The declaration of force majeure by QatarEnergy has triggered a sharp escalation in global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and freight market prices, reflecting growing uncertainty over supply security amid the deepening Middle East crisis.
 
The development has been linked to the wider geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where security disruptions have continued to influence energy transportation corridors and production facilities.
 
Consequently, consumers of cooking gas have begun to feel the pinch of the rise in global oil and gas prices.
 
About 82 per cent of Qatar’s LNG exports are directed to Asian markets, exposing several major economies to the supply shock.
 
China depends on Qatar for roughly 30 per cent of its LNG imports, while India’s reliance ranges between 42 and 52 per cent. South Korea sources between 14 and 19 per cent of its LNG requirements, Taiwan about 25 per cent, and Japan has reportedly shifted more purchases to the volatile spot market.
 
The unfolding Middle East crisis is increasingly described as having moved beyond a regional security issue to a global energy market shock, with LNG contract certainty weakening and price volatility spreading through industrial supply chains.
 
The disruption to QatarEnergy’s LNG supply is expected to ripple into Nigeria through higher global gas prices and market volatility, despite the country being a gas producer. Nigeria still relies partly on imported LPG for domestic cooking needs, meaning that any global supply squeeze could translate into higher cooking gas prices for households and increased inflationary pressure.
 
At the same time, the crisis may present a short-term revenue upside for Nigeria, as buyers seek alternative LNG suppliers, potentially boosting earnings from Nigeria LNG exports.
 
However, rising international gas prices could also complicate domestic gas supply negotiations and increase energy costs for industries and power generation.
 
Overall, the development underscores Nigeria’s exposure to global gas market shocks and highlights the urgency of expanding local gas processing and domestic supply infrastructure.
 
While the United States is already operating near maximum LNG export capacity, the timing of the price surge coincides with the planned commercial export of the Golden Pass liquefaction plant scheduled for this period.

Market data showed that the freight cost of $12.26 per barrel of crude translates to more than $400,000 per day to hire a vessel sailing from the Middle East Gulf to East Asia, marking a significant increase from previous levels.
 
Freight costs for supertankers have also risen to nearly 16 per cent of crude price valuation, compared to the more typical range of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent recorded under stable market conditions.
 
Historical data showed that while crude price averaged $79.092 per barrel in 2024 with freight averaging $1.89 per barrel, the 2025 average crude price stood at $69.126 per barrel while freight rose to $2.41 per barrel.
 
Although Middle East crude producers have not announced production or loading halts and ports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Iraq and Kuwait remain operational, market sentiment continues to reflect caution.
 
Analysts say the freight escalation may push Suezmax and Aframax transportation rates even higher as security uncertainty continues to shape global energy shipping logistics.
  
Local depot owners have raised the price of cooking gas by an average of N100 per kilogramme.
 
Nipco Plc, one of Nigeria’s largest LPG distributors, is now selling at N950 per kilogramme. Navgas Limited is dispensing at N900, while Techno Oil Limited has priced its stock at N885 per kilogramme.
 
The adjustments represent a sharp climb from the previous market average of around N800 per kilogramme.