concern about low per capita growth and outlined risks linked to falling oil prices, persistent inflation, and widespread poverty.

It recommended that Nigeria intensify fiscal consolidation, expand targeted social spending, maintain restrictive monetary policy, and advance structural reforms.

Reacting to the projection, TMSG stated that while the revision marked an improvement, it still does not align with observed domestic economic indicators.

The group cited Nigeria’s fourth quarter 2024 GDP growth of 3.84 per cent, describing it as evidence that previous IMF projections—such as the 3.2 per cent figure for 2024—had underestimated actual performance.

TMSG noted that concerns over the IMF’s forecasts are not new.

“Experts had questioned the basis for the earlier three per cent projection for 2025,” the group said, adding that over-reliance on oil price trends ignores ongoing diversification efforts in agriculture, manufacturing, and digital services.

The statement referenced the opinion of Prof. Ken Ife, chief economist at ECOWAS, who previously criticised the IMF’s modelling approach. According to TMSG, Prof. Ife argued that the IMF’s assessments do not fully account for Nigeria’s economic structure and reform momentum.

The group also pointed to recent commendations from the IMF regarding Nigeria’s new tax reforms set to begin in January 2026, expressing hope that the Fund would reconsider its current forecast for that year.

“We expect the IMF to take into account the likely impact of the reforms on revenue generation and macroeconomic stability,” the statement read.

TMSG reaffirmed its support for the Independent Media and Policy Initiative’s (IMPI) projection of five per cent growth, describing it as a more accurate reflection of Nigeria’s medium-term outlook given the trajectory of recent reforms.