The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that a 20 per cent rise in international food prices caused by the war in the Middle East could push more than 20 million people in sub-Saharan Africa into food insecurity and leave two million children under the age of five acutely malnourished.

The warning came as the IMF said the conflict is threatening to derail the economic gains recorded across the region after sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with its strongest growth momentum in a decade.

According to the IMF, the region recorded a growth rate of 4.5 percent in 2025, driven by lower macroeconomic imbalances, rising investment, and reforms carried out by several governments.

The IMF noted that inflation in the region declined to about 3.5 percent, while public debt levels also began to fall following reforms such as exchange-rate adjustments, improved spending allocation, and tighter monetary policies.

However, the Fund said the war in the Middle East has introduced fresh economic pressures through rising prices of oil, gas, and fertiliser, disruption of trade routes; and tighter financial conditions.

It stated, “The human costs are equally stark. Food insecurity looms large: the region remains acutely vulnerable to food-price shocks, and the war has already driven up fertilizer and shipping costs.”

The IMF warned that the impact could become more severe if the conflict persists, noting that a prolonged war could further raise commodity prices, worsen financial market conditions, and force sharp fiscal adjustments in countries with large refinancing obligations.

It projected that growth in sub-Saharan Africa would slow to 4.3 percent this year, about 0.3 percentage points below pre-war forecasts, while inflation is expected to rise across the region.

The Fund said although the slowdown may appear mild compared to global standards, it poses a serious concern for Africa because of the need for rapid economic expansion to create jobs for its fast-growing population.

According to the IMF, oil-importing countries, particularly low-income and fragile states, are expected to face worsening trade balances and rising living costs, while oil-exporting nations remain vulnerable to price volatility and excessive spending.

Beyond food insecurity, it warned that declining foreign aid is removing a major support system for vulnerable countries. It said 2025 recorded a sharp structural break in aid flows, with fragile states hardest hit by funding cuts that threaten essential services, especially healthcare.

The Fund added that debt risks are worsening across the region, with more than one-third of countries either already in debt distress or at high risk of falling into it.

It noted that fiscal deficits in 21 countries remain above levels needed to stabilise debt, while rising interest payments and reduced concessional financing are increasing debt-service burdens and limiting spending on development priorities.

The IMF said some governments’ growing reliance on domestic borrowing has also strengthened the link between sovereign debt and banking systems, increasing the risk of financial instability.

To reduce the impact of the crisis, the IMF urged policymakers to focus on controlling inflation, protecting vulnerable groups from rising prices, and avoiding policies that could worsen fiscal pressures.

It advised oil-exporting countries to treat gains from higher oil prices as temporary and use the proceeds to rebuild financial buffers and strengthen social safety nets.

For oil-importing countries with fiscal space, the Fund recommended targeted and time-bound support measures, while countries with limited fiscal capacity were urged to improve spending efficiency and increase domestic revenue generation.

The IMF also stressed the need for governments not to abandon medium-term reforms despite the immediate economic pressures.

According to the Fund, reforms aimed at improving the business environment, strengthening governance and restructuring state-owned enterprises in sectors such as energy, transport and telecommunications remain critical for boosting productivity and attracting investment.

It added that deeper regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area could improve supply-chain resilience and expand market opportunities for local producers.

The IMF further pointed to the potential of digital transformation in areas such as agriculture, healthcare and education, but warned that poor infrastructure remains a major challenge.

It noted that only 53 per cent of the region’s population currently has access to electricity, while just 38 per cent have internet access.

They called on the international community to provide predictable financing, technical support, and capacity-building assistance to help African countries manage the economic shock and sustain reforms.