• Predicts Severe Dry Spell in Oyo, Ogun

The 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has forecast longer rainy seasons for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba States, while Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to experience shorter rainy periods.

The forecast also predicts severe dry spells exceeding 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, while moderate dry spells are expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kogi and Kwara States.

The agency said the “Little Dry Season” (LDS), also known as the August Break, is expected to begin in late July and will be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo, with 28–40 days of little or no rainfall. A moderate LDS is anticipated over Ondo, and parts of Kwara and Edo States.

During the June–August season, a severe dry spell of up to 21 days is predicted for parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.

The SCP, unveiled by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development in Abuja, also forecast early onset of rain in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba, while Borno State is expected to experience a late onset.

“Rainfall cessation is anticipated to be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States. Conversely, a delayed end of season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States,” the forecast stated.

NiMet further predicted that most parts of Nigeria will receive normal annual rainfall, while above-normal rainfall is expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). In contrast, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

The forecast also warned that daytime and nighttime temperatures in January, February, March, and May 2026 are expected to be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of the country.

NiMet cautioned that significant rains in southern Nigeria should not be taken as the official start of the rainy season. Farmers and other rainfall-dependent activities are advised to follow the predicted onset dates or consult NiMet for guidance.

The Minister emphasized the impact of climate variability and climate change on aviation safety, national security, food security, infrastructure development, and the well-being of Nigerians.

“Given the administration’s focus on economic stability, food security, infrastructure resilience, climate adaptation, and protection of lives and livelihoods, timely and accurate weather information is no longer optional, but a strategic enabler of national development and good governance,” he stated.

NiMet Director-General and Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organisation, Prof. Charles Anosike, reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to downscaling the SCP to local farmers across states to enhance climate resilience and agricultural productivity.

He added that NiMet is working to fast-track the deployment of digital advisory services in partnership with local and international collaborators, while emphasizing the need for greater collaboration with state governments and stakeholders to expand the reach of the 2026 SCP.

“NiMet remains committed to providing timely, accurate, and reliable weather and climate information to support a climate-resilient economy,” Prof. Anosike concluded.